ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pgoss11]

5PM UPDATE OUT

Code: Select all

5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 21.3°N 76.0°W
Moving: NW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Wow..it sure is flying!

[hiflyer]

It's not as if they're carrying seal team 6 in the back.

They're not??

So Isaac has blown over Haiti and gotten offshore Cuba (somewhat) quicker than thought yesterday. Does make the next 12 hrs intriguing if the past is any clue to the future. For SoFLA KEYW and KMTH are closing....though KMIA and KFLL are not as yet...but some carriers electing to not keep aircraft overnight at those terminals. The three southernmost counties in Florida have already closed schools Monday.

Wish wasn't stuck up in DC...sigh Jim.

[LowndesCoFire]

A tiny bit right at landfall with this advisory with next forecast point in SE AL vs. SC AL?

[deltadog03]

Nothing really changed with the new track

[robbielyn]

Nothing really changed with the new track

Cone changed. Took pinellas county pasco hernando citrus counties out of the cone now in adjacent waters only. Also further south from Lee county northward.

[Blinhart]

And a major speed up from 2pm Mon to 2pm Tues.

[dizzyfish]

Nothing really changed with the new track

Cone changed. Took pinellas county pasco hernando citrus counties out of the cone now in adjacent waters only.

I noticed that. They haven't extended any watches this far north (Pasco) either. Wonder if they will later.

[fsusurfer]

looks more like Panama City hit than Destin with the latest adv.

[tolakram]

Please remember the cone is a fixed size circle around a forecast point, with each size being determined by historical statistical forecast errors at that forecast point. This is then smoothed to make the "cone" on the forecast map.

['CaneFreak]

WELL STATED by Mr. Jack Beven...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

[LowndesCoFire]

Nothing really changed with the new track

Cone changed. Took pinellas county pasco hernando citrus counties out of the cone now in adjacent waters only.

I noticed that. They haven't extended any watches this far north (Pasco) either. Wonder if they will later.

Interesting that the watches are inland to your East and for the adjacent waters to your West. Im sure that this will change with time.

[tolakram]

Latest NHC forecast graphic

[LowndesCoFire]

WELL STATED by Mr. Jack Beven...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

And would "significantly stronger" = more northward component down the road (poleward)?

[LowndesCoFire]

looks more like Panama City hit than Destin with the latest adv.

Yes, but worried here in South GA about the forecasted large envelope of TS winds 180+ miles NE of center from what Ive been hearing.

[MGC]

Nice blowup of convection in Isaac's north side...should start to really intensify as the storm pulls away from Cuba....I think Isaac has a good shot at being a hurricane by the time it nears south Florida.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[robbielyn]

Nothing really changed with the new track

Cone changed. Took pinellas county pasco hernando citrus counties out of the cone now in adjacent waters only.

I noticed that. They haven't extended any watches this far north (Pasco) either. Wonder if they will later.

Yes they have. We are under ts watch up to suwanee river.

[LowndesCoFire]

Speaking in terms of inland watch / warnings I see they are lacking in the West Central counties in FL, but they are present around Orlando, Kissimme, Daytona?

[Pearl River]

It appears that the NHC is still a little uncertain where landfall will occur, other than North G.O.M.

AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR
ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR
IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PART
OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

[Time_Zone]

This is a bit of a dumb question but....which place(s) would be the most suseceptible and vulnerable to a hurricane currently? Regarding Isaac's projected track.

Basically where is the "worst case scenario" thats within reason for Isaac to eventually end up making landfall once in the GOM.

['CaneFreak]

In the shorter term as it is crossing over into the GOM? Yes...in the longer term? No. I think this thing is going to skirt approximately half of the western FL peninsula coastline and then the ridge is going to strengthen to the north of this thing and push it west to west-northwest from there...most likely landfall point? Probably somewhere between Gulf Shores, AL and Pascagula MS at between 72 and 84 hours from now...probably as a strong category 3 or a weak category 4...this would put Tampa Bay, Mobile Bay, and New Orleans under 20 feet or more of water...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

WELL STATED by Mr. Jack Beven...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

And would "significantly stronger" = more northward component down the road (poleward)?