ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Dean4Storms
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Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:That run takes it right over Fort Walton Bch/Destin area or right over the top of me. Pray it's nothing more than a Cat1 that's for sure!
Dean you don't deserve another one in your lifetime after the other.
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Does anyone know where to get the probabilities listing that it will hit X area? I know that in past years, people posted it here (or a link to it), but I don't know where to go to get it! Thanks!
edited: sorry! Just realized I was in the wrong thread and moved it to discussion thread. my bad!
edited: sorry! Just realized I was in the wrong thread and moved it to discussion thread. my bad!
Last edited by smw1981 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
00z HWRF spends very little time over Cuba, pretty similar to previous runs, looks like Upper Keys as 1st landfall.
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meriland23
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say the eye is just north of cuba, in the waters like models depict.. will the mtns effect the strengthening of the system?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z HWRF 48 HRS Landfall South Florida
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/00zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest048.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/00zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest048.gif
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Re:
smw1981 wrote:Does anyone know where to get the probabilities listing that it will hit X area? I know that in past years, people posted it here (or a link to it), but I don't know where to go to get it! Thanks!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0248.shtml
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Jevo
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0z HWRF Initialized
0z HWRF +24
0z HWRF +42
0z HWRF +24
0z HWRF +42
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z HWRF +48 (1st CONUS Landfall)
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z HWRF +60
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
So the GFS isn't good with pressure/intensity. It paints my area with 48 hr rainfall totals of 9". Are tropical precipitation estimates accurate?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
from South Florida to Pensacola.. every wobble will be watched .. and models too.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z HWRF +72
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
This hwrf is def east of 18z at 72 hrs...maybe 50-100 miles. Doubt this is another nola run
Edit: at 78 looks more like 100-150 miles east. The 18z gunned it toward Nola at the end game. Not happening on this one.
Edit: at 78 looks more like 100-150 miles east. The 18z gunned it toward Nola at the end game. Not happening on this one.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
bamajammer4eva wrote:So the GFS isn't good with pressure/intensity. It paints my area with 48 hr rainfall totals of 9". Are tropical precipitation estimates accurate?
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-5.shtml
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
This one looks like mobile bay 84 -96 hours
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Jevo
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0z HWRF +84
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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