ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My NEW forecast.

0 Hours, 50 kts, Approaching Hisp.
12 Hours, 50 kts, In the Windward Passage.*
24 Hours, 50 kts, Scraping Eastern Cuba, overland.
48 Hours, 40 kts, over Central Cuba.
72 Hours, 55 kts, NW of the Keys

*May strengthen to 55 kts before LFing in Hisp.

Thoughts?

[Aric Dunn]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

[Hurricane Andrew]

182700 1659N 07039W 8424 01488 //// +141 //// 160048 052 053 016 01
182730 1658N 07041W 8425 01488 //// +142 //// 167050 055 055 013 01
65mph SFMR

[pgoss11]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

That will probably affect the track??

[cycloneye]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

If it moves fast thru the Haiti Peninsula it would not be too disrupted.

[Aric Dunn]

next set should have center pass.

[SouthFLTropics]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

That will probably affect the track??

I would guess yes...It is running for the door before it closes. In other words it is trying to squeeze through the weakness in the ridge before the Bermuda High begins to build back west and send it further west. Could be significant for SE Florida.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

If it moves fast thru the Haiti Peninsula it would not be too disrupted.

yeah the least amount of time over land the less likely it will be disrupted.

[pgoss11]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

That will probably affect the track??

I would guess yes...It is running for the door before it closes. In other words it is trying to squeeze through the weakness in the ridge before the Bermuda High begins to build back west and send it further west. Could be significant for SE Florida.

SFT

Thanks SFT

[ozonepete]

its definitely moving faster than the forecast. its going to hit the 00z position probably 4 hrs ahead .

If it moves fast thru the Haiti Peninsula it would not be too disrupted.

Right. Less time over those mountains. Also that could keep it somewhat right of the forecast track since the ridge won't have built back over it yet to turn it a little more west.

[Extratropical94]

995 mb in center, extrapolated by the recon aircraft.

[Aric Dunn]

its also just a little to the north of the nhc track. remember the faster models were taking a little farther to the east. just have to wait and see.

[Dave]

184130 1647N 07123W 8429 01446 9948 +180 +180 161004 006 017 001 05

[SouthFLTropics]

its also just a little to the north of the nhc track. remember the faster models were taking a little farther to the east. just have to wait and see.

Agreed Aric...If I'm not mistaken wasn't the Euro a bit slower on the 12z run. I would be very interested to see a plot with the current positions and the 12z run position of the Euro and the GFS and see which one is verifying. NHC is going to have a tough call at 5:00PM for sure.

SFT

[wxwatcher1999]

I wander if land will slow it down enough to where it will miss the weakness

[ozonepete]

Here's the topographical map.



the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!

[Bocadude85]

its also just a little to the north of the nhc track. remember the faster models were taking a little farther to the east. just have to wait and see.

Agreed Aric...If I'm not mistaken wasn't the Euro a bit slower on the 12z run. I would be very interested to see a plot with the current positions and the 12z run position of the Euro and the GFS and see which one is verifying. NHC is going to have a tough call at 5:00PM for sure.

SFT

Yea tough call indeed... though looking at the TVCN it seems to be right in line with their current track so Im not sure they will make much of a shift to the east. I would think they will issue a TS watch from broward county southward though. Just my opinion of course.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Depends on the speed and timing, but it could be that the land interactions don't shred this system up, especially if the inflow/feeder bands (as this is not yet symmetrical) may be on the S or SE quad as it passes over Hisp. . Likewise, if it's main inflw with moisture is NE at the time it coudl get the sinking dried out air and distruptions. Lot's of thinkgs happening with this storm for sure.

[meriland23]

JUST a opinion, this is not official. Just what my idea of the track and intensity could be.

24- NE tip Cuba (70 mph)
48- 30 miles north of cuban costline, running along coastline (75 mph)
72- Between Cuba and SFL (80 mph)
84- 84W 27N heading almost WNW (90 mph)
96- 88W 28N heading NW (100 mph)
102 - landfall in SE louisiana/W MS (115 mph)

[jlauderdal]

Where is Steve Weagle?--Remember Miami NWS is literally down the hall from NHC, just sayin..


ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. ISAAC HAS BEGUN ITS
NORTHWEST TURN AND WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND TOWARDS EASTERN
CUBA OVERNIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE EAST FROM RUNS YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST
WEST...WITH THE STORM MOVING CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THE OTHER MODELS NOW BRING THE STORM INTO THE
MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION WITH CUBA. THIS COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...BECAUSE THE STORM WOULD BE ABLE TO SPEND MUCH
MORE TIME OVER WATER. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HURRICANE
MODELS...THEY WOULD BE INDICATING A HURRICANE POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO THERE IS A LOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS ONLY ONE SUITE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE INCREASING.