ATL: ISAAC - Models

[rainstorm]

looks like eruo, gfs, and hrwf all show a stall or very slow movement.

[Jevo]

18z HWRF +114 (Must love gumbo)



18z HWRF +120 (or Jambalaya)



18z HWRF +126 (Crawfish maybe?)

[Jevo]

18z HWRF Full Loop

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[cheezyWXguy]

so now both the gfs and hwrf stall the system immediately after landfall. what would cause this to occur? Does the weakness fill in before the storm can get picked up by a trough?

[SFLcane]

18z GFDL first landfall in extreme sfl http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

[PTrackerLA]

Dang the 18z GFDL has a cat 1 scrape on SW FL then it swings way left like the HWRF out to 72hrs.

[LaBreeze]

Dang the 18z GFDL has a cat 1 scrape on SW FL then it swings way left like the HWRF out to 72hrs.

Way left? How far left is it showing?

[tailgater]

If we feed the HWRF will it leave!

[PTrackerLA]

This is going to have implications on what the NHC does with their 11pm track IMO. 18z GFDL looks to make landfall in extreme eastern MS.

[BigB0882]

Wow, not completely buying into a model just because it sits over me for what seems like FOREVER but that is something to think about. I thought the shifting was done, to be honest but this is quite a bit of West shifting the last few runs, even if some only shifted a little. The HWRF is not the most reliable model from what I have gathered here but I take a couple of things from this:

Westward shifts on a few models
Stalls at landfall

Tonight will be a long night.

[Pearl River]

I wonder what the 18z models are seeing? 18z GFDL makes landfall near Pascagoula. 18z HWRF near NOLA.

[PTPatrick]

Strength at landfall on Gfdl? My folks live in east Moss point on in a wetland bayou :-/ right on the water at the ms/al line....I joke that they have the farthest southeast address in Mississppi

[Turtle]

Well, we can always expect models to shift. I am in Texas but watching this closely.

Thanks to all the people posting runs of the models.

[Ixolib]

If someone counted all the words in this thread that are spelled "W-E-S-T", and then counted all the words that are spelled "E-A-S-T", I wonder which word would win.

[MidnightRain]

Expect a shift east at 0z, that's one trend we've learned....if goes one way then it goes back the other way.

[Hurricane Andrew]

First of the major 0z models, the NAM,coming up within 1 hour, 15 minutes. After that, the GFS.

[tropicwatch]

I think the models that are leaning towards SE FL and eastward are relying on the 200-700mb steering layer.



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[Stormlover2012]

well i mean they are shifting west with more data also so who knows lol crazy

[LSU2001]

PTPatrick,
Would that be Bayou Herring?? I grew up off of Franklin Creek rd. Now I live in the marsh of south La.
Tim

I don't want to see any shifts left. Any track west of the Miss. River would put my area under water.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I really dont follow or have any faith in the HWRF model but my god that would be epic flooding here in SE LA. Could only imagine if more models shift, dare I say WEST, and stall this thing right after landfall. Would be one for the ages. Just have to see how many more runs show this before buying in. They got me yesterday with all the left shifts then swung back east, so who the hell knows right now.