ATL: ISAAC - Models

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SunnyThoughts
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#3601 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 pm

well it covers the entire western panhandle...from Pensacola down to panama city/port st. joe/apalachicola
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3602 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:00 pm

0z GFS +99

Image
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#3603 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:00 pm

That's not Mobile Bay landfall, definitely in Florida. Looks right where it was this earlier today.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3604 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:00 pm

The models seem to be stuck on between about Biloxi and Apalachicola every time. I keep expecting them to change but they never do. Why would that be? Still plenty of time for change-maybe tomorrow :roll:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3605 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:01 pm

I really need this to get as far away from Tampa as possible by Thursday night. I'm scheduled to fly from Houston to Tampa then and I'd hate for Isaac to ruin my vacation. Hopefully the models start showing a pick up in forward speed!
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#3606 Postby Sabanic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:01 pm

Close enough for discomfort



BigB0882 wrote:That's not Mobile Bay landfall, definitely in Florida. Looks right where it was this earlier today.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3607 Postby Pearl River » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:02 pm

MidnighyRain
Pearl River wrote:
Mobile Bay at 93 hrs.
Not exactly, more like Panama City.


I guess it depends on what maps you look at. Instant Weather maps shows Mobile Bay.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012082418&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=090
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3608 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:02 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:The models seem to be stuck on between about Biloxi and Apalachicola every time. I keep expecting them to change but they never do. Why would that be? Still plenty of time for change-maybe tomorrow :roll:


I keep hoping it will change. But it doesn't seem to be doing any good.
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#3609 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:03 pm

BigB0882 wrote:That's not Mobile Bay landfall, definitely in Florida. Looks right where it was this earlier today.



Now lets see if it stalls....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3610 Postby Javlin » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:03 pm

That looks close enough to the last two runs AL/FL maybe alittle E of there.See if the hours after landfall show any steering?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3611 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:03 pm

Pearl River wrote:MidnighyRain
Pearl River wrote:
Mobile Bay at 93 hrs.
Not exactly, more like Panama City.


I guess it depends on what maps you look at. Instant Weather maps shows Mobile Bay.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012082418&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=090


That is the 18z. So this one is a smidge East for the final landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3612 Postby hcane27 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:04 pm

Nope .... Destin
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3613 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:05 pm

0z GFS +111

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3614 Postby Pearl River » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:06 pm

You're right, sorry my bad. Darn bifocals.
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#3615 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:07 pm

Heading NNE after landfall but very slowly? Timing is going to be so key on this thing.
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Re:

#3616 Postby SeminoleWind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:09 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Heading NNE after landfall but very slowly? Timing is going to be so key on this thing.


Question, could it start its NNE or NE turn before landfall?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3617 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:09 pm

If im reading the GFS right, its moving really slow, but if im reading the pattern on it right I would thing it would move more NNE than it is near northern gulf landfall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Re:

#3618 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:10 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Heading NNE after landfall but very slowly? Timing is going to be so key on this thing.


Question, could it start its NNE or NE turn before landfall?


yes if it takes its time getting out of the carribean.
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#3619 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:11 pm

Looks like I might need an ARK before all said and done...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3620 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:12 pm

basically just sits inland until about 129hr then gets ejected NE....
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