ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[monicaei]

Yeah I looked at some close range visibles...still highly disorganized and still racing too fast west. Cancel him.

You saw the light before I posted. When recon yesterday morning found a weakening Erbusto, I knew it was over.

First pass of recon found lowest pressure of 1002.4 mbs.

Means little to me. Have they found a decent west wind yet?

It isn't a matter of "seeing the light", we are amateurs, our opinions are worth very little. Furthermore, you are from Canada as I can tell, you don't understand how us GOM folk feel. So long as there is a chance...even if it's a 0.01% chance it can hit us, we gotta watch it. We have seen just about anything you can imagine down here.

This +1000. I have been lurking here for years. It's the best source of real analysis on the web, IMO. For some of us, it's not about pretty storms and disappointing fizzles. It's about generators and ice and traffic and gas. If it's a threat, is it gonna knock out the power or knock down the levees? Watching and being well informed really is more important than being right on a forum

[littlevince]

I am not sure how many of you have been to the Yucatan but I started going there in 1989. It is about 10 miles or so, south of Playa del Carmen.

I am not sure where Ernesto will arrive in the Yucatan but our friends that live on the coast there are just about 10' above sea level and that is what I consider on lava/reef rock. I am sure it is called something else though.

They will be lucky that Ernesto probably will be not as bad as many thought but that whole area of the Yucatan is virtually at sea level. My friends happen to be a bit more elevated.

I've been there several times (Cancun, Riviera Maya, etc) and in other places in tropical risky zones, and from my experience, the Yucatan region of Mexico and Cuba (hehe) and Florida (US), are the places that I know who better deal with tropical cyclones in Atlantic, they are very professional in emergency management. Don't have to worry about that. We have seen in the last years some serious major hurricanes in this places and they deal well with them. The same thing I cannot said about other countries, Honduras, Nicarágua, Guatemala, Haiti, etc, where even a weak tropical depression can cause tragedies.

[jonj2040]

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060119
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120806
011100 1421N 07850W 8426 01566 0092 +168 +135 214011 012 018 005 00
011130 1422N 07851W 8432 01559 0091 +170 +133 211011 011 019 004 00
011200 1423N 07853W 8425 01568 0093 +166 +133 202010 011 014 003 00
011230 1424N 07854W 8430 01562 0092 +167 +133 211011 012 014 002 00
011300 1426N 07855W 8429 01565 0093 +167 +133 217011 012 015 002 00
011330 1427N 07856W 8429 01565 0091 +171 +134 226011 011 014 003 00
011400 1428N 07857W 8429 01562 0086 +175 +135 222010 010 014 004 00
011430 1429N 07859W 8426 01566 0086 +175 +136 210010 012 019 004 00
011500 1430N 07900W 8436 01559 0088 +174 +138 194012 012 020 002 00
011530 1432N 07901W 8427 01567 0095 +162 +139 197011 013 023 007 00
011600 1433N 07902W 8427 01566 0098 +162 +138 215011 013 026 010 00
011630 1434N 07904W 8438 01555 0091 +172 +137 197012 014 023 007 00
011700 1435N 07905W 8428 01566 0088 +174 +136 212010 011 014 003 00
011730 1436N 07906W 8429 01564 0083 +178 +137 213009 010 013 002 00
011800 1438N 07907W 8428 01565 0084 +180 +139 218009 009 015 001 00
011830 1439N 07908W 8429 01562 0083 +180 +142 225008 009 019 000 00
011900 1440N 07910W 8428 01562 0082 +180 +144 222010 010 017 002 00
011930 1441N 07911W 8430 01560 0078 +182 +145 229009 010 018 002 00
012000 1442N 07912W 8429 01560 0078 +181 +146 238008 009 019 001 00
012030 1444N 07913W 8429 01564 0083 +179 +148 247009 009 017 002 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

[wxsouth]

I'm still not seeing any well-defined center in the plots:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

Let's see what they find when they turn NW next pass...

I think what's left of Ernesto will be moving inland into Nicaragua/Honduras tomorrow morning.

wxman57...I think its pretty clear now that there is a closed circulation. The low-level background flow has finally subsided enough for the vortex to appear in the earth-relative sense. Interesting part is that the winds will likely weaken (note no 50 knots winds on the way in) until (and if) the inner core gets established, since there is no 20-25 knot background flow to boost the winds on the north side anymore.

So we're probably dealing with a 35 knot (if that) tropical storm now versus last night's 50 knot tropical wave.

You're right though, it probably won't matter much since a landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras seems likely.

[wxman57]

Yes, see my edit above. Don't see any evidence of TS winds yet, much less the 45kts on the last advisory.

[littlevince]

But Ernesto is back to business, faster than I expected. But I agree, too late for a more northerly track, will face the interaction with Nicaragua/Honduras

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060129
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 28 20120806
012100 1445N 07914W 8428 01564 0080 +181 +149 250007 009 013 002 00
012130 1446N 07916W 8427 01565 0076 +190 +149 270003 006 014 002 00
012200 1447N 07917W 8431 01562 0075 +193 +151 298006 007 017 000 03
012230 1449N 07917W 8429 01565 0069 +199 +153 281003 005 021 003 03
012300 1450N 07917W 8426 01565 0067 +200 +156 194005 007 022 002 00
012330 1452N 07916W 8431 01557 0071 +190 +159 172009 009 021 003 03
012400 1453N 07916W 8421 01567 0070 +189 +161 157008 009 019 003 00
012430 1455N 07917W 8428 01560 0067 +195 +162 144008 009 021 003 03
012500 1455N 07919W 8424 01564 0063 +200 +163 082002 007 /// /// 03
012530 1454N 07920W 8429 01560 0062 +205 +164 001007 008 024 002 00
012600 1453N 07921W 8429 01561 0061 +208 +166 342008 009 013 003 03
012630 1451N 07921W 8430 01560 0065 +204 +168 311007 010 /// /// 03
012700 1451N 07919W 8432 01560 0065 +204 +170 208001 004 /// /// 03
012730 1453N 07919W 8426 01565 0065 +200 +172 130003 004 /// /// 03
012800 1454N 07920W 8429 01561 0065 +204 +172 057004 005 023 002 00
012830 1455N 07921W 8429 01560 0062 +207 +172 050008 009 021 004 00
012900 1456N 07922W 8429 01560 0061 +209 +172 045010 012 012 001 00
012930 1457N 07924W 8427 01561 0060 +207 +172 036014 015 013 003 00
013000 1459N 07925W 8428 01559 0059 +205 +172 051018 019 027 003 00
013030 1500N 07926W 8436 01548 0057 +205 +172 042024 026 034 003 00
$$

[jonj2040]

[wxman57]

What we could be seeing are multiple small vortices rotating around a larger low pressure area. We've seen that many times in the past with such weak, sheared systems. The satellite identified one vortex passing 80W at 15N a few hours ago. Perhaps there are 2 or 3 rotating around?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

[ozonepete]

We're looking at a open wave that is about to run into CA...not interesting to me in the slightest. Still looks to be racing too fast westwards, don't see much latitude gain, not going into Texas, not going to get its act together much before CA, and not much time left based on where Ernesto was suppose to be at this time yesterday and where he is now.

It's not an open wave. There is a definition for an open wave. If RECON finds that it is an open wave now, we will know soon. But if you're calling it one before it is you need to post the disclaimer so people don't get confused, ok.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060139
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 29 20120806
013100 1501N 07927W 8428 01559 0062 +199 +171 049032 035 034 003 00
013130 1501N 07927W 8428 01559 0062 +202 +169 049038 042 036 003 00
013200 1503N 07930W 8424 01567 0068 +199 +168 053035 037 035 004 00
013230 1505N 07931W 8430 01562 0070 +200 +167 054031 036 036 002 00
013300 1506N 07932W 8426 01568 0073 +197 +166 043032 033 036 001 00
013330 1507N 07933W 8429 01570 0077 +199 +165 035033 033 035 002 00
013400 1508N 07934W 8426 01573 0078 +200 +164 035032 033 034 002 00
013430 1509N 07936W 8432 01571 0081 +199 +163 040031 032 033 003 00
013500 1510N 07937W 8426 01576 0082 +195 +163 040030 032 034 001 00
013530 1512N 07938W 8428 01575 0086 +192 +162 037029 030 035 001 00
013600 1513N 07939W 8428 01577 0088 +190 +161 036028 028 034 002 00
013630 1514N 07940W 8428 01577 0091 +187 +161 037029 030 035 001 00
013700 1515N 07942W 8429 01576 0092 +187 +159 037030 031 033 000 00
013730 1516N 07943W 8430 01575 0091 +190 +158 039030 031 032 002 00
013800 1517N 07944W 8428 01578 0089 +192 +157 044030 031 030 001 00
013830 1519N 07945W 8428 01579 0092 +189 +156 046031 031 030 002 00
013900 1520N 07946W 8430 01576 0095 +184 +155 045032 033 031 002 00
013930 1521N 07947W 8429 01582 0099 +184 +155 047031 032 031 001 00
014000 1522N 07949W 8429 01581 0106 +173 +153 047032 032 031 003 00
014030 1523N 07950W 8428 01584 0109 +170 +152 049032 033 031 002 00
$$
;

[Macrocane]

I've been there several times (Cancun, Riviera Maya, etc) and in other places in tropical risky zones, and from my experience, the Yucatan region of Mexico and Cuba (hehe) and Florida (US), are the places that I know who better deal with tropical cyclones in Atlantic, they are very professional in emergency management. Don't have to worry about that. We have seen in the last years some serious major hurricanes in this places and they deal well with them. The same thing I cannot said about other countries, Honduras, Nicarágua, Guatemala, Haiti, etc, where even a weak tropical depression can cause tragedies.

Well, to be fair our emergency management has improved in the last few years but we've had extreme rainfall events never seen before and even a weak depression like TD 12E produced 1500 mm (or 59 inches) of rain last year in El Salvador, that's another reason why we're tracking Ernesto, because it's going to move very close of Honduras and make landfall in Belize and we never really know how much rainfall this systems are going to produce.

[ozonepete]

This +1000. I have been lurking here for years. It's the best source of real analysis on the web, IMO. For some of us, it's not about pretty storms and disappointing fizzles. It's about generators and ice and traffic and gas. If it's a threat, is it gonna knock out the power or knock down the levees? Watching and being well informed really is more important than being right on a forum

That is really well said. Most of us on here try really hard to keep you guys correctly informed so that you can make the right decisions about what to do if you are threatened, because that trumps everything else. Glad you like us.

[wjs3]

What we could be seeing are multiple small vortices rotating around a larger low pressure area. We've seen that many times in the past with such weak, sheared systems. The satellite identified one vortex passing 80W at 15N a few hours ago. Perhaps there are 2 or 3 rotating around?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

I think that's a reasonable possibility given the location of the second "vortex"--to the SW of the first fix. Doesn't seem like the first vortex they fixed would have moved that way!

[wxsouth]

What we could be seeing are multiple small vortices rotating around a larger low pressure area. We've seen that many times in the past with such weak, sheared systems. The satellite identified one vortex passing 80W at 15N a few hours ago. Perhaps there are 2 or 3 rotating around?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

Sounds like a good possibility. The flight level center they just fixed had 22kt southerly winds at the surface, suggesting another sfc center to the west of the previous VDM. What a mess.

[jonj2040]

[wxman57]

What we could be seeing are multiple small vortices rotating around a larger low pressure area. We've seen that many times in the past with such weak, sheared systems. The satellite identified one vortex passing 80W at 15N a few hours ago. Perhaps there are 2 or 3 rotating around?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

I think that's a reasonable possibility given the location of the second "vortex"--to the SW of the first fix. Doesn't seem like the first vortex they fixed would have moved that way!

Yes, that's what I'm thinking. That small vortex is rotating SW.

[stephen23]

what is that that just popped up on last water vapor loop?