yeah, I was kinda wondering the same thing..... Seems I've heard it takes 72 hours to evacuate the city???Hurricane Cheese wrote:My question...will the NHC address this in the 11 pm discussion. When will they start to sound a larger alarm for LA...?
ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Re: Re:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
one thing that is scary about the nam, it has been east the whole entire time while other models keep shifting west, it seems like its a tad behind and then finally catches up to them like a day before landfall
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0z NAM +78
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
In the 10PM discussion, once again, the NHC doesn't have much confidence in their landfall projection. This is going to make for a LONG nex 3 days for the entire GC
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Re:
galaxy401 wrote:No shift to New Orleans yet. Wonder if they're shifting slowly or they're not sure yet.
Models will move back and forth. It's best to make slow moves until certain it's a real trend or not. The last set of runs, many based off the GFS, might have been bad data, or might have been the start of a trend. If the trend continues overnight then by morning the track will probably shift again.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Yep here is part of long range discussion...THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC
DOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS
SHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER
OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LIES BETWEEN THEM. THE UPDATED TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
This could get very interesting for the N.O. areas and south. Supposed to have 72hr evac plan. They cant sit on this too much longer before begin having to make decisions.
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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So here's what I saw in that run... again the NAM should only be used for synoptics.. Which it is very good at..
At 0z +66 a weakness started to form in the ridge
At 0z +69 An alley started to open
At +79 the weakness in the ridge was still apparent allowing what the NAM perceived as the storm into the Panhandle of FL
At 0z +66 a weakness started to form in the ridge
At 0z +69 An alley started to open
At +79 the weakness in the ridge was still apparent allowing what the NAM perceived as the storm into the Panhandle of FL
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Re: Re:
Ixolib wrote:yeah, I was kinda wondering the same thing..... Seems I've heard it takes 72 hours to evacuate the city???Hurricane Cheese wrote:My question...will the NHC address this in the 11 pm discussion. When will they start to sound a larger alarm for LA...?
That is correct. It does take 72 hours.
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0z NAM Loop.. Ahh the trough digging in toward the end of the run... Thats going to be the kicker.. It all depends on timing
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I think the NHC is right in not making a large shift in their track.Tonights 0z run of the GFS and the Euro will determine whether they make a further west shift or not.
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The 0z GFS should be running soon, correct?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Jevo, could you post a pic or two of what the 18z gfs and another more western model show as far as ridge and weakness compared to the same time frame as the 72 hr NAM
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Re:
Jevo wrote:0z NAM Loop.. Ahh the trough digging in toward the end of the run... Thats going to be the kicker.. It all depends on timing
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html
CORRECT!!! That weakness looks stronger this run...GFS and EURO will be interesting...
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Re:
wx247 wrote:The 0z GFS should be running soon, correct?
Yes, it runs at 10:30 CDT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
So if we have a potential deepining cylcone entering the gulf, with half of the global models pointing toward within say 50 miles of your city, what would you do if you were the emergency manager in NOLA tonight? Seems that A LOT is going to depend on what happens here overnight with the next model run and the strength of Isaac as he enters the Keys...correct?
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Re: Re:
Nikki wrote:wx247 wrote:The 0z GFS should be running soon, correct?
Yes, it runs at 10:30 CDT
I thought so. Usually it has started by now, I thought. I am always on Twisterdata getting the info for chases and such. This will be a critical run for the GFS, but especially the EURO overnight. Jim Cantore's tweets this evening have been kind of ominous.
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