ATL: ISAAC - Models

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deltadog03
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#3261 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:14 pm

Turning North at hour 96...Looks like a PNS/Destin landfall... This run does look stronger.
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#3262 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:16 pm

hr 96, check them there MB@!

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#3263 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:16 pm

GFS,HWRF,GFDL all clip Keys in exact same spot...
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#3264 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:16 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Turning North at hour 96...Looks like a PNS/Destin landfall... This run does look stronger.


yeah 00z it did not reach hurricane strength till almost landfall this time it was a hurricane west of the keys.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3265 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:17 pm

Speaking of climatology models, the Florida straits were the breeding ground for the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane. It started as just a tropical storm east of Andros island but the surface pressures dropped to 892 MBs over the warm waters of the strait by the time it got to Key West. That storm continued up the west coast of Florida after reaching its peak strength in the Keys.
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#3266 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:17 pm

Unless the Euro heads due North then it might be a MS/AL landfall. Could very well be heading north by that time, though
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#3267 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:17 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFS,HWRF,GFDL all clip Keys in exact same spot...


they all go directly over the keys and the gfs goes over southern florida.
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#3268 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:17 pm

I can only do increments of 24hr, anyone know what happens 6-12 hrs after 96 hr? the mb and landfall ??
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3269 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:18 pm

96hr

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3270 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:18 pm

Euro is still a bit west. 96hr appears to be heading for west FL panhandle.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3271 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Euro is still a bit west. 96hr appears to be heading for west FL panhandle.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


Agreed!
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#3272 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:19 pm

meriland23 wrote:hr 96, check them there MB@!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/7774/natlprmslmsl096l.gif

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I may be wrong in how im looking at this, but it looks to me like its a very small but tight inner core throughout the model run. If thats the case this could be a very quick strengthener in the gulf if this run is correct.
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#3273 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:20 pm

Ya, we have landfall near Mobile Bay it looks like at hr114
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#3274 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:20 pm

:uarrow: yeah, but that would be difficult for a storm of this size... am I right?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3275 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:Euro is still a bit west. 96hr appears to be heading for west FL panhandle.

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP096.gif[/mg]


yeah its still the western outlier but this run is still slighty farther east than the 00z.
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#3276 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:21 pm

120 hr

MS/AL and a touch of FL panhandle at landfall

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#3277 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:21 pm

Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?
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Re:

#3278 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:22 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3279 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:22 pm

120 hours. landfall Alabama border with Mississippi.

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Re:

#3280 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:22 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Ya, we have landfall near Mobile Bay it looks like at hr114


What's the pressure?

Looks like 965mb at 96hr.
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