ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3421 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:18 pm

Don't think we are going to have a model showing the exact pinpoint landfall for every consecutive run. That's why NHC has a cone.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3422 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:19 pm

FINALLY lifting further north into Alabama and Georgia at 141 hours...That's a ridiculous amount of rainfall if that were to verify. I thought Frances was slow and a pain in the rear...Unreal!!! :raincloud:

edit: On second thought maybe not...still looks like it's hanging out. Might want to get your :fishing: ready if that happens. Geez!!!

SFT
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#3423 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:21 pm

Not a good run, it gets free of land fairly quickly and then tracks further west on this run, thus getting the best part of 3 days over water with maybe only one glancing blow from land.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3424 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:22 pm

Dying and lifting out at 153 hours...Wow. I agree with a previous poster, the stall is more ominous than the Westward shift.

SFT
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#3425 Postby artist » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:23 pm

PLEASE - when mentioning landfalls please clarify as to which landfall.
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#3426 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:24 pm

Trough not as deep into the SE with this run, so further west it goes!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3427 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:25 pm

Pensacola area give or take 60 miles east or west looks increasingly like our target zone
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3428 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:27 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Dying and lifting out at 153 hours...Wow. I agree with a previous poster, the stall is more ominous than the Westward shift.

SFT


Yes, 63 hours after landfall at Mobile, it creeps only over towards, say Jackson MS? Yikes.

At the end of the run, notice our newly developing storm in the cent atl moving west :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3429 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Pensacola area give or take 60 miles east or west looks increasingly like our target zone


Well put Ivan. I've been thinking the same thing since yesterday. Hopefully, that stall won't occur.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3430 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:30 pm

ColdFusion wrote:Shows it making landfall @ 90 hours, and then not moving much even @ 114hrs.

Spinning on top of Mobile, just on shore, for a full 24 hours.

That would be brutal.


Would be pretty catastrophic for water to be pushed up inside mobile bay. One of those really vulnerable places that would flood out a LOT of people along the bay. And the center of the city as well.
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#3431 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:34 pm

Ivan, I agree with you unfortunately. I see you are located in Texas now...trust me, the people here are doing what they always do...shelves are becoming empty already...folks are preparing for whatever comes our way.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3432 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:34 pm

I guess what we can take from the end of that run is that by tuesday or so, this gfs run believes the steering current get extremely weak. So if that plays out, a slower moving storm could lose its steering and meander around in the gulf for a little while.

Or this could all become moot after the next model run :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3433 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:37 pm

I'm firmly convinced the models will have a good consensus and fix on the storm by the Wed 8/29 1200 UTC runs. :D

Sadly, I fear the rain will be the story and the GFS might be a tad bit more valid than many think. If that storm is +/- 50 miles East or West of it's projections, flooding will be a huge problem from Naples northward. :eek:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3434 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:39 pm

Image
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Re:

#3435 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:44 pm

KWT wrote:Not a good run, it gets free of land fairly quickly and then tracks further west on this run, thus getting the best part of 3 days over water with maybe only one glancing blow from land.

further west?... huh?
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Re:

#3436 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:45 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Trough not as deep into the SE with this run, so further west it goes!

But still in the region of Pensacola, am I correct?
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Re: Re:

#3437 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:46 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Trough not as deep into the SE with this run, so further west it goes!

But still in the region of Pensacola, am I correct?

Yes.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3438 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:47 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Pensacola area give or take 60 miles east or west looks increasingly like our target zone


Well put Ivan. I've been thinking the same thing since yesterday. Hopefully, that stall won't occur.

No stall please. Don't want that for those who are going to experience Isaac and I've got to drive over to Biloxi next Friday night.
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Re: Re:

#3439 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:52 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Trough not as deep into the SE with this run, so further west it goes!

But still in the region of Pensacola, am I correct?


Yes and also the reason it gets left behind and stalls, weakness closes up!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3440 Postby LowndesCoFire » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:55 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Pensacola area give or take 60 miles east or west looks increasingly like our target zone

Official?
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