ATL: ISAAC - Models

[meriland23]

Ok, how concerned should I be? I live on the MS/AL border not far inland. Haven't really bought supplies yet. Should I wait or take the euro seriously. The GFS is way east now, as is most of the models. I don't want to overreact but the euro stubbornly continues to show MS/AL line. Thoughts?

pay attention. Hope for the best, expect the worst is a good phrase to keep in mind. It really is anyones ball game, including MS and AL, just pay attention to the models and be prepared to get prepared.. just in case.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

here is the high resolution gfdl

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

For now the models seem to have settled on a Key West to Miami solution. Next to resolve is the intensity. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a stronger storm come into Dade/Broward county.

[meriland23]

right now, I am mostly concerned about what it does in the gulf... stationary? slow? fast? this will make THE biggest difference...

[tolakram]

Lets stick to model discussion please.

We have an obs and prep thread here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468

[gboudx]

Well that run of the Euro will keep NOLA on their toes. Kind of scary to think it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give them serious impacts.

Kinda reminds me of the path Georges took in 98. Coming from same general area, heading for the mouth of the river, then turning north. IIRC, all of SELA was under evacuation orders.

[bucman1]

is there any information that equates pressure (MB) to what what category the storm is?

[wxwatcher1999]

Is there still a possibility the high pressure builds back over it in the gulf and pushes it west with weak steering currents...that's what our local met was really concerned with yesterday

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: yeah, but that would be difficult for a storm of this size... am I right?

If you are referring to my post, it would be difficult for it to strengthen quickly if it were very large, but the way it looks to be depicted by the euro is an overall large circulation, but with a very small, tight inner core. An example of a storm with such a structure might be gilbert or wilma, although that isnt meant to imply anything about strength potential, as reaching that strength is highly unlikely. However those examples do prove my point about how quickly a storm like this can change in strength.

[meriland23]

is there any information that equates pressure (MB) to what what category the storm is?

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/StephanieStern.shtml

[bucman1]

Thank you Meriland23- that is exactly what i was looking for.

BucMan

[wxman57]

WX57, how does this ECM relate to your predictions?

It's still the west outlier. Think it's too far west.

[Wx_Warrior]

Nice 4-panel look at the HWRF 12z

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/hwrf/hwrf.2012082412/isaac09l/panel_c_mouse.php

[Aric Dunn]

look at the gfs ensemble members a bunch are now going up the east coast. but over very good model consensus except for the euro after 72 hours where its the western outlier still but not as much as yesterday.

[pgoss11]

Obviously the jury is still out with where Isaac will go. If he continues with this faster speed than predicted, SE Florida may very well come into play for landfall scenario.
Not an official forecast.

[bucman1]

Aric,

I looks like the West Coast Of Fla (penninsular) will definitely be in play based on the
continued shifts east. Do you see it that way?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

I looks like the West Coast Of Fla (penninsular) will definitely be in play based on the
continued shifts east. Do you see it that way?

yes most of the peninsula will see the effect from it. its a very large systems.

[Senobia]

Is there still a possibility the high pressure builds back over it in the gulf and pushes it west with weak steering currents...that's what our local met was really concerned with yesterday

I 2nd this question.

[Wx_Warrior]

Obviously the jury is still out with where Isaac will go. If he continues with this faster speed than predicted, SE Florida may very well come into play for landfall scenario.
Not an official forecast.

May not know, exact location, but we are starting to see a pretty good idea.

[Blown Away]

18z

Huge east shift by TVCN towards SFL peninsula/Keys.

NHC track is outlier

[Jevo]

Lets stick to model discussion please.

We have an obs and prep thread here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113468

Mark I imagine there is an imprint of keyboard keys in your forehead by now for as many times as you must be bashing your head into it for the off topic discussion...