ATL: ISAAC - Models

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#3581 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:47 pm

54 hours moved very slowly north right against the west coast near naples.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3582 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:49 pm

Trapped under ridge, Looks like WNW from here?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3583 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:50 pm

slower than the 18Z thats for sure
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#3584 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:50 pm

hmmm its really slow this time, its about 100 miles se of the 18z position at 66 hours and just crawling.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3585 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 pm

What kind of strength is that GFS depicting? This model has just locked onto us here in Southern FL, that's for sure lol
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#3586 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:54 hours moved very slowly north right against the west coast near naples.


Does it then start moving WNW after 54 hours because between 48 and 60 it goes NW if you measure between the two. So if you say N from 48 to 54 then it must be more WNW between 54 and 60? Curious to see next image. Or maybe I just see it different than you?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3587 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 pm

0z GFS +72

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#3588 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:51 pm

Well just wonderful...more time over water to intensify.
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#3589 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:52 pm

apparently from jevos image 6 hours later still has not moved much...
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#3590 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:53 pm

its quite a bit stronger this run now and at 72 hours is again about 100 miles se of the 18z... again basically drifting.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3591 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:54 pm

Just don't understand why NHC would be conservative on strength.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3592 Postby timmeister » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:55 pm

00Z GFS 78 HRS

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3593 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:55 pm

0z GFS +84

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3594 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:56 pm

At 84 looks like ridge breaking and moving towards Appalachicola/Panama City??
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#3595 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 pm

so there is essentially no change to the gfs. its only 6 hours slower actually. was comparing the 72 hours 18z is exaclty where the 84hr 00z was and every six hours they were exactly the same distance apart ... seems this essentially was almost an update.
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#3596 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 pm

Looks a touch east for second landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3597 Postby Pearl River » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 pm

Mobile Bay at 93 hrs.
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#3598 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 pm

Unfortunatley I like the GFS but I don't like where it is puting Isaac at this point.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3599 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 pm

0z GFS +90 (2nd CONUS Landfall)

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3600 Postby MidnightRain » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 pm

Pearl River wrote:Mobile Bay at 93 hrs.
Not exactly, more like Panama City.
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