ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nativefloridian]

Agree Blown Away. Isaac fanning looks beautiful at the moment.

[meriland23]

watching TWC, they think this south shift and continuous westward movement will only lead it into all of cuba, and weakening it very significantly.

[SouthDadeFish]

Isaac has a great outflow channel to the SW easily seen on water vapor imagery:



Also, Windsat made a recent pass and shows a very strong spiral band wrapping around out of the SW towards the core of the storm:

[meriland23]

Isaac has a great outflow channel to the SW easily seen on water vapor imagery:

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/46/wv0lalo.jpg

Also, Windsat made a recent pass and shows a very strong spiral band wrapping around out of the SW towards the core of the storm:

http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/7200 ... lis37p.jpg

Where is the center in these models *grabs glasses*

[Aric Dunn]

well it does have a amazing looking outflow in all quads.

[hurricanefloyd5]

looks to me as if it's moving nw now

[Aric Dunn]

Although recon data looks a little messy still compared to last night this is much improved. next plane shuold begin to get very solid passes especially once the convection build more towards the ne side.

[ozonepete]

One thing that gets my attention is the instability (or lack thereof) in the Gulf of Mexico presently. The instability chart below generally assesses stability by analyzing temperature profiles aloft. Warm air aloft would make the region more stable. Look how low the instability is currently in the Gulf - levels typically seen in late May. What does this have to say about potential intensification in the Gulf?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

Well we will soon enough have the answer after Sunday. If all conditions look really good for a lot of strengthening and it doesn't strengthen as much one would think it's a factor. If it gets as strong or stronger than expected then that isn't a very important factor. If you think of the dynamics involved in a TC strengthening it would seem that there are a lot of factors that could mitigate the lower instability due to warm air aloft. After all a strong TC makes a lot of its own environment, including building a cold anticyclone aloft. Will the thunderstorms around the core have trouble building really high into the troposphere due to weaker lapse rates or will the lapse rates respond to the dynamics of the thunderstorms at the core? Will be interesting to see...

[Bocadude85]

Are the showers that appear to be rotating off the Fla coast related to Isaac in anyway?


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

looks to me as if it's moving nw now

recon fixes do confirm a just about nw movement.

[Stormcenter]

Has he really ever looked "good"?

i think issac doesnt look to good right now

[tolakram]

Rapid scan loop. On the edge of this view so some frames chopped at bottom.

Speed it up for full effect.

Recon showed a NW movement, and I think this view shows it as well.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[hurricanefloyd5]

looks to me as if it's moving nw now

recon fixes do confirm a just about nw movement.

so its taking a nw movement sooner rather then later which could mean a better chance of isaac moving up the west coast of florida and we here in central florida could get a inland tropical storm and tropical storm warnings then

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing that gets my attention is the instability (or lack thereof) in the Gulf of Mexico presently. The instability chart below generally assesses stability by analyzing temperature profiles aloft. Warm air aloft would make the region more stable. Look how low the instability is currently in the Gulf - levels typically seen in late May. What does this have to say about potential intensification in the Gulf?

That might be why the NHC isn't ramping it up to a cat2+ hurricane. It might be why they are keeping it only as a cat 1.....

[SouthFLTropics]

Still looks to be fighting some dry air in the NE Quad...but I do believe it is starting to stack and based on visible and recon I believe that it is heading NW right now. Unfortunately for Haiti it looks like Port-au-prince is going to get some very nasty weather in the next 12-18 hours.

SFT

[wxman57]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

[meriland23]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

thought recon confirrmed NW motion

[cycloneye]

Those members who live in,Jamaica,Bahamas,the Keys,Florida Penninsula and Florida Panhandle can post how things are going in terms of preparations as well post weather observations and web cams on the sticky thread for these areas.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468&hilit=&p=2259853#p2259853

I heard on the news yesterday that the GTMO Naval Base in Cuba was being or possibly get evacuated.

I added also Cuba.

[ozonepete]

I don't see any NW motion (304 deg or greater), possibly WNW. It's easy to be deceived by the satellite loop as your eye is drawn to an area of convection east of the center that is rotating northwestward.

we're getting that from RECON. My eyes are crossed from 3 days of trying to find the center.

[BigB0882]

Does recon even have a reliable center? I don't see how any movement can be confirmed without that. We have had so many different center reports over the last 24 hours.