ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

Latest on Ernesto . Let's hope Ernesto don't pose too much problem for our friends of Jamaica.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 051453
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

CORRECTED FORMAT IN WATCHES AND WARNING SECTION.

...POORLY-ORGANIZED ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto looks like a wave...center is just a bunch of cumulus clouds, looking worse each frame.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5_sat.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think we all owe an apology to GFS and EURO

No kidding. Those things are so smart!`

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If NHC keeps this as any thing other than "invest" ernesto I'll be stunned. Because it has no closed center, it's probably a code red at 2.

[cycloneye]

Folks,GFS was the first to smell what Ernesto is going thru now followed by the Euro. I think is time to visit the "Global Model Runs Discussion" thread at Talking Tropics forum where you can see interesting things for the future.

[Buck]

Strange that after such a whirlwind start to the season, we go a month without hardly even an invest. All of the sudden, two storms form with a lot of promise and they both piddle out quickly. I would say when it rains it pours, but then it just dries up.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Strange that after such a whirlwind start to the season, we go a month without hardly even an invest. All of the sudden, two storms form with a lot of promise and they both piddle out quickly. I would say when it rains it pours, but then it just dries up.

Actually, wouldnt count Florence out yet.

[beoumont]

I have a question in understanding the current conditions that Ernesto is experiencing. In 1995 I was in Destin Fl when Hurricane Opal hit. She was moving very fast as well however that did not seem to have any over all affect on her. Heck, Opal was still a cat 1 when it came through Montgomery Alabama. I can’t remember perfectly but I think Opal was moving north at 18 – 22mph. What is the difference in the two storms? One is getting ripped apart because of the forward progress and the other flourished from it.

Brisk forward motion is only one of many factors that can determine intensification or weakening. There are many factors and "rules" of trop. cyclone development; but most of these rules are made to be broken: this is one reason why the study of tropical storms can be so fascinating.

One prime example of two of these rules being broken was Elena, 1985. The disturbance, then depression, that became Elena was moving 22 mph when it moved directly over land and organized and intensified all the while. As the depression entered Cuba near Guantanamo, the pressure was 1012 mb, and highest winds 35 mph. After traveling directly over some mountainous territory at 22mph the length of Cuber, it exited the NW side of the island at 994 mb. with max. winds of 65 mph. Not nine hours later it was a hurricane.

[mcheer23]

GFS is 2 for 2

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF has Ernesto in the Yucatan by Wednesday Morning..




By Thursday Morning Ernesto is in the BOC..

[Nederlander]

Question... Where's the western edge of the atlantic ridge that was supposed to be the steering mechanism? He's stayed nearly 270 since yesterday..

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Why is Ernesto a TS???

[Rgv20]

Well according to this morning 12z runs of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF tomorrow is when Ernesto should really start organizing. Going to be interesting to see if Ernesto can pull itself together.

[Rgv20]

By Monday Evening the 12zGFDL has Ernesto at 999mb..




By the end of the Run it has a full blown Hurricane...I know the GFDL has been overestimating Ernesto's Strength but it shows that it still has some potential to become a hurricane later on.

[crimi481]

does anyone think a new center may form -back to the east of that current center swirl?

[tolakram]

Looks finished, circulation breaking down IMO.

Latest Visible

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looks finished, circulation breaking down IMO.

Latest Visible

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/784/zztemp.jpg

Are you saying invest at 5?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

does anyone think a new center may form -back to the east of that current center swirl?

Not likely in the next 12 hours, but what do I know?

[tolakram]

BIG picture, what's left of Ernesto and Florence.

*linked ... too big for inline display*

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/784/zztemp.jpg

[Kingarabian]

Sigh Ernesto... I wanted you to defy all the models against you so badly.