ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Folks, I am going to have a new kind of forecast I post. it will have three codes.

YELLOW: An upgrade to red is likely.
RED: Winds of 60 or more miles per hour are possible, and or Heavy, Flooding rains, as well as surge.
PURPLE: Winds could exceed 96 miles per hour, with widespread damage expected.

These alerts will be issued per county, or for example, The Western Keys.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
I would love to hear your feedback.

Where did you get that map? I like it and would like to draw one.

[CronkPSU]

not spending a lot of time over land until with that track...that is scary...seems like it should hit as a cat 2 or 3 with those warm waters and that much time in the gulf

[ObsessedMiami]

Wow. Phil Ferro just announced on WSVN Miami that the Keys were under a hurricane warning. Little quick on the trigger there. It's hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, correct?

Edit: Phil corrected himself after the commercial

[Hurricane Andrew]

Folks, I am going to have a new kind of forecast I post. it will have three codes.

YELLOW: An upgrade to red is likely.
RED: Winds of 60 or more miles per hour are possible, and or Heavy, Flooding rains, as well as surge.
PURPLE: Winds could exceed 96 miles per hour, with widespread damage expected.

These alerts will be issued per county, or for example, The Western Keys.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
I would love to hear your feedback.

Where did you get that map? I like it and would like to draw one.

That is from the storm2k map selection.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/S2k/s2kmaps.htm

[hurricanes1234]

Pinhole eye on 2:15 UTC image!

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've seen tropical storms with an eye before (Allison and 2008 Fay) but they were inland and had special conditions to develop an eye like feature, Isaac is still over water and microwave shows a developing eyewall, I would have pulled the trigger to hurricane status right now. Anyway virtually there's no difference between a 60 kt TS or a 65 kt hurricane, the effects will be the same in Haiti I just hope it begins to move faster so it won't have more time to strengthen.

[ColdFusion]

Pinhole eye on 2:15 UTC image!

Might look like one, but a 70mph storm doesnt produce a real pinhole eye.

[SouthFLTropics]

It could just be me but it almost looks like Hispaniola may be pulling the center to the NNW with frictional forces and rotational dynamics. Not sure if those are appropriate scientific terms or not. This is what I spoke about previously about the land causing track changes and center reformations.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

It could just be me but it almost looks like Hispaniola may be pulling the center to the NNW with frictional forces and rotational dynamics. Not sure if those are appropriate scientific terms or not. This is what I spoke about previously about the land causing track changes and center reformations.

SFT

yeah, close enough. I mentioned it a few times before we need to watch for this. just have to wait and see.

[HurricaneWarning92]

you and i both lol. Im seeing a NNW movement, but it could just be an optical illusion.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

Dennis Phillips on ABC news in Tampa basicly said don't get caught up with the ups and downs of the east and west flip flopping. And the NHC seemed to be going with the Euro model for this track update.

[weatherSnoop]

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH 11PM ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Caymans to the Bahamas is quite a large swath...No comfort in this news

[Meteorcane]

Cuba looks like the real wild card, if it can only spend a few hours over Cuba it could be a Cat.1 hurricane when it hits Keys/SwFL. Also they must be really thinking hard over that discussion

[CronkPSU]

still no discussion on the NHC webpage!!!???

[KBBOCA]

What are the implications for Tampa with a storm track like this. Am I right in remembering that if the storm hits from the SE that winds from the SW could push water into the bay?

I confess I'm too tired tonight to do the research, and if someone here has a ready answer, it would be appreciated.

[MetroMike]

Does anyone have the 11pm Forecast disc.? NHC site has no update yet.

[HarryPotter]

still no discussion on the NHC webpage!!!???

Ok, good it's not just me! I've been hitting refresh every few seconds thinking something was wrong!

[Blown Away]

Looks like NNW movement at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Really nice wind and rain moving through Hobe Sound now!

[jinftl]

Cone is showing less time over Cuba...could have as much as 24 hours over 88-90 deg water as moves off of Cuba towards the Keys..if he skims the north coast of cuba instead, than he would be much weaker when he finally emerges south of key west. Hurricane watch is warranted for the Keys for sure.

And Miami - you are in the cone.