ATL: ISAAC - Models

[deltadog03]

A JOG west? and weaken in 6 hours Jevo?

Heh old run... darn cookies

Ah ok...thanks! I was like what the heck...haha

[pgoss11]

12z HWRF + 66 (I think some would have preferred the old run)

Maybe a Big Bend hit?

[deltadog03]

Intensity seems unrealistic for this track IMO.

Agreed!

[opticsguy]

If the 12Z GFS pans out, Dallas might get some nights in the 60s from N flow on the backside. No rain, though.

[deltadog03]

Def. further East than the op GFS ....Looks Waaaay too strong though.

[Wx_Warrior]

72h



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[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS run would be great for a drought buster for MS valley but have horrible impacts for SE LA, MS, AL and western FL panhandle. 12z Euro can't come soon enough!

[Ivanhater]

Def. further East than the op GFS ....Looks Waaaay too strong though.

I believe Wxman57 lumps the HWRF in with the Nam as far as horrible models.

[cheezyWXguy]

Def. further East than the op GFS ....Looks Waaaay too strong though.

Yeah, even if that intensity were attainable in the gulf, there's no way it could do it with that kind of proximity to land

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC not much better.

[Jevo]

Statistically, the HWRF model is one of the worst performing models. However, we can discuss this further when things slow down.

I have no argument with you on that.. Believe me, I've been rooting for the poor fella for years now. But I wouldn't necessarily discount a model based on it's past if it's handling the current system pretty well...

That being said.... It looks like someone poured their coffee in the server again

12z HWRF +72

[meriland23]

so...gfs pushed west in the 12z and this east? come onnnnnn

[deltadog03]

Def. further East than the op GFS ....Looks Waaaay too strong though.

I believe Wxman57 lumps the HWRF in with the Nam as far as horrible models.

Oh, I do too....

[pgoss11]

so...gfs pushed west in the 12z and this east? come onnnnnn

That's what keeps us up all night losing sleep Meriland

[Jevo]

12z HWRF +78

[USTropics]

Regardless of the iffy HWRF model run, the most important part I take away is it joins the 12z runs of the GFDL, GFS, and NAM in regards to a stronger system traversing the GOM. Euro up next.

[ROCK]

A reminder that the HWRF has a horrible track record for those who are not familiar with it.

I would say the the HWRF has performed better than the Euro with this storm so far...

This was the solution 3 days ago... Seems to have nailed it so far

You are kidding right? The HWRF outperforming the EURO.....yeah ok...

[SouthDadeFish]

HWRF had some improvements in the offseason and has performed a little better I thought, such as running on a 3 km inner nest. Still seems like a pretty unrealistic run in terms of intensity.

[Jag95]

Strength looks way overdone on that one considering the proximity to land and some of the least prime waters of the Gulf. What's that, a borderline cat 4 in appy bay? When's that last time that happened?

I like the track though. Let's keep it close to land. It looks to be having trouble with it.

[Aric Dunn]

that would be a terrible scenario for tampa.