ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Just heard on the TWC that they are starting to believe in the West shift as the GFS is showing it more often, they are just waiting on the Windshield Wiping to stop to pull the trigger. Problem with that we are less than 5 days from a Northern GoM landfall. Sounds like everyone is in agreement with the 2 day track but everyone is worried with the the 3 - 5 day track.

I'm thinking that the reason the track looks like it is way North is because they think the MLC will become the area with the dominant LLC and that will be the area.

[MJS1]

Has any mention of storm surge been brought up?

According to a national news station, 7 feet above normal on the W coast of Florida...no mention Re: east coast

[WeatherGuesser]

Storm Surge Maps

Probabilities

Exceedance

[tolakram]

liv eloop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Appears as if center wobbled due north. Convection appears to be building north of Cuba.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For those making predictions, I suggest patience is key. Isaac will look horrible until Cuba crossing is complete, then we'll have a better idea of what will happen based on how fast Isaac recovers.

[WeatherGuesser]

News reports starting to hit the wires about Haiti, but not seeing many details yet.

[Meteorcane]

I am not seeing how this thing will spend much time over Cuba based on current position/trajectory.

[Aric Dunn]

liv eloop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Appears as if center wobbled due north. Convection appears to be building north of Cuba.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For those making predictions, I suggest patience is key. Isaac will look horrible until Cuba crossing is complete, then we'll have a better idea of what will happen based on how fast Isaac recovers.

yeah its going to try and take the path of least resistance. thought convection is very shallow right now. needs time over water. this happens alot with system passing through the channel the moisture flow is cut off by the mountains of hispaniola.. its to get farther away

[MJS1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, yes, and yes...I have never really deviated from the NHC in regard to the track, but rather the intensity, which I think will be much weaker than anticipated. Usually, in the rare event that the professionals are wrong, they usually err on the high side.

The Hurricane Center has admitted they're much better at predicting the track of a TC than their intensity...and yes, I agree that it's better to err on the high side than the low..unless they "cry wolf" one too many times and the public at large could become immune to an imminent danger...let's hope that never happens..

[orion]

I'm also thinking as a few others have said that the center my reform closer to where the mid level circulation is, which would mean a jump to the north east. I think it was Aric who mentioned this earlier, along with the possible effects from the vorticity south/south east of Florida. Will be interesting to see what happens when they move closer. Here are images for 1445 UTC and 1555 UTC showing the vorticity:





At this point I think either of these would just be a short term change to the N and Isaac will continue on a basically NW course.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest

16:10Z, 12:10 EDT

[pgoss11]

Looks beat up right now

[meriland23]

is that center between the north island and ne cuba? I cant tell

[pgoss11]

is that center over the north island and ne cuba? I cant tell

Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I think the low level center is on land and the MLC is displaced to the NE of that. Maybe the experts could answer better than me

[meriland23]

I need to watch a fast loop in order to tell myself lol

[tolakram]

is that center between the north island and ne cuba? I cant tell

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

I've got the center just of the Cuban Coast at close to 20.8N 74.8W

[Patrick99]

I see a very broad general center around the tip of cuba but nothing I think I could pinpoint an exact location with.

[Dean4Storms]

More up to date and better resolution here. Scroll down the the 1km Floater....You can left click to zoom!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp


It's right along the NHC forecast points track.

[Jevo]

Looks like the NHC is going to start doing video casts at the top of each hour

Tweet from Dr. Knabb

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
NHC #Isaac videocasts - same as top-of-hour TV updates - avail. via our website http://ow.ly/1OsJ0n - see you in 15 mins.

[Aric Dunn]

is that center between the north island and ne cuba? I cant tell

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[img]http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/2616/zztempg.jpg[/ig]

it appears just off shore now. slight reform happening not as far offshore as the mlc though.