ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TCmet]

Can someone post a GOES 14 image? I am on my iPad, no flash.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Isaac_GOES14_SRSO_24Aug2012_1145_1340.gif

Here's a .gif loop that's 45.8mb.

[KWT]

This is just a thought but look for a possible center relocation to the North or even Northeast between Cuba and Haiti if the circulation gets disrupted by the mountains at all. The reason I say this is because the heaviest convection is off to the East and Northeast right now and will be wrapping around. The center may jump under the heaviest convection if it gets disrupted. Just a thought.

SFT

Very possible, a southerly relocation is just as possible if it does suffer, thats what happened with Gustav as the LLC gets taken by the low level flow further west.

Still it should be strong enough now to prevent that fate, especially as its heading towards the western part of Haiti.

[Sanibel]

Not much in the way of deep convection... [/QUOTE]

But you have to figure the drop to 994 will translate into a convective burst one way or another.

[LowndesCoFire]

Weather Channel guys just said they don't expect the cone to shift at all at 5pm.

The cone has to shift to the right. The NHC track is now a left outlier.

Jim Cantore again saying that he doesn't think the track will shift at all. Will be interesting to see what happens at 5pm.

Is he explaining his rationale or just laying down 'Cantore law'..lol? Just curious.. not watching TWC at the moment!

[MHurricanes]

It's cranking folks, good pressure drop.

Has that comma look now........

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

That "comma look" is a surefire sign of an intensifying storm as banding wraps around the storm's center. If Isaac doesn't expend too much of its energy over Cuba, it could roll into the Florida Straits as a rapidly intensifying hurricane. South Forida could be in for a wild ride if the model tracks continue their eastward shift.

[My opinion only.]

[Aric Dunn]

This is just a thought but look for a possible center relocation to the North or even Northeast between Cuba and Haiti if the circulation gets disrupted by the mountains at all. The reason I say this is because the heaviest convection is off to the East and Northeast right now and will be wrapping around. The center may jump under the heaviest convection if it gets disrupted. Just a thought.

SFT

yeah that has been discussed over the couple days various models have tried to do that the last few days. its not out of the realm of possibility.

[ObsessedMiami]

Jim Cantore again saying that he doesn't think the track will shift at all. Will be interesting to see what happens at 5pm.

Is he explaining his rationale or just laying down 'Cantore law'..lol? Just curious.. not watching TWC at the moment![/quote]

I found it strange because he was saying the Euro was to the far left of the 5 am cone and I don't think the 12z run was that far left

[WeatherOrKnot]

Jim Cantore again saying that he doesn't think the track will shift at all. Will be interesting to see what happens at 5pm.

Is he explaining his rationale or just laying down 'Cantore law'..lol? Just curious.. not watching TWC at the moment!

I found it strange because he was saying the Euro was to the far left of the 5 am cone and I don't think the 12z run was that far left[/quote]


He said that the 12z GFS was too far east and the 12z Euro was too far west.

[petit_bois]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

[SouthFLTropics]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that it will probably have a huge impact on the North Gulf whether it hits So FLA or not. If the conditions are ideal it very well could blow up. The water in the GOM is baking and has been relatively untouched for quite some time. Katrina crossed South Florida on her way to NOLA and she still blew up huge in the Gulf. A track across the Everglades doesn't do much to knock a system down. Even though it looks like land on a map you have to remember that most of inland South Florida is swamp and water.

SFT

[wxman57]

Can someone post a GOES 14 image? I am on my iPad, no flash.

Try this:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/goes14.gif

Oh, and you can view flash animations on your iPad (I do) with an app called OnLive Desktop.
http://desktop.onlive.com/

[chris_fit]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that it will probably have a huge impact on the North Gulf whether it hits So FLA or not. If the conditions are ideal it very well could blow up. The water in the GOM is baking and has been relatively untouched for quite some time. Katrina crossed South Florida on her way to NOLA and she still blew up huge in the Gulf. A track across the Everglades doesn't do much to knock a system down. Even though it looks like land on a map you have to remember that most of inland South Florida is swamp and water.

SFT

I agree. Remember Fay? Fay's core actually organized and strengthened while over S FL.

[otowntiger]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

It seems that the NHC and some of the models are not too keen on this thing ramping up very much in the Gulf. It may have a lot to do with the fact that it just hasn't really gotten its act together given ample time and conditions so far, but I know that shouldn't affect what would happen in the Gulf. Wxman57 said something earlier about the unusual lack of instability in the Gulf and referenced some data that could play a big role.

[SouthDadeFish]

Most recent microwave pass:



Improved banding, but lacking very deep convection.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone post a GOES 14 image? I am on my iPad, no flash.

Try this:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/goes14.gif

Oh, and you can view flash animations on your iPad (I do) with an app called OnLive Desktop.
http://desktop.onlive.com/

Thanks man. Have you seen the new NAM?

[tolakram]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that it will probably have a huge impact on the North Gulf whether it hits So FLA or not. If the conditions are ideal it very well could blow up. The water in the GOM is baking and has been relatively untouched for quite some time. Katrina crossed South Florida on her way to NOLA and she still blew up huge in the Gulf. A track across the Everglades doesn't do much to knock a system down. Even though it looks like land on a map you have to remember that most of inland South Florida is swamp and water.

SFT

You may be correct, but water temperature is only one ingredient. As wxman posted earlier, the instability in the gulf is way way way below normal.

[petit_bois]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that it will probably have a huge impact on the North Gulf no whether it hits So FLA or not. If the conditions are ideal it very well could blow up. The water in the GOM is baking and has been relatively untouched for quite some time. Katrina crossed South Florida on her way to NOLA and she still blew up huge in the Gulf. A track across the Everglades doesn't do much to knock a system down. Even though it looks like land on a map you have to remember that most of inland South Florida is swamp and water.

SFT

Katrina was a completely different angle. Isaac GFS run would keep Isaac minimal... raking up the coast with limited time over water. Euro (the one that been most accurate) would be MUCH worse for us.

And on a side not... Wednesday is the 29th... 7yr anniversary of Katrina landfall.

[SouthFLTropics]

Tropical Storm Watch from Jupiter Inlet South to the Keys...Per NHC

[otowntiger]

If this storm misses mainland FL completely it could have a HUGE impact on the north gulf area. It's Isaac's' last impediment on it's way! Could be the difference in Cat 1 vs Cat 3 or higher...

JMHO
Check with NHC for offical forcasts.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that it will probably have a huge impact on the North Gulf whether it hits So FLA or not. If the conditions are ideal it very well could blow up. The water in the GOM is baking and has been relatively untouched for quite some time. Katrina crossed South Florida on her way to NOLA and she still blew up huge in the Gulf. A track across the Everglades doesn't do much to knock a system down. Even though it looks like land on a map you have to remember that most of inland South Florida is swamp and water.

SFT

Still plenty of friction to do the damage. Also as so many storms have proven just because the water is warm doesn't mean a tropical system is destined to strengthen. (just look at the current state of Isaac) There are so many other factors at play and some we apparently don't even know about yet that affect intensity.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Nhc might go to 65mph!