ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jevo]

We really need to start discerning landfalls...

In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...

So as a reminder

[meriland23]

just checked out new gfs... am I seein things right? Did it go from near the big bend at 12z to bama at 18z? my goodness..

[KBBOCA]

We really need to start discerning landfalls...

In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...

Can I add my "AMEN!" to what Jevo wrote?
Isaac may potentially have 3 CONUS landfalls on some of these tracks - Keys, S FL peninsula, NGOM. In some case the track has shifted eastward for the earlier timeframe / landfall on the S FL peninsula, only to shift westward for the later part of the track...

So, please try to distinguish what portion of the track has moved, otherwise it really IS confusing. I've been frustrated by that blanket statement "it's moved east" "it's moved west" so many times in the past few days. Thanks.

[ColdFusion]

Welcome back Meriland. You are correct! and HWRF around NOLA, and GFDL says approx Biloxi.

[ROCK]

what I find interesting is the stall by the GFS....and then I looked at the EURO ensembles that does the same and drifts this west over LA and then even into Texas....NAM though doesnt have a clue on TS position of strength might be on to something with a stronger ridge though..JMO..

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Rock, just wondering... how much credence do you have on a stall at any point and then a westerly drift? Is it just the Euro or what? Thanks.

this is another run with a stall...obvously they are all sniffing something ...that ridge builds in quicker it could stalll off the coast....some of these runs are already for the most part...

[artist]

We really need to start discerning landfalls...

In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...

So as a reminder

Bravo!! It has been very confusing for us in south FLorida if not mentioning which landfall when mentioning direction change on the models.

[meriland23]

seems to be crawling this one, and very disorganized. Should this shift from nw to wnw cause of this? I could see that result missing haiti but also going over most of cuba which might just off the thing entirely.. once it reaches the gulf, if it picks up again, would definitely go WEST. So this is what you got. NW and fast, above cuba and mostly over water, but less time in gulf waters and more eastern in slightly cooler gulf waters or slower and more westward, going through mountains and terrain .. but ending up in the warmest waters of the gulf as a incredibly weak system lol.

[Countrygirl911]

Could it really sit there in one spot after land fall it looks to say put for a day and a half only moving about 150 miles in that day and a half and bairly comming into the SW mississippi. it that pans out NO, MS, AL would be completely flooded and destroyed because it doen not look to weaken that much after it makes landfall and the day and a half it just sits there

[Hurricane Andrew]

0z Predictions
NAM: Further East/North, east of the GFDL.

[ColdFusion]

seems to be crawling this one, and very disorganized. Should this shift from nw to wnw cause of this? I could see that result missing haiti but also going over most of cuba which might just off the thing entirely.. once it reaches the gulf, if it picks up again, would definitely go WEST. So this is what you got. NW and fast, above cuba and mostly over land, but less time in gulf waters and more eastern in slightly cooler gulf waters or slower and more westward, going through mountains and terrain .. but ending up in the warmest waters of the gulf as a incredibly weak system lol.

Storm forward speed, storm strength, land interaction effects, ridge strength, steering currents - all a bunch of uncertain factors at this point 2-3 days out.

[BigB0882]

I see no point in predicting the NAM. It clearly has no grasp on TC movement. Just use it to look at synoptics, as well know by now. The last run had the thing way down in the central Gulf for goodness sake. You should also edit your signature or whatever that is because there is absolutely no "eye" with Isaac. There WAS an "eye like feature" which is not the same but recon has said it is no longer present.

I forgot to quote. This is for Hurricane Andrew.

[ROCK]

0z Predictions
NAM: Further East/North, east of the GFDL.

the NAM is a CONUS model for the most part....the only thing I would be looking at is the synopics up stream and how it would translate to Isaac in the long run....ie ridging...

[wxwatcher1999]

what happen with the models....i go to my boys football practice and come back and everything has shifted....can someone explain whats causing this please?

[Jevo]

what happen with the models....i go to my boys football practice and come back and everything has shifted....can someone explain whats causing this please?

.... Everything hasn't shifted... At the end of a few model run the location of the 2nd CONUS landfall in the NGOM shifted left by a nominal/moderate amount..

The 0z models will be running shortly with G-IV data so stay tuned

[Hurricane Andrew]

Let the games begin.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nvest1.gif

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif

[SapphireSea]

Looks like a hard bend back West during the early part of the forecast. Mid-Lower keys this time on the consensus?

[Blown Away]

Not many storms have tracked along Isaac's projected path. Also, earlier when the models were showing a hard right over the Panhandle, I thought that was an unusual track. Georges is the most noteable storm to follow Isaac's projected path. I think Isaac will have more surprises for us before it's all said and done.

[BigB0882]

Let the games begin.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... nvest1.gif

What is with the Climatology models being so drastically different from a day ago? I think they were showing it in the Central Gulf yesterday and now it is East of Florida. I know that it is not a model, just climatology. I just can't believe the slight change in position changes things that drastically based on what other storms have done! Am I missing something?

[jinftl]

Latest model consensus shows a few important things:

* tracks that spend less time over Cuba in general
* legitimate threat to the Keys of at least a strong tropical storm - although if these forecasts hold, a hurricane watch and ts warning are coming soon for the Keys
* after the Keys, Isaac is in the Gulf where he is landlocked and will have to impact someone