ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051449
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120805
144030 1519N 07701W 9630 00389 0065 +230 +206 034019 020 /// /// 03
144100 1519N 07659W 9631 00384 0062 +230 +207 039017 019 /// /// 03
144130 1519N 07658W 9628 00385 0061 +234 +207 044014 016 /// /// 03
144200 1519N 07656W 9629 00385 0060 +230 +208 043011 013 /// /// 03
144230 1520N 07654W 9630 00382 0058 +235 +209 061005 008 /// /// 03
144300 1520N 07653W 9629 00383 0057 +235 +210 137005 007 /// /// 03
144330 1520N 07651W 9632 00380 0058 +234 +211 158013 016 /// /// 03
144400 1520N 07650W 9630 00382 0058 +230 +211 155018 020 012 001 00
144430 1520N 07648W 9633 00383 0062 +231 +211 153025 026 014 002 03
144500 1521N 07647W 9624 00393 0065 +230 +212 142029 030 025 000 03
144530 1522N 07647W 9630 00389 0067 +228 +213 135031 032 027 002 00
144600 1524N 07647W 9624 00393 0066 +230 +212 128034 035 030 004 00
144630 1526N 07647W 9633 00388 0067 +230 +211 123038 039 031 003 00
144700 1528N 07647W 9630 00391 0069 +229 +210 119041 041 030 002 03
144730 1528N 07649W 9626 00391 0068 +224 +210 113041 042 /// /// 03
144800 1527N 07650W 9632 00385 0067 +220 +210 111035 040 034 001 00
144830 1526N 07651W 9630 00386 0063 +228 +209 115035 035 034 002 00
144900 1524N 07651W 9630 00383 0060 +229 +207 123028 035 032 002 00
144930 1523N 07651W 9630 00383 0060 +233 +207 134025 027 026 001 00
145000 1522N 07651W 9629 00385 0061 +231 +206 141022 024 024 000 00
$$

[artist]

down to 1005.7, wind out of the SW at 235

[wxman57]

NHC is being quite generous with the 45kt winds on its latest advisory. Recon isn't indicating such winds. Probably just in case as recon isn't finished yet, I guess. Can't hurt anything since it's over the open water. Moving as fast as it is, it should reach the coast of Belize Tuesday morning, if not sooner. And if it tracks into northern Nicaragua or Honduras, which is quite possible, it'll be inland tomorrow afternoon. Chances of regeneration aren't great east of the Yucatan, and it may stay south of the BoC and/or dissipate before it reaches there.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

zoomed out

[BZSTORM]

this site which has recon flight graphics is running (noticed last year it sometimes crashes from too many online users), just mentioning it so if no one is available to plot the graphics that takes some pressure of the obs guys posting in the recon thread http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

[tolakram]

Thanks. That's using the web version of google earth and useful for those who don't want to install GE. Nice link.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051459
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120805
145030 1520N 07651W 9631 00383 0061 +232 +207 145018 020 019 001 00
145100 1519N 07651W 9626 00389 0063 +230 +208 151017 019 021 001 00
145130 1518N 07650W 9630 00388 0065 +229 +209 154020 021 017 000 00
145200 1517N 07649W 9627 00391 0067 +230 +209 151020 021 018 001 00
145230 1516N 07648W 9630 00390 0069 +230 +209 155018 020 023 004 00
145300 1515N 07647W 9630 00394 0076 +223 +209 156022 023 024 005 00
145330 1514N 07646W 9628 00402 0079 +227 +207 152022 023 024 002 00
145400 1513N 07644W 9628 00404 0082 +225 +206 152023 023 023 001 03
145430 1513N 07643W 9627 00405 0084 +226 +206 155025 027 025 003 00
145500 1513N 07642W 9634 00399 0085 +228 +206 152027 027 025 002 03
145530 1512N 07641W 9625 00411 0087 +229 +206 148026 026 023 003 00
145600 1510N 07641W 9630 00405 0086 +229 +206 147024 025 022 003 00
145630 1509N 07642W 9627 00408 0087 +224 +207 151022 023 021 003 00
145700 1508N 07642W 9630 00404 0086 +225 +206 154021 022 020 002 00
145730 1506N 07642W 9630 00407 0088 +225 +206 154022 022 016 002 00
145800 1505N 07642W 9627 00407 0086 +225 +206 152022 023 011 003 00
145830 1503N 07642W 9630 00406 0088 +225 +206 151021 021 010 004 00
145900 1502N 07642W 9628 00410 0089 +225 +206 151020 021 012 002 00
145930 1501N 07642W 9629 00408 0088 +228 +206 153019 019 014 002 00
150000 1459N 07642W 9627 00411 0089 +230 +206 154019 020 014 001 00

[perk]

Yeah the 11:00 am disco clearly tells us that the NHC is all in with the Euro and the GFS solutions.

[wjs3]

Sorry, Artist--are you talking about this set?

URNT15 KNHC 051449
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120805

And this Ob?

144300 1520N 07653W 9629 00383 0057 +235 +210 137005 007 /// /// 03



The 1005.7 (that you highlighted in red over on the recon thread) is not with wind direction 235. The FL winds are out of 137 at 5 knots (the 137005 group later on tells you that). The +235 is, I believe, the air temp (23.5 C)--don't quote me on that. I need to look it up. You can see from the graphic of this set on the recon thread that there's a pretty good shift from NE to SE, but that's it.

[tolakram]

In this loop you can see the exposed LLC and -what looks like- an MLC left far behind and dissipating.

[artist]

Sorry, Artist--are you talking about this set?

URNT15 KNHC 051449
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120805

And this Ob?

144300 1520N 07653W 9629 00383 0057 +235 +210 137005 007 /// /// 03



The 1005.7 (that you highlighted in red over on the recon thread) is not with wind direction 235. The FL winds are out of 137 at 5 knots (the 137005 group later on tells you that). The +235 is, I believe, the air temp (23.5 C)--don't quote me on that. I need to look it up. You can see from the graphic of this set on the recon thread that there's a pretty good shift from NE to SE, but that's it.

yeah, sorry about that. Been since last year since I have refreshed myself.

[wxman57]

No sign of an LLC in recon reports. They're looking all over for it. Appears to have degenerated into a tropical wave.

[tolakram]

[wjs3]

No problem!

The +235 is the temp.

Anyone who wants a refresher, I use the NHOP. There's a whole appendix on Recon codes.

http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/12/pdf/18-app_g.pdf

Page G-8 starts the section on HDOB decoding.

[wjs3]

No sign of an LLC in recon reports. They're looking all over for it. Appears to have degenerated into a tropical wave.

Yeah, I agree, though I would argue there hasn't been one since last night. They are definitely flying more of an invest pattern, sniffing around the wave axis to see if they can close it off. And the VDMs (such as they were) have stopped.

[hurricanes1234]

Ernesto continues to disappoint....I no longer expect this storm to strengthen any further. Such a well organized structure yesterday....very deceiving.

Does anyone think that activity will pick up in late August and early September, when the season's peak occurs?

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[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051509
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120805
150030 1458N 07642W 9630 00408 0090 +226 +206 154019 019 009 001 00
150100 1456N 07642W 9629 00410 0090 +226 +207 152018 019 007 000 00
150130 1455N 07642W 9629 00410 0090 +227 +207 154017 018 006 001 00
150200 1453N 07643W 9633 00407 0091 +227 +208 153016 016 010 002 03
150230 1452N 07643W 9629 00411 0091 +226 +208 148014 015 009 001 00
150300 1451N 07643W 9630 00408 0090 +225 +208 143014 014 009 001 03
150330 1449N 07643W 9630 00410 0091 +225 +209 138013 013 005 002 00
150400 1448N 07643W 9633 00407 0092 +225 +209 134012 012 005 001 00
150430 1446N 07643W 9627 00413 0092 +225 +209 138011 012 009 000 00
150500 1445N 07643W 9627 00412 0092 +225 +209 134010 010 007 001 00
150530 1443N 07643W 9634 00407 0092 +228 +209 129010 010 005 000 00
150600 1442N 07643W 9627 00411 0090 +227 +209 125010 010 004 001 00
150630 1440N 07643W 9633 00406 0090 +226 +209 131009 010 005 002 00
150700 1439N 07643W 9628 00412 0091 +226 +209 124008 009 002 002 00
150730 1437N 07644W 9630 00410 0092 +225 +209 128006 008 004 002 00
150800 1435N 07644W 9627 00413 0093 +226 +209 135007 007 004 001 03
150830 1434N 07644W 9631 00412 0094 +230 +209 139007 007 002 001 00
150900 1432N 07644W 9627 00414 0094 +230 +209 133007 008 001 004 00
150930 1431N 07644W 9629 00412 0093 +225 +209 120007 008 006 001 00
151000 1429N 07644W 9630 00412 0094 +229 +210 116005 006 005 002 0

[wkwally]

As I am watching this I keep thinking of T.S. Don