ATL: ISAAC - Models

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deltadog03
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#3981 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:12 pm

HR84 moving north, STRONG and getting closer to Panama City Beach/Destin....This run is further E
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Re:

#3982 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:13 pm

deltadog03 wrote:HR84 moving north, STRONG and getting closer to Panama City Beach/Destin....This run is further E


what mb?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3983 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:13 pm

Not much movement from the models in the overall picture.

12z GFS into Mobile
12z Euro into Destin

That zone continues to be the target
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Re:

#3984 Postby micktooth » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:14 pm

meriland23 wrote:this is almost 20mb stronger than last run at its strongest point..



Thanks for posting the graphics. What strength does the 20mb drop equate to?
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#3985 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:14 pm

Looks like Landfall is near HR90 near PCB....Weakness is Much bigger this run, it appears. Strong looking at Landfall...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3986 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:15 pm

From cat 1 last run to cat 2-3
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Re: Re:

#3987 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:15 pm

meriland23 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:HR84 moving north, STRONG and getting closer to Panama City Beach/Destin....This run is further E


what mb?


Hard to tell at the maps that I get this from...I will have to wait until it shows on Plymouth State.
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Re:

#3988 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:16 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Looks like Landfall is near HR90 near PCB....Weakness is Much bigger this run, it appears. Strong looking at Landfall...


Would you at all be able to print screen or save pic and show us 84 and 90? Mine goes in incriments of 24 hrs, it will be weak and over land by then..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3989 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:17 pm

euro hr 96

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#3990 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:18 pm

Is this the first time where the EURO is actually showing landfall EAST of where the GFS makes landfall?
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#3991 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:19 pm

And again we now have the GFDL, HWRF, NAM, GFS, and the ECMWF showing a much stronger system in the 12z model runs compared to the 00z. Not a good trend to be seeing this close to landfall.
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Re: Re:

#3992 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:19 pm

meriland23 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Looks like Landfall is near HR90 near PCB....Weakness is Much bigger this run, it appears. Strong looking at Landfall...


Would you at all be able to print screen or save pic and show us 84 and 90? Mine goes in incriments of 24 hrs, it will be weak and over land by then..


I wish I could, but I get them through WSI *my weather vendor from my tv station* and I am sure I would get into trouble...Im sorry!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3993 Postby GCRain » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:20 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
GCRain wrote:How many versions of these tropical models are there? For example,FSU's GFS model has Isaac making landfall much further than Wunderground's GFS model.Why such a big discrepancy?

Meant to say much further west.


Wunderground has not updated yet.



Yep,see that now.Thanks.
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Re: Re:

#3994 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:21 pm

meriland23 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Looks like Landfall is near HR90 near PCB....Weakness is Much bigger this run, it appears. Strong looking at Landfall...


Would you at all be able to print screen or save pic and show us 84 and 90? Mine goes in incriments of 24 hrs, it will be weak and over land by then..


Government and private agencies purchase the EMCWF model output data and most do not allow publication. The public data, which is provided in increments of 24 hours, is freely distributed.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3995 Postby swbamacane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:22 pm

Well looks like the GFS is now the outlier!!! Hmmmm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3996 Postby duris » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:23 pm

Recent tweets from New Orleans station: “@wwltvweather: Models starting at wrong spot for #Isaac.  Not initializing well. http://t.co/ovDDfbxW” and “@wwltvweather: Notice how the lines that bring it to us direct start on land, but thats not where the center is! http://t.co/CZHJI00Y”. FWIW.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3997 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:24 pm

GFS Ensembles

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#3998 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:25 pm

its landfall Apalachicola..

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#3999 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:27 pm

Someone needs to reference Jevo's picture from a few days ago on the ECMWF going one way the GFS the other.
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Re:

#4000 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its landfall Apalachicola..

Image

I am sensing an overall slight shift to the right...especially if there is a bigger weakness there.
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