ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Ivanhater]

Pensacola area give or take 60 miles east or west looks increasingly like our target zone

Official?

Based purely on model to model run consistency

[GTStorm]

Wow. Is there such a thing as a bogus run? This one doesn't pass the "smell test", IMO. Too much of a radical shift in just the basic behavior from the 12z run, IMO, not only in the shape of the track prior to landfall, but especially in its behavior after landfall.

sorry...talking about the 18z GFS run.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

The really are not major shifts in the models from each run

[LowndesCoFire]

Just saw a loop of the WRF model? Just curious, what is that? Any thoughts on validity? Reliability? Garbage?

[Bocadude85]

18z HWRF landfall Upper Keys 42hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/18zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest042.gif

[ROCK]

what I find interesting is the stall by the GFS....and then I looked at the EURO ensembles that does the same and drifts this west over LA and then even into Texas....NAM though doesnt have a clue on TS position of strength might be on to something with a stronger ridge though..JMO..

posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[smw1981]

Bocadude..will you keep posting? I don't know how to look at the HWRF as it's rolling out! (or just let me know where to go to see it myself!) Thanks!

[smw1981]

Just saw a loop of the WRF model? Just curious, what is that? Any thoughts on validity? Reliability? Garbage?

It wasn't the HWRF? If not, I don't know either..

[Jevo]

18z HWRF Initialized



18Z HWRF +24



18z HWRF +42 1st CONUS Landfall

[Jevo]

18z HWRF + 48



18z HWRF +72

[PTrackerLA]

Big shift left in 18z HWRF seems to maintain a WNW/NW motion out to 78H. Look out NO?

[Jevo]

Big shift left in 18z HWRF seems to maintain a WNW/NW motion out to 78H. Look out NO?

Big shift left after 60 hours....... Initialized > +60 is slightly right

[Jevo]

18z HWRF +90 2nd CONUS Landfall

[Pearl River]

HWRF looks very similar to last nights 18z run.

[PTrackerLA]

SE LA landfall. This is going to raise some eye brows but we've seen this type of 'windshield wiping' before...more watching and waiting.

[rainstorm]

a northwest moving storm is more likely to deepen than a ne moving storm in the gom.

[BobHarlem]

How bad would the storm surge be if that HRWF verified? That looks like it would drive water up the Mississippi

[Jevo]

18z HWRF +96



18z HWRF +102 (Just hanging out)



18z HWRF +108 (Still Hanging Out)

[rainstorm]

thats a disaster for NO.

[LaBreeze]

what I find interesting is the stall by the GFS....and then I looked at the EURO ensembles that does the same and drifts this west over LA and then even into Texas....NAM though doesnt have a clue on TS position of strength might be on to something with a stronger ridge though..JMO..

posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Rock, just wondering... how much credence do you have on a stall at any point and then a westerly drift? Is it just the Euro or what? Thanks.