ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Woo boo. Miami Dade schools closed for Monday

Miami will probably still have some gusty south wind in Monday morning - 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts. Worst conditions would be Sunday evening as the center passes to the southwest.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Woo boo. Miami Dade schools closed for Monday

Miami will probably still have some gusty south wind in Monday morning - 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts. Worst conditions would be Sunday evening as the center passes to the southwest.

What winds do you expect wxman57 in miami during the worst of the storm?

[SFLcane]

Woo boo. Miami Dade schools closed for Monday

Miami will probably still have some gusty south wind in Monday morning - 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts. Worst conditions would be Sunday evening as the center passes to the southwest.

wxman57 do you think that hurricane watch for miami dade will be upgraded to hurricane warning in time. Also what are they worst conditions miami might see on sunday? thanks

[Aric Dunn]

well its offshore about 12 hours early.

[Aric Dunn]

there is the center.

[Hurricane Alexis]

well its offshore about 12 hours early.

But won't it brush the cuban coast for quite some time?

[meriland23]

there is the center.

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg15/sca ... es=landing

looks like hell still lol

[CronkPSU]

2:00 pm update...still 60 mph winds, NW at 17 1000mb

[Hurricane Andrew]

Man, this thing has been revaged. Let's see if convection starts bursting in the next 3-6 hours.

[wxman57]

What winds do you expect wxman57 in miami during the worst of the storm?

There is possible and most likely, as we're quite uncertain as to the size and orientation of Isaac's wind field as it passes, as well as how far from Miami it'll pass. Let's say it remains a rather disorganized storm that may have a few pockets of hurricane winds, and it passes through the central Keys. Then most likely Miami would see sustained 1-min winds up to 40-50 mph with gusts of 60-70 mph on the beaches. A bit less inland. If Isaac is weaker, then winds would be less tomorrow night.

If Isaac strikes the southern tip of the peninsula or the northern Keys, then Miami would likely see sustained 1-min winds up to 55-65 mph with gusts 75-85 mph. Could not rule out a few spots on the beach seeing brief sustained winds of 70-75 mph in that case.

Given Isaac's current status but with the prediction it will reach near hurricane strength as it passes, I would forecast peak winds in Miami of 35-45 mph with gusts 55-65 mph. Low-end TS winds, generally. Enough to cause brief power outages but no major damage.

Of course, if Isaac remains a disorganized mess as it passes then Miami's winds will be lower.

[Aric Dunn]

well its offshore about 12 hours early.

But won't it brush the cuban coast for quite some time?

yes but this will give it more time to organize its motion should slowly get farther away. once the west wind son the south side are un impeded it would be able to strengthen

[Steve H.]

Looks like Isaac is quickly building convection to the NE quad over water. If this trend continues, it wouldn't surprise me to see him ramp quickly back up. All depends how much the center moves off of Cuba to aviod dry air entrainment from the Cuban mountains.

[wxman57]

Looks like Isaac is quickly building convection to the NE quad over water. If this trend continues, it wouldn't surprise me to see him ramp quickly back up. All depends how much the center moves off of Cuba to aviod dry air entrainment from the Cuban mountains.

I think that Isaac has shown that it doesn't need to be over or near land to entrain dry air. Dry air has been a problem since it formed. Question is, does the unfavorable atmosphere continue north of Cuba and across the Gulf?

[Jag95]

Looks like Isaac is quickly building convection to the NE quad over water. If this trend continues, it wouldn't surprise me to see him ramp quickly back up. All depends how much the center moves off of Cuba to aviod dry air entrainment from the Cuban mountains.

I agree, looks like he'll bounce back pretty quickly once that convection wraps back around...which it's doing.

[meriland23]

Looks like Isaac is quickly building convection to the NE quad over water. If this trend continues, it wouldn't surprise me to see him ramp quickly back up. All depends how much the center moves off of Cuba to aviod dry air entrainment from the Cuban mountains.

I think that Isaac has shown that it doesn't need to be over or near land to entrain dry air. Dry air has been a problem since it formed. Question is, does the unfavorable atmosphere continue north of Cuba and across the Gulf?

is there a map on that?

[jinftl]

All about the heading going forward for Miami...Isaac is due southeast of Miami now (downtown Miami is approx 25.8N 80.3W). Isaac is 5 deg south and 5 deg east right now. The 315 heading is a bullseye for a Miami-Dade landfall. If we see the heading turn to 300 or 305, that is a track towards the Middle Keys. Anything like 290 or 295 is lower Keys or south.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...

[wxman57]

Looks like Isaac is quickly building convection to the NE quad over water. If this trend continues, it wouldn't surprise me to see him ramp quickly back up. All depends how much the center moves off of Cuba to aviod dry air entrainment from the Cuban mountains.

I think that Isaac has shown that it doesn't need to be over or near land to entrain dry air. Dry air has been a problem since it formed. Question is, does the unfavorable atmosphere continue north of Cuba and across the Gulf?

is there a map on that?

Unfortunately, not really. The G-IV just took off for another round of dropsondes in its path. They should provide a good sampling of the atmosphere in advance of Isaac for this evening's models.

[SapphireSea]

I wonder about that. Before this upper trough came through, I saw soundings very stable across S. FL except near WPB and the lake. We had SAL and Cap across the board. I suspect that the environment around cuba and the straights are still fairly stable until you get close to the Penninsula.

[crimi481]

Seems like that ULL to N.W. of Isaac - shredding its N.W. Quad - suckin in some of its energy - then ULL sending energy up to that Growing storm in VA?
Really strange stuff - no? That ULL is unexpected player
Seen here:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[Aric Dunn]

you can see the center fully offshore now and becoming better defined pretty quick now. seems its just slightly more northerly component than most of the models right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html