ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Portastorm]

I have a question in understanding the current conditions that Ernesto is experiencing. In 1995 I was in Destin Fl when Hurricane Opal hit. She was moving very fast as well however that did not seem to have any over all affect on her. Heck, Opal was still a cat 1 when it came through Montgomery Alabama. I can’t remember perfectly but I think Opal was moving north at 18 – 22mph. What is the difference in the two storms? One is getting ripped apart because of the forward progress and the other flourished from it.

By the time Opal began accelerating towards the northern Gulf Coast, she was a well-formed tropical cyclone. Don't forget that the early stages of Opal were slow and lethargic. Ernesto has never been stacked vertically with low and mid level centers. Essentially, Ernesto has never even gotten off the ground, so to speak. Very different systems.

[jinftl]

405 miles to Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua as of 11am advisory (probably more like 390 miles as of this writing)...

Latitude of both Ernesto and Cabo Gracias a Dios is 15.0N. Ernesto hasn't deviated much (except for a slight south wobble) since yesterday from 15.0N+/-....at his current speed of 23 mph due west, we have about 16 hours and this baby will come onshore Nicaragua if he doesn't gain latitude. Let's see if Ernesto has the Olympic spirit and can sprint to the finish line asap!

[tolakram]

latest

['CaneFreak]

Queen has a message they would like to share with everyone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9E-WasNzVpI

[Rgv20]

Below is a Joe Bastardi Tweet...Link: http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell holds with idea. think this is 990 mb with recon winds to hurricane force first landfall.Comeback starts tomorrow

[Lane]

Thank you Portastorm.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051549
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120805
154030 1532N 07649W 9634 00413 0103 +202 +192 127046 048 040 009 00
154100 1533N 07648W 9629 00417 0101 +214 +189 126046 048 040 008 00
154130 1534N 07647W 9632 00414 0102 +213 +187 127046 047 038 005 00
154200 1535N 07646W 9625 00421 0102 +217 +186 128045 048 036 005 00
154230 1536N 07645W 9627 00421 0103 +215 +186 127040 046 036 001 00
154300 1537N 07644W 9634 00417 0106 +213 +187 125040 041 034 003 00
154330 1538N 07643W 9630 00421 0107 +215 +188 126044 045 033 001 00
154400 1540N 07642W 9625 00425 0105 +219 +188 129048 048 032 002 00
154430 1541N 07642W 9634 00417 0106 +214 +189 132049 050 035 006 00
154500 1543N 07641W 9629 00424 0110 +199 +189 130044 046 036 010 00
154530 1544N 07641W 9625 00427 0113 +193 +187 128038 041 036 009 00
154600 1546N 07640W 9630 00424 0113 +199 +184 128040 042 032 006 00
154630 1547N 07639W 9630 00424 0111 +211 +181 128041 042 034 003 00
154700 1549N 07639W 9629 00425 0111 +214 +180 125042 043 033 001 00
154730 1550N 07638W 9630 00427 0113 +212 +180 122040 043 033 003 03
154800 1552N 07637W 9633 00425 0114 +216 +182 121042 043 033 001 00
154830 1553N 07637W 9628 00429 0114 +214 +185 119040 043 031 003 00
154900 1554N 07636W 9634 00424 0113 +220 +187 119038 042 032 002 03
154930 1555N 07635W 9633 00427 0114 +220 +190 117038 038 032 003 00
155000 1556N 07634W 9629 00432 0116 +220 +192 119037 040 033 003 00
$$

[HurricaneAndrew92]

True, but if they can recon found 53kt winds. I think.

[artist]

True, but if they can recon found 53kt winds. I think.

you can have higher winds but not have a closed circulation. Just like in straight line winds during severe thunderstorms, but that doesn't represent a vortex (tornado), just because the winds may be high.

[artist]

True, but if they can recon found 53kt winds. I think.

you can have higher winds but not have a closed circulation. Just like in straight line winds during severe thunderstorms, but that doesn't represent a vortex (tornado), just because the winds may be high.

I knows saying if it s closed will they upgrade to 55kts?

they haven't found a closed low to my knowledge, thus I would think not. Will they mention the higher winds found? Possibly, except remember those winds were at flight level. Surface level winds were found to be in the 40's.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051559
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120805
155030 1557N 07633W 9626 00433 0115 +220 +195 119037 039 033 003 03
155100 1558N 07632W 9627 00433 0115 +220 +197 120037 039 034 003 03
155130 1559N 07631W 9632 00429 0117 +219 +198 119038 039 034 001 00
155200 1600N 07630W 9623 00436 0117 +219 +200 122037 038 033 002 00
155230 1601N 07628W 9633 00429 0118 +220 +201 123039 040 032 002 00
155300 1602N 07627W 9629 00434 0119 +221 +202 123036 040 031 002 00
155330 1603N 07626W 9634 00430 0120 +222 +203 125036 039 030 001 00
155400 1603N 07625W 9630 00435 0121 +220 +204 125035 036 031 001 00
155430 1604N 07624W 9626 00439 0121 +220 +205 122032 035 029 001 00
155500 1605N 07623W 9631 00434 0122 +220 +206 123032 034 030 002 00
155530 1606N 07621W 9630 00438 0123 +220 +207 122033 033 031 001 03
155600 1607N 07620W 9628 00438 0123 +220 +208 125032 033 028 002 00
155630 1608N 07619W 9630 00436 0123 +220 +208 126032 034 030 001 00
155700 1609N 07618W 9634 00435 0124 +220 +208 123033 034 030 002 00
155730 1610N 07617W 9629 00440 0125 +221 +208 123032 034 028 001 00
155800 1611N 07616W 9629 00440 0125 +223 +208 122033 034 031 001 00
155830 1612N 07615W 9631 00439 0126 +225 +208 123034 035 033 000 00
155900 1613N 07613W 9628 00442 0126 +225 +208 123034 035 030 001 00
155930 1613N 07612W 9629 00442 0127 +225 +208 124032 035 030 001 00
160000 1614N 07611W 9627 00445 0127 +227 +208 125033 034 029 001 00
$$

[tolakram]

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto likely an open wave...but who knows what recon will find.53kt flight level winds are our highest currently.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is like chris all over again. Don't see this even making it through the Yucatan. Probably will be looking at naked swirls all day tomorrow saying it is or isn't making a comeback

[CalmBeforeStorm]

With it's low latitude and close proximity to SA Ernesto was going to have probems with it's organization and degeneration into a wave was not that surprising. With that said, I expect some reorganiztion before a landfall on the Yucatan because there is still a very vigorous area of weather there and this area has now cleared South America and has entered into an area of warm waters and low shear. Also, the system was forecast to slow down soon. There is still approx. 800 miles between the system and landfall on the Yucatan. BTW, this seems to be the scenario shown by the 12z GFS (which has had a very good handle on Ernesto so far)which depicts a pretty strong Ernesto making a Yucatan landfall in 72 hours.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051609
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 42 20120805
160030 1615N 07610W 9630 00440 0127 +230 +209 126035 037 030 002 00
160100 1616N 07609W 9628 00442 0126 +230 +209 125033 037 031 002 00
160130 1617N 07608W 9636 00436 0127 +230 +209 125033 035 030 002 00
160200 1618N 07606W 9628 00445 0128 +230 +209 127032 034 029 001 03
160230 1619N 07605W 9632 00441 0128 +230 +209 123032 033 029 001 00
160300 1620N 07604W 9629 00445 0129 +231 +209 122032 032 028 004 00
160330 1621N 07603W 9633 00441 0130 +230 +209 123029 031 026 003 00
160400 1622N 07602W 9631 00445 0131 +232 +209 125031 032 027 002 00
160430 1623N 07601W 9628 00446 0129 +240 +208 129037 041 028 001 00
160500 1624N 07559W 9624 00450 0130 +237 +207 126033 040 027 000 00
160530 1625N 07558W 9630 00446 0130 +236 +208 125031 032 027 001 00
160600 1625N 07557W 9628 00446 0129 +238 +208 121031 033 027 001 00
160630 1626N 07556W 9629 00444 0128 +239 +208 120030 032 026 002 00
160700 1627N 07555W 9631 00444 0128 +240 +209 117030 032 026 002 00
160730 1628N 07554W 9633 00444 0131 +239 +209 118030 032 027 001 00
160800 1629N 07552W 9636 00446 0138 +235 +210 114027 028 029 001 03
160830 1630N 07551W 9627 00457 0139 +235 +210 117031 032 029 001 00
160900 1631N 07550W 9631 00451 0140 +234 +210 112031 032 030 001 00
160930 1632N 07549W 9498 00560 0134 +218 +210 109028 030 030 001 03
161000 1633N 07548W 9052 00972 //// +183 //// 114029 031 /// /// 05
$$

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 051619
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 43 20120805
161030 1634N 07547W 8653 01376 //// +164 //// 131033 036 /// /// 05
161100 1635N 07545W 8286 01746 //// +145 //// 137037 040 /// /// 05
161130 1636N 07544W 7851 02201 //// +131 //// 113030 034 /// /// 05
161200 1637N 07543W 7528 02556 //// +110 //// 109026 028 /// /// 05
161230 1638N 07542W 7238 02884 //// +096 //// 108021 024 /// /// 05
161300 1639N 07540W 6989 03179 //// +079 //// 106019 020 033 001 01
161330 1640N 07539W 6964 03210 //// +067 //// 105021 025 032 001 01
161400 1641N 07537W 6966 03209 //// +061 //// 103023 026 032 002 01
161430 1642N 07535W 6969 03207 //// +057 //// 104032 033 031 005 01
161500 1643N 07534W 6969 03205 //// +065 //// 101031 034 030 003 01
161530 1644N 07533W 6839 03344 //// +067 //// 103027 030 031 003 01
161600 1645N 07531W 6565 03683 //// +054 //// 104026 026 033 001 01
161630 1646N 07530W 6320 03993 //// +044 //// 100023 025 034 003 01
161700 1647N 07528W 6080 04307 //// +021 //// 098028 032 035 003 05
161730 1648N 07527W 5835 04644 //// +002 //// 104023 031 036 005 01
161800 1650N 07525W 5661 04889 //// -006 //// 105023 024 036 004 01
161830 1651N 07524W 5495 05127 0260 -016 //// 101023 024 034 004 05
161900 1651N 07522W 5329 05370 0274 -024 //// 099021 023 037 005 01
161930 1651N 07520W 5178 05601 0289 -035 //// 084020 021 037 003 01
162000 1651N 07518W 5052 05796 0303 -046 //// 085020 020 036 002 01
$$

[wjs3]

They haven't closed center off in hours (and not a really good one with a good west wind since late yesterday) and have even given up on sending out the "vortex" data messages, indicating that they have not closed one off. On the way home now. Based on recon, I don't think there's data here to support continued advisories. For continuity's sake, they may, but...I don't see it.

[mcheer23]

I think we all owe an apology to GFS and EURO

[Sanibel]

Interesting that Pouch 7 ahead of it vaporized in the same place in the Caribbean.