ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Any predictions on the strength at the next advisory? I'm going with 50 MPH. It definately doesn't look as good when it was 60 mph.....

[tolakram]

I've got the center just of the Cuban Coast at close to 20.8N 74.8W

Use this java loop, much higher res and the latest image. I see west moving clouds inland still, which is why I placed the center inland.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Hurricane Alexis]

is that center between the north island and ne cuba? I cant tell

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/2616/zztempg.jpg

it appears just off shore now. slight reform happening not as far offshore as the mlc though.

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg201/sc ... es=landing

So it will still be disrupted by cuba?

[cheezyWXguy]

is that center between the north island and ne cuba? I cant tell

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/2616/zztempg.jpg[/img]

I was thinking slightly north of there, but it really doesnt matter at this point. The circulation has definitely taken some damage from land, although remains well intact enough that doubt itll take much reorganizing for it to start strengthening once fully offshore. Unless it decides to jog westward again, it will likely only be on land for another couple hours at most, and the immediate NE quad seems to be trying to bubble up some weak convection, although the current land interaction is likely hindering it.

[Bgator]

It looks like the center is about to emerge from the Cuban coastline from the 1KM floater loop.

[Dean4Storms]

I've got the center just of the Cuban Coast at close to 20.8N 74.8W

Use this java loop, much higher res and the latest image. I see west moving clouds inland still, which is why I placed the center inland.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Check the 1km I just posted and left click to zoom in, you'll see the very tight rotation of the center near 20.8/74.8

I think we are seeing the same thing. Looks like it's just offshore too me though.

[meriland23]

I was watching a fast loop, first few frames showed a visible eye going NW over NW haiti before the eye went.. it took me a couple of times to follow it to the last frame to try and estimate position look like it is north of cuba and south of the island to the north of cuba. IMO

[Mouton]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Up in the north east tip of Florida, this does not have the feeling of an approaching storm: barometer is holding steady over 30 inches, the air is and has been relatively dry for the past few evenings and it is about 82 degrees with nightime readings in the high 60s the past few nights.

My storm projection has not waivered since monday...near key west, into the gulf and in the area around appolachicola. I see nothing that changes my view about that.

This storm circulation is very large, so picking an exact spot of landing is not as important as realizing the tropical force winds extend to the east quite a way. So, don't keep your eye on the donut hole, keep your eye on the donut itself.

I notice the NHC has pumped up the potential storm force to cat 2. Frankly I think cat 3 is possible but I have never been good at guessing those levels. Off our atlantic coast btw, sea temps are unusually low, at least lower than normal by about 3 degrees F.

All of the above IMO of course and I am not any sort of professonal weather person.

[tolakram]

More up to date and better resolution here. Scroll down the the 1km Floater....You can left click to zoom!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp


It's right along the NHC forecast points track.

Ah, I think you are correct, as well as Aric. It does appear to be emerging. I dislike the movement of this floater though, it might not be tracking the center correctly so it can be deceiving.

[cheezyWXguy]

Aric, I'm not sure that reformation as far northeast as you were mentioning really matters at this point. It looks to me like the MLC is in about as good of shape as the LLC right now, fairly well intact but lacking a definite and discernible center. It seems like no matter what process it decides to take to reorganize, they should all have the same end result at about the same time.

[psyclone]

Any predictions on the strength at the next advisory? I'm going with 50 MPH. It definately doesn't look as good when it was 60 mph.....

It's got to rebuild which will take a long time. i'm not writing it off but i can't get concerned when it looks like this either. the storm took so long to organize to begin with i'm definitely not sold on rapid intensification. certainly can't rule it out but for me, the burden of proof is on the storm to show us the money.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

ok back to the discussion

[USTropics]

Getting reports of 3 casualties in Haiti from TS Isaac.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120825/N ... nav%7Chead

[jinftl]

If the storm is following the forecast track and is slowly emerging back into the water over the next several hours, it may take another 6+ hours after that for the storm to 'shake itself off' and think about intensifying. If you did want to pick an area of the Atlantic to attempt to reintensify, the Straits of Florida are a pretty good spot to embark on that - 88-90 deg water, high TCHP, forecast for lower shear...sounds do-able by tomorrow.

Any predictions on the strength at the next advisory? I'm going with 50 MPH. It definately doesn't look as good when it was 60 mph.....

It's got to rebuild which will take a long time. i'm not writing it off but i can't get concerned when it looks like this either. the storm took so long to organize to begin with i'm definitely not sold on rapid intensification. certainly can't rule it out but for me, the burden of proof is on the storm to show us the money.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

If the storm is following the forecast track and is slowly emerging back into the water over the next several hours, it may take another 6+ hours after that for the storm to 'shake itself off' and think about intensifying. If you did want to pick an area of the Atlantic to attempt to reintensify, the Straits of Florida are a pretty good spot to embark on that - 88-90 deg water, high TCHP, forecast for lower shear...sounds do-able by tomorrow.

Any predictions on the strength at the next advisory? I'm going with 50 MPH. It definately doesn't look as good when it was 60 mph.....

It's got to rebuild which will take a long time. i'm not writing it off but i can't get concerned when it looks like this either. the storm took so long to organize to begin with i'm definitely not sold on rapid intensification. certainly can't rule it out but for me, the burden of proof is on the storm to show us the money.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It doesn't seem to be wasting much time, convection is popping close to the center in the portions of the circulation that are offshore. Its trying to set up an inflow channel between Haiti and Cuba atm.

[fci]

So it will still be disrupted by cuba?

Absolutely.
It's not just exactly where the center crosses but the effects on the circulation.

[GCANE]

Question/request for G-Cane.. can you keep us up to date on current RI trends and possibility of further strengthening as he moves away from Cuba toward the Keys?

Will do JPmia

[tolakram]

Big 30 frame live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Speed it up for an idea of the current motion. Center looks to be just north of Cuba now.

[ObsessedMiami]

Woo boo. Miami Dade schools closed for Monday

[pgoss11]

Big 30 frame live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Speed it up for an idea of the current motion. Center looks to be just north of Cuba now.

Does it appear to be moving NNW? It's hard to tell, but it looks that way to me.