ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Portastorm]

Read and learn:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MM5_(weather_model)

[AJC3]

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Why NHC so conservative with winds...could be a little higher...anybody?

[AJC3]

I think the most pertinent "IF" is what happens if Ernesto intensifies significantly more than is currently forecast, which has historically occurred many times in this part of the basin. In that scenario, it would move more poleward than currently forecast, but perhaps not by a significant amount. Still, if there is a more poleward trend to be had, it would show itself in the next two on-hour (12Z, 00Z) model runs.

['CaneFreak]

The NHC is almost always conservative. There was only one or two high readings throughout the entire mission. It is getting stronger but is not there yet.

Why NHC so conservative with winds...could be a little higher...anybody?

[littlevince]

fascinating tropics, yesterday moribund, today creating an eyewall

[AJC3]

Anyone feel like taking over the recon obs? I'm starting to get a little tired, and I probably should get at least some sleep before I go into work the graveyard shift.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061541
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 42 20120806
153200 1702N 07929W 8433 01590 0130 +162 +134 133049 050 036 003 00
153230 1701N 07931W 8429 01591 0130 +159 +135 133050 051 037 005 00
153300 1700N 07932W 8433 01586 0130 +156 +137 130049 050 037 005 00
153330 1658N 07933W 8432 01590 0136 +149 +138 131050 050 038 010 00
153400 1657N 07934W 8423 01596 0144 +130 +130 132048 050 042 015 01
153430 1656N 07935W 8439 01578 0137 +140 +135 133045 051 039 013 00
153500 1655N 07937W 8442 01583 0142 +143 +133 124046 047 037 014 00
153530 1654N 07938W 8424 01596 0133 +150 +131 127048 049 034 006 00
153600 1653N 07939W 8429 01591 0134 +148 +129 127049 049 038 004 00
153630 1651N 07940W 8431 01588 0133 +150 +128 127049 049 037 004 00
153700 1650N 07941W 8430 01588 0131 +150 +128 126050 051 039 006 00
153730 1649N 07943W 8425 01592 0136 +143 +128 125050 051 039 006 00
153800 1648N 07944W 8440 01578 0140 +135 +129 121051 052 039 011 00
153830 1647N 07945W 8427 01589 0137 +139 +128 129053 054 039 011 00
153900 1646N 07946W 8425 01591 0131 +147 +126 127053 054 037 009 00
153930 1644N 07948W 8436 01580 0128 +152 +123 127050 052 036 007 00
154000 1643N 07949W 8425 01589 0125 +155 +121 129051 052 035 005 00
154030 1642N 07950W 8429 01584 0121 +159 +121 127050 052 031 004 00
154100 1641N 07951W 8432 01580 0125 +151 +122 130049 051 030 008 00
154130 1640N 07952W 8429 01580 0135 +130 +124 133047 049 033 010 00
$$
;

[ozonepete]

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...

The NHC now believes. It may be a hurricane by the next advisory. We need a NE quad sample...

Once again, the NW quad is the strongest which they found a 77kt FL wind.

That is not correct. Moving between WNW and NW would mean the "NE quad" is likely closer to Due N than NW. Let me help everyone understand. There have been three recon fixes. Typically that is good enough for a heading between the 1st and third point. In this case, the bearing is a ~305 degree movement. The "NE" quad is typically 45 degrees right of the bearing of the system. Therefore, the strongest winds are not necessarily in the NW quad from a recon perspective. Given the data above, approx 40% of the true NE quad would be in the recon NE quad. The NE quad would be centered at 350 degree (almost due N). I commend the vigor of your assertion. Unfortunately, your assertion is wrong.

You should always refer to them as left front, right front, left rear and right rear. Then you wouldn't get into this confusion. The right front quadrant is always the strongest in a non-stationary TC. See how easy?

[AJC3]

[littlevince]

Anyone feel like taking over the recon obs? I'm starting to get a little tired, and I probably should get at least some sleep before I go into work the graveyard shift.

Can take it for an hour or so

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061550
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 43 20120806
154200 1639N 07954W 8425 01585 0127 +144 +124 130048 050 032 010 00
154230 1638N 07955W 8436 01574 0117 +162 +122 129048 050 034 005 00
154300 1636N 07956W 8432 01579 0114 +165 +121 130047 049 034 005 00
154330 1635N 07957W 8425 01583 0112 +166 +123 131046 046 034 004 00
154400 1634N 07958W 8433 01574 0112 +161 +125 132047 048 035 005 00
154430 1633N 08000W 8429 01577 0117 +149 +128 128046 049 035 006 00
154500 1632N 08001W 8439 01567 0113 +158 +130 122047 048 037 005 00
154530 1631N 08002W 8427 01577 0108 +164 +132 121048 049 039 004 00
154600 1629N 08003W 8433 01569 0110 +158 +133 122050 051 038 004 00
154630 1628N 08005W 8428 01575 0112 +153 +134 122056 058 040 008 00
154700 1627N 08006W 8425 01574 0109 +152 +135 120057 058 040 009 00
154730 1626N 08007W 8433 01566 0109 +151 +135 119058 059 041 008 00
154800 1624N 08008W 8433 01563 0108 +148 +134 118057 058 040 008 00
154830 1623N 08010W 8430 01564 0109 +145 +132 120056 057 041 009 00
154900 1622N 08011W 8427 01564 0112 +134 +130 119060 061 043 009 00
154930 1621N 08012W 8433 01557 0103 +146 +128 121059 059 042 013 00
155000 1620N 08013W 8431 01558 0109 +133 +127 122059 059 043 013 00
155030 1618N 08015W 8428 01562 0110 +132 +125 126058 059 047 013 00
155100 1617N 08016W 8438 01546 0106 +133 +124 126059 060 051 014 00
155130 1616N 08017W 8430 01552 0091 +151 +123 127056 060 053 013 00
$$
;

[crimi481]

NWS -Tampa - menions..
ALSO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE
NATURE COAST SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED NORTH OF THERE

Q. If the Ridge axis moved futher north - will that have effect on Ernie track?
Thanks

[AJC3]

1000 thank yous!! Consider me asleep!

[jonj2040]

I can help with Google Earth graphics

['CaneFreak]

NWS -Tampa - menions..
ALSO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE
NATURE COAST SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED NORTH OF THERE

Q. If the Ridge axis moved futher north - will that have effect on Ernie track?
Thanks

I think the most pertinent "IF" is what happens if Ernesto intensifies significantly more than is currently forecast, which has historically occurred many times in this part of the basin. In that scenario, it would move more poleward than currently forecast, but perhaps not by a significant amount. Still, if there is a more poleward trend to be had, it would show itself in the next two on-hour (12Z, 00Z) model runs.

I think that was pretty much answered in the TCD, although I suppose there could be a little more poleward movement than forecast if Ernesto was to overachieve w/r/t the intensity forecast.

"ALTHOUGH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO."

[littlevince]

[Texashawk]

Now that is a good looking storm. I know we've all been fooled before... but it does seem to be jogging more NW and will probably miss Nic/Hon entirely. The question now is by how much and to what extent this (what I feel could be RI) event is disrupted.

[Texashawk]

And once it consolidates its western side and gets out of the dry air completely.... whoa.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061600
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 44 20120806
155200 1615N 08018W 8427 01556 0082 +162 +123 132056 058 055 007 00
155230 1614N 08019W 8433 01546 0080 +161 +125 127059 061 053 005 00
155300 1613N 08021W 8436 01544 0089 +147 +127 135056 060 049 006 00
155330 1612N 08022W 8433 01545 0081 +157 +129 141048 053 048 006 00
155400 1611N 08023W 8417 01557 0082 +151 +130 141048 051 052 004 00
155430 1609N 08024W 8430 01544 0079 +152 +132 147050 052 051 004 00
155500 1608N 08025W 8426 01543 0082 +141 +133 145050 051 049 005 00
155530 1607N 08026W 8437 01530 0087 +130 +130 139052 055 046 016 01
155600 1606N 08027W 8419 01546 0083 +130 +130 144056 057 051 020 05
155630 1605N 08029W 8436 01523 0071 +138 +129 152059 062 050 017 00
155700 1604N 08030W 8405 01551 0055 +153 +128 156061 062 048 009 00
155730 1604N 08031W 8440 01506 0045 +160 +128 164057 060 050 004 00
155800 1603N 08033W 8426 01516 0033 +167 +131 165054 055 052 002 00
155830 1603N 08035W 8425 01506 0020 +167 +134 167051 056 050 002 00
155900 1603N 08036W 8441 01476 0000 +177 +139 170041 049 047 003 00
155930 1602N 08038W 8418 01494 9987 +189 +143 171020 029 042 003 00
160000 1602N 08039W 8434 01474 9976 +203 +149 213015 018 030 000 00
160030 1601N 08041W 8439 01471 9970 +215 +155 291012 014 012 002 00
160100 1600N 08042W 8427 01489 9981 +208 +161 312018 024 012 003 00
160130 1600N 08044W 8426 01496 9988 +211 +167 302024 027 019 006 00
$$
;