ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the wind barbs, they missed the center by at least .2 degrees on the last 2

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Texashawk]

Yup, still looks like some dry air is being entrained. Once it gets out of that (if)... Katie bar the door, I think.

Winds are still pretty weak in the SW quad.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061630
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 47 20120806
162200 1514N 08125W 8431 01572 0093 +179 +165 287005 006 009 000 00
162230 1514N 08123W 8428 01574 0094 +176 +166 284006 006 009 000 00
162300 1514N 08121W 8430 01570 0089 +180 +166 281006 007 008 000 00
162330 1514N 08119W 8429 01570 0088 +182 +167 270007 007 008 000 00
162400 1514N 08118W 8432 01568 0090 +180 +167 267007 008 006 000 00
162430 1515N 08116W 8429 01570 0090 +180 +168 264007 008 008 000 00
162500 1515N 08114W 8431 01567 0089 +176 +168 264009 009 008 000 00
162530 1515N 08112W 8430 01568 0091 +172 +168 254009 009 010 000 00
162600 1515N 08111W 8431 01567 0091 +173 +167 248009 010 010 000 00
162630 1515N 08109W 8429 01568 0091 +175 +166 253010 010 011 000 00
162700 1515N 08107W 8432 01566 0090 +175 +165 255010 010 015 000 00
162730 1515N 08105W 8429 01567 0089 +175 +165 252011 012 011 002 00
162800 1516N 08103W 8430 01566 0087 +175 +164 249012 012 014 001 00
162830 1516N 08102W 8430 01564 0087 +175 +163 249013 013 015 002 00
162900 1516N 08100W 8430 01564 0087 +173 +162 252014 014 016 001 00
162930 1516N 08058W 8432 01563 0089 +170 +162 247014 014 017 001 00
163000 1516N 08056W 8429 01564 0090 +170 +161 239014 014 017 001 00
163030 1516N 08054W 8429 01564 0089 +170 +160 234014 015 015 002 00
163100 1516N 08053W 8432 01562 0089 +170 +159 232015 015 014 002 00
163130 1517N 08051W 8433 01562 0089 +170 +158 228016 016 015 002 00
$$
;

[Texashawk]

Hmmmmm..... eye forming?

[GCANE]

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html

[wxwatcher1999]

I wonder if it is really moving nw how much of a difference it's going to make on the model runs

[JGrin87]

certainly appears so.

[tolakram]

Latest

[jonj2040]

['CaneFreak]

Regardless of Ernesto's strengthening today, there doesn't appear to be anything to steer it northward. It should continue moving WNW and track across the southern Yucatan and southern BoC. Probably staying south of 20N.

I wonder if it is really moving nw how much of a difference it's going to make on the model runs

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061640
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 48 20120806
163200 1517N 08049W 8430 01563 0089 +169 +157 230017 017 017 002 00
163230 1517N 08047W 8429 01563 0089 +169 +157 227017 018 017 003 00
163300 1517N 08045W 8430 01562 0091 +165 +156 221020 021 019 003 00
163330 1517N 08044W 8432 01562 0088 +170 +154 218023 024 021 002 00
163400 1517N 08042W 8430 01562 0090 +169 +153 218024 025 019 002 00
163430 1517N 08040W 8430 01563 0091 +167 +153 219025 025 017 002 00
163500 1518N 08038W 8433 01562 0092 +168 +153 217024 025 019 001 00
163530 1518N 08036W 8426 01568 0091 +169 +153 212024 025 018 001 00
163600 1518N 08034W 8433 01561 0092 +169 +153 205025 025 017 001 00
163630 1518N 08033W 8429 01566 0092 +169 +154 202026 027 017 001 00
163700 1518N 08031W 8430 01561 0088 +170 +154 194028 028 016 002 00
163730 1518N 08029W 8432 01555 0082 +170 +155 191026 027 019 001 00
163800 1518N 08027W 8429 01557 0080 +169 +156 193026 026 020 001 00
163830 1519N 08026W 8430 01553 0077 +173 +156 197026 027 021 001 00
163900 1519N 08024W 8430 01561 0086 +170 +157 193030 032 021 002 00
163930 1519N 08022W 8433 01563 0090 +170 +157 192032 032 021 002 00
164000 1519N 08020W 8426 01570 0093 +169 +158 193032 032 024 000 00
164030 1519N 08019W 8430 01567 0094 +168 +159 194033 034 025 000 00
164100 1519N 08017W 8430 01567 0096 +165 +159 192033 034 027 001 00
164130 1519N 08015W 8433 01564 0096 +166 +160 194034 034 027 001 00
$$
;

[Blinhart]

A graphic of my best guess on direction, fitting a line over the first and last center measurements. Still not enough to really be confident of the direction.

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/784/zztemp.jpg

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With that map and he continues on that projected path you have drawn, a little more of a wobble North might cause Ernie to enter the GOM through the Channel.

[funster]

If powerful Ernesto keeps going NW then NHC will revise forecast as Ernesto could wind up in the GOM. The path revision still would not be nearly as dramatic as the Debby path change earlier this year

[jonj2040]

[Blinhart]

What kind of effect will the depth of the Caribbean have on Ernie, since he might go over the deepest parts of the Caribbean then the shallow parts that are just off of Central America. Hopefully the Whale Sharks that are down there are prepared (LMAO).

[pgoss11]

If powerful Ernesto keeps going NW then NHC will revise forecast as Ernesto could wind up in the GOM. The path revision still would not be nearly as dramatic as the Debby path change earlier this year

Like wx57 said...there is really nothing to pull this thing northwards. Hitting the Yucatan is inevitable. Might be further up the coast of the Yucatan but it should still hit Mexico before entering the Gulf or BOC.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061651
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 49 20120806
164200 1520N 08013W 8419 01575 0103 +150 +150 200033 035 041 008 01
164230 1520N 08011W 8433 01559 0102 +150 +150 191040 043 038 008 01
164300 1520N 08010W 8431 01561 0096 +158 +154 197040 042 042 008 00
164330 1520N 08008W 8438 01556 0102 +150 +149 191043 044 041 010 00
164400 1520N 08006W 8426 01568 0110 +140 +140 186039 044 039 012 01
164430 1520N 08004W 8433 01563 0111 +141 +141 185037 038 037 014 03
164500 1522N 08004W 8428 01568 0106 +149 +138 182034 036 /// /// 03
164530 1523N 08005W 8433 01560 0107 +144 +136 176032 033 041 011 00
164600 1524N 08006W 8432 01561 0110 +138 +135 172031 033 048 023 00
164630 1525N 08008W 8427 01567 0109 +140 +133 174031 033 053 028 00
164700 1527N 08009W 8430 01562 0109 +136 +131 175032 033 058 026 00
164730 1528N 08010W 8428 01564 0107 +141 +129 182037 038 054 018 00
164800 1529N 08012W 8444 01551 0108 +142 +129 201037 041 051 019 00
164830 1531N 08013W 8424 01569 0108 +144 +130 196022 038 053 022 00
164900 1532N 08014W 8427 01575 0108 +153 +131 196023 025 048 017 00
164930 1533N 08015W 8426 01572 0099 +165 +132 186030 031 029 006 00
165000 1534N 08017W 8432 01566 0097 +168 +134 182032 032 024 003 00
165030 1536N 08018W 8429 01567 0096 +165 +137 181031 032 025 003 00
165100 1537N 08019W 8433 01561 0095 +164 +140 185031 031 025 004 00
165130 1538N 08021W 8428 01566 0093 +164 +142 184030 031 026 003 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Convection waning at the moment.

AVN loop

[Sanibel]

Tops have really warmed. As CaneFreak noted the burst probably sucked more dry air into the center. That would explain the pressure leveling off.

[jonj2040]