ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Agua]

Again, wait until around 72 hours before landfall and they'll have it down within the cone of error. Having been away from the board, actively, for the last several years, I've gotten a little more perspective from the days of 03-05 where I fretted over every bobble and wobble.

By all means, if you're within the 5 day cone of error, you want to be making some preliminary plans, maybe run by the store pick up some extra sandwich items and a few canned goods, maybe fill up a few jugs of water around the house, but don't upset your entire life at this point.

[Weatherboy1]

Huge east shift by TVCN towards SFL peninsula/Keys.

NHC track is outlier

Yes, TVCN consensus has definitely shifted east by 30-40 miles or so. I would not be surprised to see the NHC shift its track closer to the SW FL coast and to hoist TS watches for all the Keys at 5 p.m. May see watches up for the SW and SE coasts of FL too. It is absolutely critical to the peninsula where Isaac exits the island of Hispanola. He looks ever so slightly N and E of the forecast points, which normally doesn't make a big deal. But as we saw with Charley in 2004, the "angle of attack" can make a big differnce on which population centers ... if any ... are hit. Wobble watching is going to shift into overtime over the next two days! Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always.

[meriland23]

Look at these temps.. my goodness lol



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[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z Bamms Split the State now...Another East Shift.

[tolakram]

Huge east shift by TVCN towards SFL peninsula/Keys.

NHC track is outlier

Yes, TVCN consensus has definitely shifted east by 30-40 miles or so. I would not be surprised to see the NHC shift its track closer to the SW FL coast and to hoist TS watches for all the Keys at 5 p.m. May see watches up for the SW and SE coasts of FL too. It is absolutely critical to the peninsula where Isaac exits the island of Hispanola. He looks ever so slightly N and E of the forecast points, which normally doesn't make a big deal. But as we saw with Charley in 2004, the "angle of attack" can make a big differnce on which population centers ... if any ... are hit. Wobble watching is going to shift into overtime over the next two days! Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always.

TVCN was going to move based on GFS track, since it's a rather automated blend. To the best of my knowledge anyway. Now the question is will the NHC follow it, or perhaps split the difference since Euro is an outlier. At 96 hours both models have near the same skill, but between 48 and 96 the euro has the most skill ... compared to CLIPER. So my guess is they look at the blend, then apply their comfort range for each model to create their track.

[frederic79]

I appreciate the advice. From experience, I know that once people wake up and realize the threat is real, it's mass chaos at every retailer. Been there, done that and got the T-shirt. It's the fact that my local area is still in play (euro) that keeps me wondering. It's easy to overreact and neglect other priorities only to have to admit it was a false alarm. Most here on this board are far more connected to the evolving threat and act accordingly, as opposed to the general public, thus the last minute chaotic rush to prepare. As long as a major global model like the european model continues to include my area, I will consider Isaac a legit threat.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

What I will be even more interested in is the intensity forecast. Issac is already approaching hurricane strength and the GFS, HWRF and GFDL models all show a track with very little time over land.

[SouthFLTropics]

18Z Bamms Split the State now...Another East Shift.

Can you provide a link please???

SFT

[Blown Away]

18z

Bams over SFL now and TVCN shifted east by @100 miles.

Very cool, Cliper flipped from WNW towards Yucatan to east of SFL. That tells me Isaac has reached the latitude where historically systems move N out of the Caribbean vs going W towards GOM. Very interesting.

See my map on pg 166 for Cliper example!

[Hurricane Alexis]

The only thing that scares me from hurricanes are tornadoes....you never know if one goes over your house.

[wxman57]

18Z Bamms Split the State now...Another East Shift.

Ignore them north of about 15N. They're simple trajectory models.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z

Bams over SFL now and TVCN shifted east by @100 miles.

Very cool, Cliper flipped from WNW towards Yucatan to east of SFL. That tells me Isaac has reached the latitude where historically systems move N out of the Caribbean vs going W towards GOM. Very interesting.

See my map of pg 166 for Cliper example!

I noticed that as well...Very interesting to see the CLP shift like that indicating that a "threshold" has been reached and now the past favors a new solution.

SFT

[tailgater]

18z

Bams over SFL now and TVCN shifted east by @100 miles.

Very cool, Cliper flipped from WNW towards Yucatan to east of SFL. That tells me Isaac has reached the latitude where historically systems move N out of the Caribbean vs going W towards GOM. Very interesting.

See my map of pg 166 for Cliper example!

Sorry bout the reposting of image.

Looks like Issac needs to put his signal on for that right turn he's needs to make, the last few hours he seems to be on a more WNW course. Just me looking at Hi-res vis loop.

[thetruesms]

says 966 on the bottom right

Well that's quirky - the one you posted pegs the min at 970 at 120, while the plot at americanwx.com says the min is 963. Wonder what the reason for that is. My only guess would be that one is putting in the min at precisely 120 hours, while the other uses the min between 96 and 120.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Moving WNW and NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[MHurricanes]

Aric,

I looks like the West Coast Of Fla (penninsular) will definitely be in play based on the
continued shifts east. Do you see it that way?

yes most of the peninsula will see the effect from it. its a very large systems.

If the model tracks continue their eastward shift, we could eventually see a Miami-Ft. Lauderdale landfall, with the hurricane riding up the state's spine.

[petit_bois]

Aric,

I looks like the West Coast Of Fla (penninsular) will definitely be in play based on the
continued shifts east. Do you see it that way?

yes most of the peninsula will see the effect from it. its a very large systems.

If the model tracks continue their eastward shift, we could eventually see a Miami-Ft. Lauderdale landfall, with the hurricane riding up the state's spine.

euro had been VERY good on this for days. especially in the 72-96hr period. the others have been all over the place.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

What?? The GFS has been by far the most consistant model with this storm. The Euro has shifted way east already.

[SouthFLTropics]

Sorry for the double post...

[SouthFLTropics]

yes most of the peninsula will see the effect from it. its a very large systems.

If the model tracks continue their eastward shift, we could eventually see a Miami-Ft. Lauderdale landfall, with the hurricane riding up the state's spine.

euro had been VERY good on this for days. especially in the 72-96hr period. the others have been all over the place.[/quote]

That isn't exactly true...And I'm not going to get into a lengthy discussion here because out of respect for the mods I don't want to start a model war but the GFS has been very consistent as well. JMHO

SFT