ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[wxwatcher1999]

rock...whats your opinion...is he going to make a come back?

[cycloneye]

I imagine plane is at operational altitud now.I guess 16 will not come so now to #17.

[ROCK]

rock...whats your opinion...is he going to make a come back?

he will make a comeback...see latest convection increase....I think he is finally slowing down enough. No reason though to go against any of the models now on track. I think they are done flipping.....

season cancelled...

[Riptide]

rock...whats your opinion...is he going to make a come back?

he will make a comeback...see latest convection increase....I think he is finally slowing down enough. No reason though to go against any of the models now on track. I think they are done flipping.....

season cancelled...

The season has been canceled, for your backyard.

[wxwatcher1999]

rock...whats your opinion...is he going to make a come back?

he will make a comeback...see latest convection increase....I think he is finally slowing down enough. No reason though to go against any of the models now on track. I think they are done flipping.....

season cancelled...

you dont think its possible for him to get strong enough in this time frame to feel the weakness and get pulled north?

[wxwatcher1999]

how strong would ernesto have to get to feel the weakness and take a more northerly route?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 052340
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120805
233100 1634N 07702W 4782 06221 0319 -071 //// 056015 017 026 001 01
233130 1634N 07705W 4958 05935 0300 -056 //// 042014 014 026 001 01
233200 1634N 07707W 5133 05662 0283 -043 //// 043015 015 026 003 01
233230 1634N 07710W 5321 05377 0265 -031 //// 053013 015 026 003 01
233300 1634N 07712W 5513 05093 //// -018 //// 054012 013 024 002 01
233330 1634N 07715W 5705 04818 //// -000 //// 058013 015 025 002 01
233400 1635N 07717W 5902 04545 //// +011 //// 068017 018 027 002 05
233430 1635N 07720W 6105 04277 //// +030 //// 072015 016 027 002 05
233500 1635N 07723W 6328 03987 //// +050 //// 088019 022 /// /// 05
233530 1635N 07725W 6560 03691 //// +061 //// 099028 029 /// /// 05
233600 1635N 07728W 6793 03403 //// +074 //// 101031 032 030 003 01
233630 1635N 07730W 7013 03139 //// +079 //// 104033 035 032 003 05
233700 1635N 07733W 7243 02869 //// +089 //// 104033 035 /// /// 05
233730 1636N 07736W 7483 02599 //// +107 //// 098034 036 /// /// 05
233800 1636N 07738W 7733 02321 //// +117 //// 100036 036 /// /// 05
233830 1636N 07741W 7997 02041 //// +130 //// 109039 039 /// /// 05
233900 1636N 07744W 8269 01755 //// +150 //// 114040 041 031 001 01
233930 1636N 07746W 8405 01598 //// +160 //// 117039 040 030 003 01
234000 1636N 07749W 8420 01581 //// +157 //// 117037 038 032 000 01
234030 1636N 07751W 8421 01581 //// +155 //// 116036 037 029 002 01
$$

Plane decends to operational altitud.

[tolakram]

loop ... will this blowup be THE one? I kid.

[jonj2040]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 052350
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 18 20120805
234100 1637N 07754W 8425 01576 //// +162 //// 112037 037 030 002 01
234130 1637N 07756W 8423 01578 //// +166 //// 108037 038 029 003 01
234200 1637N 07759W 8425 01577 //// +165 //// 107037 037 029 001 01
234230 1637N 07801W 8427 01573 //// +167 //// 107035 037 023 003 05
234300 1635N 07803W 8421 01581 //// +167 //// 107032 034 026 002 01
234330 1634N 07805W 8422 01579 //// +162 //// 102030 031 027 001 01
234400 1632N 07806W 8424 01578 //// +162 //// 098029 029 025 002 01
234430 1630N 07808W 8422 01578 //// +160 //// 094028 029 025 001 01
234500 1629N 07810W 8424 01579 //// +157 //// 094025 027 026 001 01
234530 1627N 07811W 8422 01577 //// +155 //// 096026 026 026 001 01
234600 1626N 07813W 8426 01573 //// +156 //// 102026 026 025 002 01
234630 1624N 07815W 8425 01575 //// +159 //// 106024 025 027 002 01
234700 1623N 07816W 8422 01577 0107 +156 +087 105021 021 027 002 00
234730 1621N 07818W 8424 01573 0102 +160 +131 106020 021 026 001 00
234800 1620N 07819W 8423 01575 0101 +160 +131 104019 020 025 001 00
234830 1618N 07821W 8424 01575 0102 +160 +132 104021 021 025 001 00
234900 1616N 07823W 8424 01575 0101 +162 +132 102021 021 022 002 00
234930 1615N 07824W 8424 01575 0102 +161 +133 109023 024 025 001 00
235000 1613N 07826W 8422 01575 0101 +161 +134 108022 024 026 002 00
235030 1612N 07828W 8425 01571 0100 +160 +135 103022 022 026 002 00

[Zeno8]

Strange iron cross in the main burst.

kinda like spokes

[jonj2040]

[climaguy]

how strong would ernesto have to get to feel the weakness and take a more northerly route?

Its not binary. The stronger he gets, the more he would feel it and the farther he would turn.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN GRAND
CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Weatherfreak000]

Blowup over LLC is quite impressive....however he has decoupled too much for RI. To answer a previous question the odds are quite slim he will turn. However that does NOT mean it is impossible. Watching our current local weather here near NOLA we have tons of instability right now, the front is aligned in such a way that the weakness indeed will be there, and probably will stick around for a good while. Now what does this mean? It means nothing short of RI will bring Ernesto North. Now....RI can occur after it crosses the Yucatan or before, but with the reliable global models not biting the chance is quite low. However, it is important to remember so long as a model shows that solution it is ALWAYS a possibility.

[wxman57]

The center appears to be 30 miles or so west of that blow-up. It's passing 80W now.

[cycloneye]

Ob 19 is missing so now to #20. They have to be making the first pass now.

[littlevince]

Ernesto has to build almost everything from scratch, which takes a lot of time, would be better that the recon flight arrived a few hours later, it's too early now I think. But let's see...

[rockyman]

18z GFDL finally gives up the ghost and goes with a BOC solution:



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html