ATL: ISAAC - Models

[StormClouds63]

Euro vs. GFS ... still to be decided. The wait continues. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with the cone at 5 am. Probably a nudge to the west. Big question will be what happens with NOLA ... is it in or out of the cone?

A big thank you to all who posted the model runs.

[timmeister]

00Z EURO 96 HRS



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[StormClouds63]

Euro vs. GFS ... still to be decided. The wait continues. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with the cone at 5 am. Probably a nudge to the west. Big question will be what happens with NOLA ... is it in or out of the cone?

A big thank you to all who posted the model runs.

[SunnyThoughts]

So it hasn't really moved between hour 72 and hour 84? sitting right there on the Ala/Fla coast?

That could be REALLY bad for both of us Sunny.. At least 12 hours of water piling up in y'alls bays.. no good.

yeah smw, just sitting there and continuing to pump water up into mobile bay, as well as our bay here. Surely if it sits like that for longer than 8 hours or so...whatever intensity it happens to be will surely start to diminish. I would think/ and hope...but that won't help the fact that the water will be piling up.

[timmeister]

00Z EURO 120 HRS Look out Birmingham



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[TwisterFanatic]

Euro vs. GFS ... still to be decided. The wait continues. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with the cone at 5 am. Probably a nudge to the west. Big question will be what happens with NOLA ... is it in or out of the cone?

A big thank you to all who posted the model runs.

NOLA definitely in the cone, IMO

[SFLcane]

00z GFDL into southeastern florida in this run.

[Hyperstorm]

The following is NOT an official forecast. Refer to the NHC for official information.

I see a BIG shift in the forecast track AND cone at 5 am. Should be in the middle of the GFS and EURO....That would be a point in Mississippi and Alabama.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks for the posting of the model runs everybody. Its very much appreciated. Just wish we would get a consensus. I know we'll have one eventually, I just hope it comes before 8 hours before landfall.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z GFDL into southeastern florida in this run.

The GFDL has been going back and forth in intensity and track.

[Kingarabian]

[bella_may]

Euro done a much better job with this run than the gfs did IMO. And i'm a fan of the gfs

Would you share why you think that? I am trying to learn all I can.

It initialized much better and it done a good job with the ridge over colorado. again, jmo though

[Blinhart]

So 96 Kt wind would be what? 110-115 mph?

[TwisterFanatic]

While we didn't get a consensus tonight, I think tonight's EURO could've start the trend towards one. Again, Just my opinion.

[PTPatrick]

Late night round up then bed:
east to west...

0z UKmet panama city
0z gfdl destin
0z euro gulf shores
0z gfs/hwrf new orleans via Buras/Houma
0z Canadian Houma to baton rouge

[brunota2003]

95 knots is 110 mph, right on the threshold.

[Kingarabian]

Here is a loop:

[Blinhart]

What is the GFDI?

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Tracks..

[timmeister]

What is the GFDI?

GFDL is a computer model

A model developed specifically for tropical systems, this model is nested as part of the GFS global model, with a focus on the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The GFDL has become the most reliable model in recent years, with its average error the least of all models. It additionally has performed well with individual storms, often as either the most accurate or second-most accurate model with individual storms.