ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MJS1]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Just saw the satellite pic of the "blob" that went thru Miami-Dade and environs..IF IF my memory doesn't fail me,I recall a pro-met in this site suggest that a TC will chase after the "blob"...it happened with Andrew..


**READ**READ**READ**


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html Just saw the satellite pic of the "blob" that went thru Miami-Dade and environs..IF IF my memory doesn't fail me,I recall a pro-met in this site suggest that a TC will chase after the "blob"...it happened with Andrew.. **READ**READ**READ** Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is now a separate thread regarding the disturbance in the Florida Straits.

[MJS1]

Isaac appears to be approaching the so called "Hurricane Alley" (between north Cuba and the Bahamas)..

[Nimbus]

Isaac looks like he is jogging north so will probably not spend much time over eastern Cuba. The core may get disrupted some but there is still a fair amount of time over warm SST's before reaching the Keys.

[MiamiensisWx]

Guantánamo radar seems to suggest the NNW movement has stopped and that the center is now moving close to 290°, or due NW. If that is the case, then the ridge has already caught Isaac and may allow a little more land interaction with E Cuba.

Of course this observation is not an official forecast.

[jinftl]

Isn't 290 deg wnw....due nw being 315

Guantánamo radar seems to suggest the NNW movement has stopped and that the center is now moving close to 290°, or due NW. If that is the case, then the ridge has already caught Isaac and may allow a little more land interaction with E Cuba.

Of course this observation is not an official forecast.

[SouthFLTropics]

Recon seems to tell a different story. Radar fixes from that distance are sketchy at best. I'll go with recon over radar and satellite any day.

[NDG]

Guantánamo radar seems to suggest the NNW movement has stopped and that the center is now moving close to 290°, or due NW. If that is the case, then the ridge has already caught Isaac and may allow a little more land interaction with E Cuba.

Of course this observation is not an official forecast.

The GFS is very consistent and persistent from at least the past 24 hrs that the H85 vorticity will only clip eastern tip of Cuba and get back over water as early as noon today, with such a strong vorticity all the up to at least H50, it would not take much for its core to get going, since it really did not have mover of a core before crossing Haiti.
I am very glad that the NHC put up Hurricane Warning for the FL Keys, they should had gone with the Hurricane warnings as far north as WPB, this is a large system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Joe B is talking about frictional effects causing Issac to wobble north away from Cuba.

Will be interesting to see if this pans out.

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 52/photo/1

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

Core temp profile is textbook at 2C

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208241940

[meriland23]

Does anyone remember Ike and its emmense size and multiple centers? It never really got its act together much if I remember, well not as much as assumed.. and it was due to its sheer size, you think that would be the case for isaac?

[baitism]

Based on Isaac's movements, I just can't see land having a major impact on it. Kid has a mind of his own.

[blp]

Entered the latest VDM into Google Earth and here is what I got. Looks to be in the gulf of gonave but towards the northern end. Won't be long before it clears Haiti.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CronkPSU]

@JimCantore

8am might find a slightly weaker #Isaac per RECON: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml … Off to Tampa

[wxman57]

Guantánamo radar seems to suggest the NNW movement has stopped and that the center is now moving close to 290°, or due NW. If that is the case, then the ridge has already caught Isaac and may allow a little more land interaction with E Cuba.

Of course this observation is not an official forecast.

Have a link to that radar? My old link no longer works.

[jinftl]

Moving more north than west last few hours

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 73.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[blp]

Guantánamo radar seems to suggest the NNW movement has stopped and that the center is now moving close to 290°, or due NW. If that is the case, then the ridge has already caught Isaac and may allow a little more land interaction with E Cuba.

Of course this observation is not an official forecast.

Have a link to that radar? My old link no longer works.

Here you go:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

[MiamiensisWx]

Guantánamo radar seems to suggest the NNW movement has stopped and that the center is now moving close to 290°, or due NW. If that is the case, then the ridge has already caught Isaac and may allow a little more land interaction with E Cuba.

Of course this observation is not an official forecast.

Have a link to that radar? My old link no longer works.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Anyway, after seeking clarification elsewhere, I do not think the radar is really reliable compared to the satellite and recon data we are currently getting.

[cpdaman]

Next 12 hrs of movement are crucial for isaac. In my experience storms seem to get suck'd /pulld wnw/nw toward ne cuban coast in isaac position. DISCLAIIMER I have no sound met reasoning for this statement and I'm merely a hobbyist guessing

[meriland23]

NHC says 60mph now at 14 mph NW

[CronkPSU]

pretty much split the uprights between Haiti and Cuba....almost North of Cuba's tip already

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... eight=null