ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

I'm sort of at a loss with NHC over this.

What do you mean by that?

That they're not as bullish or seem to be willing to investigate with Recon with it this close to the mainland.

[Dean4Storms]

It certainly looks impressive!

[CrazyC83]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/

Dewpoints just to the northwest are in the 30s and 40s away from the immediate coast.

[RL3AO]

That they're not as bullish or seem to be willing to investigate with Recon with it this close to the mainland.

If it maintains or improves the next STWO will be much more aggressive. As for recon, they aren't really available on the snap of the fingers.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/

Likewise, on the SC coast, dewpoints are inland in the 40s, and in the low to mid 50s on the immediate coast.

[Aric Dunn]

its not frontal as such any more. but it is imbedded in a much larger baroclinic system which is why the strong shear to its south is not affecting it right now.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

The 12z Surface Analysis has it moving SW.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[CrazyC83]

Frying Pan Shoals buoy: 29 kt (sustaining period?)

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/41013.html

[Aric Dunn]

There is a ship report just to the NE of the center reporting 40mph sustained and pressure of 29.77in

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z Surface Analysis has it moving SW.

[img]http://img861.imageshack.us/img861/4089/watllatest.gif[img]

Uploaded with imageshack.us

yeah the nature of the system would tend to lead to large cyclonic loops. and most of the models head it sw then loops its back north in 48 hours or so .

[brunota2003]

This buoy has winds of 29.1 knots, with gusts up to 35.0 knots:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

One thing that will be interesting is whether or not convection sustains itself. The convection over the center blew up during DMIN...but now we are steadily moving toward DMAX, which suppresses convection. Will the convection survive to fight another night?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Impressive disturbance..if its current appearance stays until the next STWO (anybody want to take a guess at what time that will be?) I have a feeling development chances will be much higher.

Needs to acquire at least a partially warm core though. It is completely cold core at this time.

[RL3AO]

Whats going against this being subtropical right now outside of sustained connection?

[Aric Dunn]

Whats going against this being subtropical right now outside of sustained connection?

nothing I can tell. just need to persist for another 12 hour or so.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Whats going against this being subtropical right now outside of sustained connection?

It is cold core.

Needs to sustain convection through the afternoon hours...

[brunota2003]

Frying Pan Shoals buoy: 29 kt (sustaining period?)

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/41013.html

I'm pretty sure it is 10 minutes. Usually there is a section that reports the highest 1 minute sustained wind (don't see it for that buoy, at least not for this update).

[cycloneye]

Whats going against this being subtropical right now outside of sustained connection?

It is cold core.

Needs to sustain convection through the afternoon hours...

Cold core now.

[brunota2003]

CrazyC83

Buoy 41013 is a moored buoy, and per NDBC an 8 minute period is used for moored buoys:

Sensors that are installed on board moored buoys and at C-MAN sites generally do not measure and record data for the entire hour. Continuously recording data drastically increases power consumption. Therefore, for most NDBC-measured environmental data, with spectral wave measurements and continuous winds being exceptions, an eight-minute period is used for data collected by sensors on board moored buoys and a two-minute acquisition period is used for data collected by sensors at C-MAN sites.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the Ship report.

[CrazyC83]

Frying Pan Shoals buoy: 29 kt (sustaining period?)

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/41013.html

I'm pretty sure it is 10 minutes. Usually there is a section that reports the highest 1 minute sustained wind (don't see it for that buoy, at least not for this update).

If that is 10-min sustained, that would translate back to 32 kt, which would probably support a 35 kt intensity assuming the strongest winds are not sampled.