ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Can anybody tell me why this storm fails to intensify? The waters are very warm, shear is light and the air is supposedly moist. There are many other tropical cyclones that pass over much more hostile environments and they still strengthen. Hurricane Chris was over 22°C waters, yet it still managed to briefly make it to hurricane status. Another example, Hurricane Daniel in the eastern Pacific in 2012, was supposed to pass over cooler waters as a weak Category 1, yet it became a Category 3, even though the eye already crossed the 26°C isotherm.

So my opinion on this storm is - it can be impressive at times, but note that it never made it above 60 mph so far. I am not saying that it will not strengthen further but it seems less likely given the current trends. It had an excellent outflow just less than two days ago, but the cyclone remained extremely weak in both intensity and wind speed. I most certainly will be looking out for better periods of activity coming from the CV waves.

_____________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

Like tailgater said, I think this is exploding a hurricane dvorak quickly and making up for lost time.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Can anybody tell me why this storm fails to intensify? The waters are very warm, shear is light and the air is supposedly moist. There are many other tropical cyclones that pass over much more hostile environments and they still strengthen. Hurricane Chris was over 22°C waters, yet it still managed to briefly make it to hurricane status. Another example, Hurricane Daniel in the eastern Pacific in 2012, was supposed to pass over cooler waters as a weak Category 1, yet it became a Category 3, even though the eye already crossed the 26°C isotherm.

So my opinion on this storm is - it can be impressive at times, but note that it never made it above 60 mph so far. I am not saying that it will not strengthen further but it seems less likely given the current trends. It had an excellent outflow just less than two days ago, but the cyclone remained extremely weak in both intensity and wind speed. I most certainly will be looking out for better periods of activity coming from the CV waves.

_____________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually recon suggest this storm has winds of 60+mph.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Can anybody tell me why this storm fails to intensify? The waters are very warm, shear is light and the air is supposedly moist. There are many other tropical cyclones that pass over much more hostile environments and they still strengthen. Hurricane Chris was over 22°C waters, yet it still managed to briefly make it to hurricane status. Another example, Hurricane Daniel in the eastern Pacific in 2012, was supposed to pass over cooler waters as a weak Category 1, yet it became a Category 3, even though the eye already crossed the 26°C isotherm.

So my opinion on this storm is - it can be impressive at times, but note that it never made it above 60 mph so far. I am not saying that it will not strengthen further but it seems less likely given the current trends. It had an excellent outflow just less than two days ago, but the cyclone remained extremely weak in both intensity and wind speed. I most certainly will be looking out for better periods of activity coming from the CV waves.

_____________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

lol Pressure is now down to 995mb unofficially still waiting for official word from the VDM. It's down atleast below 1000mb. So this is the lowest pressure Ernesto has ever had. It just takes some time for the winds to get caught up to the pressure drops.

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KNHC 061233
XXAA 56128 99156 70800 04450 99997 27629 10543 00526 ///// /////
92664 24242 15037 85410 25662 21018 88999 77999
31313 09608 81213
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1559N07997W 1216 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
031 997842 WL150 12545 084 REL 1557N07996W 121353 SPG 1559N07997W
121636 =
XXBB 56128 99156 70800 04450 00997 27629 11927 24240 22913 26658
33890 24858 44872 27263 55850 25662
21212 00997 10543 11993 12049 22984 13543 33965 16044 44947 16045
55934 16036 66926 15537 77918 15531 88907 15532 99898 14025 11882
14027 22873 13518 33867 16514 44854 21517 55842 21019
31313 09608 81213
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1559N07997W 1216 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
031 997842 WL150 12545 084 REL 1557N07996W 121353 SPG 1559N07997W
121636 =
;

997mb with 43kt wind...um wow.

[AJC3]

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KNHC 061233
XXAA 56128 99156 70800 04450 99997 27629 10543 00526 ///// /////
92664 24242 15037 85410 25662 21018 88999 77999
31313 09608 81213
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1559N07997W 1216 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
031 997842 WL150 12545 084 REL 1557N07996W 121353 SPG 1559N07997W
121636 =
XXBB 56128 99156 70800 04450 00997 27629 11927 24240 22913 26658
33890 24858 44872 27263 55850 25662
21212 00997 10543 11993 12049 22984 13543 33965 16044 44947 16045
55934 16036 66926 15537 77918 15531 88907 15532 99898 14025 11882
14027 22873 13518 33867 16514 44854 21517 55842 21019
31313 09608 81213
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1559N07997W 1216 MBL WND 14543 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
031 997842 WL150 12545 084 REL 1557N07996W 121353 SPG 1559N07997W
121636 =
;

Dropsonde in center shows 997mb with a 43kt wind. Pressure is at least 995 if not lower.

[AJC3]

000
URNT12 KNHC 061233
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/12:13:30Z
B. 15 deg 34 min N
079 deg 59 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 56 kt
E. 291 deg 5 nm
F. 170 deg 55 kt
G. 100 deg 4 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 24 C / 1469 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL <---
M. C6 <---
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 06
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 40 KT E QUAD 12:14:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 211 / 0 NM FROM FL CNTR
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

RI here we come!!!

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

VDM reports CLOSED eyewall only six miles wide and a good radar signature. Could be an interesting day for Belize.

[tolakram]

Latest

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow VDM shows closed eyewall of 6 NM in diameter. That is very small! Nice warm core too. They also noted good radar signature. Looks like he is about to bomb in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

VDM reports CLOSED eyewall only six miles wide and a good radar signature. Could be an interesting day for Belize.

Here is the decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W) B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good

[SouthDadeFish]

Also the dropsonde that measured 997mb, found 43 knot winds at the surface, so the pressure is probably even lower.

[RL3AO]

BEST TRACK: AL05, 156N 801W, 55kts, 994mb, TS

Wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory including hurricane warnings for parts of the coast of Honduras.

[drezee]

As important is the temp differential is 7C from inside and outside the eye... this means it is using the heat transfer process very effectively right now...Ernie could pop quickly

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061240
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 24 20120806
123200 1456N 08037W 8429 01558 0082 +173 +135 337012 013 000 004 00
123230 1454N 08038W 8430 01558 0082 +177 +135 326012 013 001 004 00
123300 1453N 08039W 8429 01561 0082 +176 +135 317014 014 001 005 00
123330 1452N 08040W 8430 01558 0084 +171 +136 317012 014 000 003 00
123400 1451N 08042W 8430 01559 0087 +170 +137 307012 012 000 003 00
123430 1450N 08043W 8428 01563 0085 +173 +137 303011 011 000 004 00
123500 1449N 08044W 8429 01562 0086 +175 +138 294011 011 000 004 00
123530 1448N 08045W 8431 01559 0084 +176 +138 303012 013 000 004 03
123600 1446N 08045W 8426 01566 0081 +180 +140 298012 013 /// /// 03
123630 1446N 08043W 8439 01552 0087 +172 +143 303009 013 000 005 03
123700 1447N 08042W 8428 01563 0085 +174 +145 311006 009 001 005 00
123730 1447N 08040W 8425 01567 0081 +181 +143 282009 010 000 004 00
123800 1447N 08038W 8429 01561 0082 +177 +142 286010 011 000 004 00
123830 1447N 08036W 8430 01558 0084 +175 +142 290011 011 000 004 00
123900 1447N 08035W 8432 01557 0080 +177 +141 281011 011 000 003 00
123930 1447N 08033W 8429 01559 0079 +180 +141 282011 012 000 003 00
124000 1447N 08031W 8430 01558 0077 +180 +141 272012 012 000 002 00
124030 1448N 08029W 8429 01559 0076 +181 +142 264012 013 000 002 00
124100 1448N 08027W 8429 01558 0076 +184 +142 252010 012 000 004 00
124130 1448N 08026W 8429 01559 0077 +183 +144 254009 010 000 004 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

lol And just think... Yesterday people were ready to write off Ernesto including my self. Today is a whole new day and whole new chapter in Ernesto's life ready to be written!

[Sanibel]

RI here we come!!!

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

I agree. All the signs are there. Belize should take notice.

Don't forget to add the speed at which this snap-together happened. All conforming to potential RI. Not to mention the area where RI's have occurred before. This is a classic precursor to RI.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[christchurchguy]

pinhole eye?