ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pricetag56]

:uarrow: hmm I thought the gulf was more worm than usual? iono..iono anymore lol.. it'll do what it'll do

the gulf is also a hot spot but the florida straits has been a hot spot too i think some of the loop current runs in the straits too thats why maybe?

[timmeister]

Looks to be very close to making landfall in Haiti, RECON should confirm.

Looks like COC is already onshore @ 04:45 UTC

[floridasun78]

From Joe Bastardi:

"Expect this to be 970 mb or lower by Sunday evening."

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 48/photo/1

he want this isaac be south fl hurr he saying sf landfall past few twitter

[thetruesms]

[I'm confused...do you want to reach major status? Or did you think it would?

Huh? No I don't want it to be a huge thing like that, but I have heard from several mets that the time spent in the gulf... it very very well could, I just don't see how it could given the short amount of time

Gotcha..that's what I wondered because I haven't heard that. I know some mets on here have said that they don't think it could get that too terribly strong because the gulf isn't as warm as it normally is (and some other things that I don't remember because it's been a long night of tropics watching!), hence why I was confused! I, of course, have no idea...

It's not so much that the SSTs are cold, in fact they're pretty close to normal:


What it is, is that the heat content of the upper portion of the Eastern Gulf is not particularly high right now. This may be because there are cold sub-surface anomalies, but also the Eastern Gulf is relatively shallow compared to the rest of the body. That could also limit the potential available heat.

[Dean4Storms]

It's quite possible if this misses much of the land of Cuba that it could deepen fairly rapidly before affecting the Keys and south Florida now that it's become better organized.

[floridasun78]

ok now i worry cannot sleep well be up 5am for next avd see if noaa radio wakeme up 4:35am for hurr watch i live mobile home that worry about too

[pricetag56]

I don't know how this will ever...ever reach major hurricane status if it only has 96 hrs before landfall

hurricane wilma went from a ts to a cat 5 in 24 hrs

[JabNOLA]

You might Google 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for an example:

The storm was born as a small tropical disturbance due east of Florida near the Bahamas in late August. The disturbance moved westward toward the Gulf Stream, and U.S. weather forecasters became aware of a potential tropical storm. The tropical storm strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane as it neared the southern tip of Andros Island in the Bahamas early on September 1.
As the hurricane passed over the warm Gulf Stream late on September 1 it underwent rapid deepening. It intensified without pause for a day and a half while its track made a gentle turn to the northwest, toward Islamorada in the Upper Keys. The hurricane reached peak intensity on September 2, making landfall between 8:30 and 9:30 p.m. EST at Craig Key.

CAT. 5

[smw1981]

ohhh..that makes complete sense thetruesms! Thank you for that explanation. Meriland..that is what I saw earlier today, just said it wrong!

[brunota2003]

Here is the latest and greatest. The NHC still hasn't put out a 20% or greater for hurricane force winds yet, surprisingly. They did expand the 10 to 20%, though, so I expect later today we'll get to see the first reds on my map! The 50 knot + region was expanded and now includes part of southern Florida, along with part of the panhandle and Alabama. All of Florida, except the very NE corner, is at risk of tropical storm force winds. Once again, the map is custom made.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

the G-IV is airborne now to sample the atmosphere.
Recon found SFMR winds of 69 mph recently.

[SouthFloridawx]

[artist]

you know, it seems to me we watched a storm many years ago that seemed to seek out the lowest and point as well as the quickest route over here. Can't for the life of me remember what storm it was!

[stephen23]

On that track does it look to anyone else it's going to shoot through the valley and miss Cuba all together?

[smw1981]

New Advisory:

Still 990mb, moving NW at 13mph

[floridasun78]

New Advisory:

Still 990mb, moving NW at 13mph

did pressure drop more?

[smw1981]

Also TWC just said center is "very near" Haiti's shore, so I guess they are not saying he has made landfall yet..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km...mainly northwest and northeast of the center.

[pricetag56]

[quote="stephen23"]On that track does it look to anyone else it's going to shoot through the valley and miss Cuba all together?[/quot
Theres a high chance but looks like its gonna make some contact

[smw1981]

artist, were you thinking that Dean was SeaninNewOrleans? That is one person I can think of that was here for Katrina but I never see anymore on here. (I was on here under a different name then.)