ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_ensmodel.html


ensembles almost have Florida safe!!!

You do realize that the Florida Keys are part of Florida right??? Everyone seems to be forgetting that this is going to make it's first US landfall within the next day.

SFT

[thatwhichisnt]

Latest 00Z guidance is tightly clustered on NOLA!

Link?

[BigB0882]

Wow, that says that even if things change somewhat that the GFS still thinks it is going West of Florida. Lets you know that it is less likely to be a fluke. Unless the new data going into the 0z is a big surprise then I kind of doubt my earlier thought that it would go back East at 0z.

ETA: Actually, it might go back East some but I mean it wont go back to FL. The Operational is a little left of most of the ensembles but there are quite a few in line with it so I don't think it is completely out to lunch.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest 00Z guidance is tightly clustered on NOLA!

Link?

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/4677/aal092012082600trackear.png

[hurricanedude]

safe? dont think so that would just put them on the right side of tge storm....higher surge and winds....

[Dean4Storms]

RPM Model........

http://twitpic.com/anq58o/full

[BigB0882]

That NorthEast turn is all but gone at the end.

I am going to the store in a few minutes for a few things. No reason to get crazy as far inland as I am. Oh, and since I am going to the store you can bet the models will drastically change at 0z. You are welcome Louisiana residents, I am single handedly sparing us all.

[ROCK]

I dont think they are done shifting either.....you see some of ther GFS ensembles drifting west after landfall....EURO was sniffing this a few runs ago.....any variation in timing could result another west shift.....SW LA IMO is in play...

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[Stormlover2012]

lets say if the models do shift towards new orleans tonight do yall think we could see a more west shift for the next couple of days thoughts??

[psyclone]

that is quite a dramatic shift westward in the models. is this primarily a result of the storm's brisk forward speed or are there some other factors at work here? naturally i'm looking forward to the 11pm advisory and discussion in light of this big shift.

[Stormlover2012]

I think its all about that high in colorado shifting to the south east am i right?

[BigB0882]

Never heard of the RPM model. What is that and how reliable is it, typically?

[CrazyC83]

In a nutshell, everyone from Louisiana to Florida should be preparing hard for this.

[ROCK]

In a nutshell, everyone from Louisiana to Florida should be preparing hard for this.

yep.....no need to be complacent....everyone should know the drilll...if they dont ask a neighbor...

[rainstorm]

im fairly confident this will slow down at some point before landfall.

[StormGuy]

The 0z NAM is rolling now. Maybe this was brought up earlier, but what exactly happened with the 18z run? It turned Isaac into almost nothing in the Gulf. Just curious if it was just a bad run or something?

[BigB0882]

Again, just use the NAM for synoptics. It is horrible with TC movement.

[caneman]

It's because the storm is moving quicker. Let see if it slows down though.

[BigB0882]

It's because the storm is moving quicker. Let see if it slows down though.

What is?

[ROCK]

NAM 6hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M