ATL: ISAAC - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
Thanks for posting that comparison to the models Blownaway. Particularly the GFS and derivative models are going to be too fat left through 72 hours . Looks like all of them are too far left. Sure looks like PBC is in play for some rough weather. Also note the climo at this position. Have to see how and when the turn to the WNW occurs from given current position and motion.
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hugo '89, (Typhoons 1990 - Abe, Becky Dot, Ed, Flo, Gene, Hattie) Bertha 96, Fran 96, Bonnie, 98, Floyd '99 Isabel '03, Matthew '16 Florence '18
Hugo '89, (Typhoons 1990 - Abe, Becky Dot, Ed, Flo, Gene, Hattie) Bertha 96, Fran 96, Bonnie, 98, Floyd '99 Isabel '03, Matthew '16 Florence '18
-
TreasureIslandFLGal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1581
- Age: 57
- Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
- Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!
ATL: ISAAC - Models
06z HWRF bombs out off the central Fla Panhandle...down to 940mb
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est078.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est078.gif
0 likes
-
meriland23
- Category 5
- Posts: 1239
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm
ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145601
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 251239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (AL092012) 20120825 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120825 1200 120826 0000 120826 1200 120827 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 73.7W 22.0N 76.7W 23.8N 79.5W 25.0N 81.8W
BAMD 19.7N 73.7W 21.9N 76.0W 23.9N 78.3W 25.8N 80.4W
BAMM 19.7N 73.7W 21.8N 76.3W 23.7N 78.7W 25.3N 81.0W
LBAR 19.7N 73.7W 21.9N 75.6W 23.9N 77.9W 25.7N 80.2W
SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 50KTS 53KTS 61KTS 71KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120827 1200 120828 1200 120829 1200 120830 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.0N 84.1W 28.1N 86.7W 29.9N 87.3W 31.0N 86.3W
BAMD 27.5N 82.2W 30.9N 84.8W 34.3N 83.4W 37.7N 76.7W
BAMM 26.6N 83.0W 29.2N 86.1W 31.2N 86.9W 31.4N 86.2W
LBAR 27.2N 82.3W 29.8N 85.1W 32.2N 85.3W 33.5N 82.3W
SHIP 75KTS 87KTS 85KTS 73KTS
DSHP 75KTS 87KTS 48KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 73.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 72.0W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 70.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 180NM
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
ATL: ISAAC - Models
GFDL 06z goes down to 966mb with landfall on MS coast
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
Sabanic
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 65
- Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
- Location: Mobile, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Does he move due north from that point?
0 likes
"I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me" - Philippians 4:13
-
meriland23
- Category 5
- Posts: 1239
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sabanic wrote:Does he move due north from that point?meriland23 wrote:I want you guys to see this.....
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/5407/06zhwrf500mbhghtpmslnes.gif
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
NW, through west panhandle then into alabama at 90 hrs
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Sabanic
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 65
- Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
- Location: Mobile, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thanks Meriland
meriland23 wrote:Sabanic wrote:Does he move due north from that point?meriland23 wrote:I want you guys to see this.....
http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/5407/06zhwrf500mbhghtpmslnes.gif
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
NW, through west panhandle then into alabama at 90 hrs
0 likes
"I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me" - Philippians 4:13
-
meriland23
- Category 5
- Posts: 1239
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
meriland23
- Category 5
- Posts: 1239
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm
looks like it is about to hit northern haiti.. maybe I am looking at the wrong thing
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Yes Joe B. states (12z track models adjusted northeast about 40 miles from 06z in 1st 36 hrs) unquote.
0 likes
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
6z and 18z are like stepchildren of the model runs. The 12z run will have the G-IV data in it from the plane that landed this morning. Could be the NHC saw something in the raw data and decided to make some changes for the 5AM, but that's just speculation... This was the mission that went out @ 1:30am
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
-
Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Re:
SFLcane wrote:12z models are now south of south Florida through the straights.
Keep an eye out. Only the GFS is South.. Other models have shifted right for the 1st CONUS landfall..
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Keep non-model discussion in the discussion thread please. Thanks.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
MiamiensisWx
The preliminary NHC track at 1200Z has shifted farther north and is somewhat slower...it now shows landfall near Tavernier around 00Z Monday morning (8:00 p.m. local time Sunday night).
12Z models (note black OFCI track)
Also, the official intensity forecast now calls for just a strong TS (60 kt/70 mph) in the upper FL Keys, in accordance with the model guidance.
12Z intensity guidance
12Z models (note black OFCI track)
Also, the official intensity forecast now calls for just a strong TS (60 kt/70 mph) in the upper FL Keys, in accordance with the model guidance.
12Z intensity guidance
0 likes
-
jlauderdal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7184
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re:
easy does it...the coc has been east of the models since early this morning so you also need to look at what is actually verifying along with modeling, etc.SFLcane wrote:12z models are now south of south Florida through the straights.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests