ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Jevo
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#3721 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:28 am

G-IV is in the air now..

From the HRD: The G-IV is scheduled to fly a synoptic surveillance mission very early this morning, with a takeoff time of 0530 UTC (1:30AM EDT) from MacDill AFB. Recovery will be at MacDill as well. The G-IV crew will be sampling the subtropical ridge north of Isaac as well as circumnavigating the storm. Here’s their flight track.

Image


Should have the data for 12Z tomorrow..
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#3722 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:30 am

thanks for posting the model run everybody. Appreciate it.
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Re:

#3723 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:30 am

Jevo wrote:G-IV is in the air now..

From the HRD: The G-IV is scheduled to fly a synoptic surveillance mission very early this morning, with a takeoff time of 0530 UTC (1:30AM EDT) from MacDill AFB. Recovery will be at MacDill as well. The G-IV crew will be sampling the subtropical ridge north of Isaac as well as circumnavigating the storm. Here’s their flight track.

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/8485 ... 2n49tr.gif


Should have the data for 12Z tomorrow..



So... they should be about a hour in already? how long does it take to recoved data for that?
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#3724 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:30 am

meriland23 wrote:euro is MUCH weaker this run


Its not, still shows pressure down to 966mbs which is pretty close to what it showed yesterday for strength.
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#3725 Postby timmeister » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:36 am

Looks like the 00Z GFS and 00Z EURO are in agreement except for intensity.

00Z EURO 96 HRS (979.6 mb CAT 2)

Image

00Z GFS 96 HRS (991.9 mb TS/CAT 1)

Image
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#3726 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:38 am

The EURO still looks weirdo with what it does after landfall....but, we now have some EXCELLENT agreement.
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#3727 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:38 am

Super thanks to all of you staying up late posting the model runs! I definitely appreciate each of you who have taken the time to do this this week!
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#3728 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:39 am

:uarrow: don't pay attention to the strength, as hard as it is not to. Probably the most unpredictable thing to figure out when it comes to these things.
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#3729 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:43 am

Well, now GFS and EURO are close again to being in a near consensus about the vicinity of final landfall in Florida Panhandle from Pensacola to PCB within 96 hours. EURO shifted eastward this run. Let's see if this consensus will hold firm, but we all know there will likely be a few more subtle changes with the runs as time progresses.
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Re:

#3730 Postby timmeister » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:46 am

meriland23 wrote::uarrow: don't pay attention to the strength, as hard as it is not to. Probably the most unpredictable thing to figure out when it comes to these things.


You're right. Isaac could make landfall as a Tropical Storm or have RI and make landfall as a Cat 3 or higher. Lots of warm water for Isaac once he enters the Gulf.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3731 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:56 am

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static/pics/gvar ... tsshcl.gif

GOM is doing fine... its plenty warm.. light colors off NW Florida is clouds were in way to get a data read... notice orange colors next to Destin, PNS... its plenty warm for a hurricane. :/
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3732 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:56 am

The beginning of the 18z GFS is the best for low land interaction and a perfect setup position for re-strengthening before the GOM. Seems too fast however. The latest GFS and Euro are nothing special. The Canadian is really crazy this last run, taking it really far west (usually it was well to the east) and bombing it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3733 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:59 am

For those who need a better picture... RED will help Hurricanes.. BLUE will hurt Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3734 Postby pricetag56 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:05 am

:uarrow: To put it simple the water is more than warm enough for a major hurricane
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#3735 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:51 am

well out of curiousity what degree is needed in the least to actually create a major hurricane.. well I guess in this case, especially one that happens quickly
Last edited by meriland23 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3736 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:51 am

If majority of models shown below pan out, Isaac will have cleared Cuba in less than 12 hours

Image
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#3737 Postby stephen23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:02 am

From sat image....Does this appear to be a little east of any of the models reight now? How much impact will that have with land interaction with Cuba?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3738 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:19 am

jinftl wrote:If majority of models shown below pan out, Isaac will have cleared Cuba in less than 12 hours

Image


coc seems like it its going to be on the right hand side of that spread
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Re:

#3739 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:20 am

stephen23 wrote:From sat image....Does this appear to be a little east of any of the models reight now? How much impact will that have with land interaction with Cuba?


yep, a little east and a little means alot in this particular case
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#3740 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:35 am

6Z NAM shifts right well over water near Andros at H24



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... ick024.gif
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