ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
FIXES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORCAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA AND NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED TO A
POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 18Z GFS MODEL...
WHICH SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF ITS 12Z TRACK...CAPTURED THIS FARTHER
EAST POSITION...WHEREAS THE 18Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA VALID AT 00Z THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AT 00Z THIS
EVENING...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND KEEPING ISAAC ON A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE
MODELS AFTER THAT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242055.shtml

Given the stronger intensity and the likelihood of less land interaction with Haiti and Cuba (due to Isaac threading the Mona Passage), South FL and the Keys might need to watch out, as the stronger TC might go even farther north before turning back to the NW in about one and a half days.

Yeah I have to admit I am now on my guard a Cat.1 hurricane affecting South Florida is now a distinct possibility.

[ConvergenceZone]

With less land interaction anticipated, anyone else shocked that they are still keeping this as only a cat 1 hurricane?

[jeff]

I've been a member for a long time, but do not think I have ever posted until now.

I have a question. If tropical storm force wings are predicted at 185 miles from the center of the storm, and it is predicted to go up the west coast of FL at least through Sunday, why haven't we seen TS watches go up further along the coast to this point? Is it just too early (i.e. outside of the 48 hour time frame)?

It would seem to reason that we should be seeing something at least as far north as Ft. Myers and Sarasota.

Yes, watches will move up the FL west coast as the areas fall within the 48 hour from onset time period.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, do not forget about the people of Haiti...they have a rough night ahead of them with Port-au-Prince poised to receive locally heavy rainfall due to the orographic effects of the mountains. With so much temporary housing still in place since the earthquake, an already devastating situation due to deforestation could be exacerbated with further potential for disease. Yes, FL is in the path, but do not forget the Haitian, Cuban, and Bahamian folk now.

[brunota2003]

With less land interaction anticipated, anyone else shocked that they are still keeping this as only a cat 1 hurricane?

Nope...instability is lower than usual in the GOM (according to a promet from earlier), and the NHC is probably waiting to see what Isaac looks like on the other side of land before going too high.

[Wx_Warrior]

With less land interaction anticipated, anyone else shocked that they are still keeping this as only a cat 1 hurricane?

Yes, too conservative in my opinion.

[Jevo]

Miami Met is saying on tv that the tropical storm warning for SFL is only for a narrow strip from I 95 to the Atlantic along the coast. Can this be right for a storm passing by to the west????

If it was Ferro, just change the channel... lol.

Seriously though they would have specified in the Advisory if it was a coastal warning or not. Being that all of inhabited Broward and Dade county lives within 15 lies of the shore.. A warning usually extends to the entire area.. I don't believe I've ever seen a coastal advisory for SE Florida

This was the wording from the advisory

"THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD"

Miami TV Mets aren't what they used to be... To bad Norcross left

[Meteorcane]

With less land interaction anticipated, anyone else shocked that they are keeping this as only a cat 1 hurricane?

Intensity forecasting is a very difficult science, better to be conservative especially considering the fact that this system is a very slow organizer. Also the Gulf is not as warm as it usually is this time of year, and as others have mentioned the lack of instability in the GOM could limit the condensation, and consequently limit the storm's power. That being said if Isaac hugs the eastern side of the cone I imagine a Cat.1 at 1st landfall and a Cat.2 at second landfall. Also I should note that 90 mph is not very far off of Cat.2 strength.

[summersquall]

I've been a member for a long time, but do not think I have ever posted until now.

I have a question. If tropical storm force wings are predicted at 185 miles from the center of the storm, and it is predicted to go up the west coast of FL at least through Sunday, why haven't we seen TS watches go up further along the coast to this point? Is it just too early (i.e. outside of the 48 hour time frame)?

It would seem to reason that we should be seeing something at least as far north as Ft. Myers and Sarasota.

From the 11 pm Public Advisory:

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM... MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

Think it's a little too early to put up the watches and warnings, i.e outside the 48 and 36 hour parameters.

Getting gusty here.

[jinftl]

Dave Bernard on CBS4 Miami is showing a 24 hour+ period of sustained winds from 40-70 mph across all of South Florida starting early Sunday am.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Talked with my sister down in Ft Lauderdale......not a concern in the world. "Just gonna get a little wind, they say its gonna hit way down in the Keys....." Hope this is not the prevelant attitude in south FLA......MGC

Sadly, this seems to be the attitude of those I've seen in stores, and friends I've talked too. No one down here seems the least bit concerned.

Hopefully Isaac stays just like the nhc forecasts, a tropical storm.

[tropicwatch]

The latest advisory indicates 14mph NW I have doubts about the speed.



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[weatherSnoop]

Miami Met is saying on tv that the tropical storm warning for SFL is only for a narrow strip from I 95 to the Atlantic along the coast. Can this be right for a storm passing by to the west????

If it was Ferro, just change the channel... lol.

Seriously though they would have specified in the Advisory if it was a coastal warning or not. Being that all of inhabited Broward and Dade county lives within 15 lies of the shore.. A warning usually extends to the entire area.. I don't believe I've ever seen a coastal advisory for SE Florida

This was the wording from the advisory

That speaks to me that the timing is a little off to issue warnings. Maybe it is enough to get people paying attention in froont of the 8 ball, rather than behind

[SunnyThoughts]

argggg I hope recon makes it there before landfall

[jinftl]

Now that there's a hurricane watch for the Keys, that changes the level of response and alert from Monroe County officials. We could very well see an evacuation order for non-residents by morning. Already Monroe County (FL Keys) schools have been closed for Monday.

Talked with my sister down in Ft Lauderdale......not a concern in the world. "Just gonna get a little wind, they say its gonna hit way down in the Keys....." Hope this is not the prevelant attitude in south FLA......MGC

Sadly, this seems to be the attitude of those I've seen in stores, and friends I've talked too. No one down here seems the least bit concerned.

Hopefully Isaac stays just like the nhc forecasts, a tropical storm.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Here is my thinking. Note: this is ONLY through 72 hours (0600Z August 28). It ignores impacts beyond that (the Gulf Coast colors are for the next 72 hours).

The color codes:

Green - Squally conditions with tropical storm force gusts

Yellow - Isolated to scattered tropical storm conditions, especially in exposed areas (i.e. near/over water)

Orange - Scattered to widespread tropical storm conditions, peak winds over 50 knots in exposed areas

Red - Widespread tropical storm conditions with some over 50 knots, peak winds of hurricane force in exposed areas

Fuchsia - Scattered to widespread hurricane conditions, peak winds of Category 2 force in exposed areas

White (w/ number) - Widespread hurricane conditions, peak winds of Category 3, 4 or 5 force in exposed areas (per number)

[lilybeth]

By the way, do not forget about the people of Haiti...they have a rough night ahead of them with Port-au-Prince poised to receive locally heavy rainfall due to the orographic effects of the mountains. With so much temporary housing still in place since the earthquake, an already devastating situation due to deforestation could be exacerbated with further potential for disease. Yes, FL is in the path, but do not forget the Haitian, Cuban, and Bahamian folk now.

Haiti was also my initial concern a few days ago with the track early on as well. There are so many living in tents, temporary shelters (i.e. shanties or temporary-aid trailers, etc) that it really worries me for them. Of course, I worry for anyone in the way of possible Tropical storms, but Haiti, they are in a bad way right now.

I wonder what kind of infrastructure they have in place as far as storm warnings. Are they able to communicate to a good number of their citizens at this point? I might have to do some digging around and see what I can find but if anyone knows the answer to that, it would be nice to know.

Sending lots of good thoughts and hoping everyone stays as safe as possible.

[stephen23]

I have a question. Just back from eating dinner and was looking at this. From where this appears to probably make landfall there is a valley across Haiti that elevations are less then 1000 ft above sea level in that area all the way across island. If this system hits the valley will that help it maintain strength?

[WxEnthus]

argggg I hope recon makes it there before landfall

When is the next recon mission?

[Aric Dunn]

its finally on the move again though appears to be taking a more nnw motion. Will that continue is the question.