ATL: ISAAC - Models

[BigB0882]

I'd like to see a better initialization before I buy into this run.

What is the problem? We have said it looked right. Even if the center is a little farther off shore then it probably only puts it landfalling an hour or two earlier. The steering mechanisms shouldn't change just because it was initialized a little too close to shore (which I don't think it was).

[Countrygirl911]

The Weather Channel finally changed their cone.

i looked on the weather channel and i did not see the change yet can you post a picture of it on here

[perk]

On 8/23 the Euro had a similiar run,but was south of tonights GFS run.

[bayoubebe]

WWL radio out of NOLA just mentioned during Saints postgame radio coverage of the GFS shift and awaiting European run later tonight. Wow.

I would assume they are going to be super precautious since the disaster of Katrina.
Better to be safe, than sorry I guess.
It's weird that any of the gulf coast could be in danger in a couple of days, or not even get a drop. It can all change so quickly.

[Meteorcane]

Anybody notice that the landfall would be ~ Aug 29th? A date this guy from Chalmette remembers well.

[HeeBGBz]

The Weather Channel finally changed their cone.

i looked on the weather channel and i did not see the change yet can you post a picture of it on here

It was on teevee. They showed the new GFS point and the old Euro. The cone was including part of Louisiana with the GFS point in the New Orleans area.

[sphelps8681]

What model is showing a tx/la hit? Surely that can't be wright. Looking at the R storm it almost has it doing a Rita type track. Not so much in the models but track and landfall. With the R storm most models showed way more west track but the offical track seems to similar. JMHO.

[Senobia]

What model is showing a tx/la hit? Surely that can't be wright. Looking at the R storm it almost has it doing a Rita type track. Not so much in the models but track and landfall. With the R storm most models showed way more west track but the offical track seems to similar. JMHO.

Yes, which? GFL 0z? Link, please?

[gboudx]

What model is showing a tx/la hit? Surely that can't be wright. Looking at the R storm it almost has it doing a Rita type track. Not so much in the models but track and landfall. With the R storm most models showed way more west track but the offical track seems to similar. JMHO.

Yes, which? GFL 0z? Link, please?

GFS 0z. You can follow the link or just start about 4 pages back. Jevo has already posted most of it.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/natlsfc.php

[frederic79]

How much longer before the euro begins? Pins and needles here...

[Senobia]

What model is showing a tx/la hit? Surely that can't be wright. Looking at the R storm it almost has it doing a Rita type track. Not so much in the models but track and landfall. With the R storm most models showed way more west track but the offical track seems to similar. JMHO.

Yes, which? GFL 0z? Link, please?

GFS 0z. You can follow the link or just start about 4 pages back. Jevo has already posted most of it.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/natlsfc.php

Link doesn't work, searching for post.

[tolakram]

2AM EDT

[Jake8898]

I thought the GFS was not well regarded when it came to tropical systems.

[HurryKane]

GFS 0z. You can follow the link or just start about 4 pages back. Jevo has already posted most of it.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/natlsfc.php

Link doesn't work, searching for post.

Worked for me, you have to choose the type of map you want and click "view map" to get a graphic to appear.

[Senobia]

What model is showing a tx/la hit? Surely that can't be wright. Looking at the R storm it almost has it doing a Rita type track. Not so much in the models but track and landfall. With the R storm most models showed way more west track but the offical track seems to similar. JMHO.

[Blinhart]

I thought the GFS was not well regarded when it came to tropical systems.

No, it is one of the highest regarded models around these days. The TWC likes using the GFS and the Euro to do all their updates with. The GFS is a combination and average of multiple other models if I remember correctly, so it has a lot of credence with it.

[Stormlover2012]

whats weird about this is last sunday gfs has texas, euro had this same track 2 days ago, weather is so crazy

[artist]

Ok.. next up is the HWRF, then the Euro... We just had a squall come through with 38mph gusts here in Northern Broward County FL... Man Isaac has a long reach... we're still 18 hours away from 1st CONUS landfall

one hit us here in northern Palm Beach county too, howling through the windows and rain sideways. Short fortunately

[weatherrabbit_tx]

On 8/23 the Euro had a similiar run,but was south of tonights GFS run.

perk, I do remember that well. more so on our local ch. 11 (houston) weather forum. when srainhoutx posted the euro run thursday afternoon..must get rest now because its going to be an eventful week along the gulf coast.

[deltadog03]

I am trying to wrap my brain around this gfs run...It does what the euro did from a couple of days ago....Its hard to ignore multiple runs of it being further west. Tonights 00z EURO will be telling. I do find the almost due west movement that the GFS does from hour 12-30 *ish* interesting. I am curious to see how the gfs shoves this west, while the euro brings it north. The synoptic setup is nearly identical on the 2 models. The gfs doesn't "technically" connect the weakness even though its further south with the trof swinging through. The euro does...I am not saying euro is right, before I get flamed!!! BUT I AM saying that the spread btwn the 2 models are significant and the synoptic setup they are showing is not really different. So, is the GFS right? well, it damn may be...its been very persistant, for 3 runs in a row now. EURO had a run east today...does that continue? IDK...I would have to say I would lean on a split btwn the 2 and say somewhere near Biloxi looks likely.....

GFS is up first....



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EURO:



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