ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

I agree 110 %...which was the whole reason behind posting what I posted earlier in this thread earlier today...if it does become a dangerous cat 3/4, I would not want to be in NOLA...folks there should be thinking about evacuation plans NOW and be ready to move in a hurry BEFORE the official call is made...

[ozonepete]

Well our family is almost packed up, the cars are gassed up and by noon tomorrow we are heading to austin, tx. Boats are all tired to the trees (yes, you saw that right). One of our small oyster boats is coming out of the water in the morning.

My preemie grandson was discharged from the NICU a few days ago and needs oxygen. So, I may be leaving for nothing, but family comes first. I hope everyone fares good. We should arrive in about 10hrs, give or take a few for rest stop for the kids and my 80 y/o dad. And will be thinking about everyone on this board. I will be back on as soon as we reach the hotel.

Wow good luck to you. It's always better to be safe.

[LSU2001]

Godspeed Montegut and good luck. Hope we don't get what the GFS is showing but we will make do whatever comes.
Tim

[Blinhart]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

I have to feel that the folks at the NHC are already communicating with emergency officials in the NOLA/MS area about the possibility of Isaac making landfall in that area, I also imagine if the EURO shifts west we may see a dramatic (by NHC standards) shift west with the cone, although I should note that Dennis several years ago went through similar flip-flopping regarding it's final landfall location in the NGOM

I know the State of Louisiana workers were put on Alert Wednesday or Thursday, for them to be prepared for Isaac just in case he comes this way. So I won't be shocked if Governor Bobby Jindhal (whom is scheduled to speak at the RNC) has buses and drivers on stand-by, as well as the National Guard, and can blow the whistle at anytime and they will start the evacuation if needed.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They can't make the cone bigger...it is based off of the average errors from the last 10 years for each forecast point.

Actually, now it is 5 years. You can learn more about it here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml

[artist]

big island andros were big blob center of ISAAC look like moving too

yeahm I am watching that too. Fortunately they have a plane that will be there in awhile to let us know if the center is really under that blob or not.

[Hurricaneman]

What would be the ramifications if this is under the blob, farther north first Florida landfall or nothing different

[Hurricane Alexis]

MIMIC microwave imagery.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... hr_06.html

[Maven2379]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

I live just outside of NOLA and I really do think they need to make the cone just a little bigger!! I know I will leave if it shifts more this way but I really do think they need to make the cone bigger, just so residents of NOLA will know hey maybe I need to watch this! I know why they don't shift the cone for every run of the models, but I really think they could make the cone bigger!!

They can't make the cone bigger...it is based off of the average errors from the last 10 years for each forecast point.

Yes, I realize this, but they could make the cone bigger!! It's just a graphic they put on the screen on the news!! LOL The models are shifting the storm more this way, I just think the hurricane center could see that and make the cone bigger! Just a bit! I was in Alabama for Katrina wasn't at home for it, but I lost everything I owned because of it, and I knew it was coming here! My family and I went to Alabama to get away from it, we didn't come home till after Christmas, I know many people died in Katrina, I just don't want to see a repeat of that!

[Blinhart]

What would be the ramifications if this is under the blob, farther north first Florida landfall or nothing different

What I'm thinking is if it hits mainland Florida instead of the Keys, this will probably cause the cone to move even further West, due to the likely hood of Isaac weakening a little while over land, which would cause the storm to be steered by the lower currents longer than projected.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

So the Florida panhandle is in the clear now?

[Turtle]

I remember seeing the storm make landfall in TX/LA at 300+ hours in GFS, but that was long ago. Didn't think it would trend this way again. :o

[galaxy401]

So the Florida panhandle is in the clear now?

Can't say yet. Not in the clear until we know for sure.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved radar.



From the hard to load Cuba site.

[smw1981]

I have to feel that the folks at the NHC are already communicating with emergency officials in the NOLA/MS area about the possibility of Isaac making landfall in that area, I also imagine if the EURO shifts west we may see a dramatic (by NHC standards) shift west with the cone, although I should note that Dennis several years ago went through similar flip-flopping regarding it's final landfall location in the NGOM

I know they are in talks with Mobile's EMA, so I would assume the same thing. They are fully aware of everything that has to happen, and as soon as they know (or even begin to suspect), they will begin talks, so I feel REALLY confident that they have been talking to them most of the day today!

[Javlin]

So the Florida panhandle is in the clear now?

I would not go that far.I think maybe by tomorrow night things will be alittle clearer as to what might happen even then not a dot on the map.I was thinking the NHC is waiting for the very same thing before they pull that plug if NO goes deep into the cone.That being said if it does happen it hampers the MS coast residents on using I-10 as evact route because of Contra.I have a couple of repairs to make on th shop tomorrow just in case,so I do not take the chance of loosing a roof.

[MiamiensisWx]

All Gulf residents, feel free to go to the Gulf prep thread that I just initiated:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113510&p=2263956#p2263956

[timmeister]

So the Florida panhandle is in the clear now?

In my opinion, no one from Lake Charles, LA to Tallahassee, FL is in the clear. Until Issac develops into at least a mid-grade Hurricane and develops an eye, the models will not initialize correctly and will continue the east west shift after each run. Once Isaac moves past the keys and gets into the Gulf and strengthens, then the models should come more into agreement. But I'm just an amateur, not a professional so don't rely on what I say. See disclaimer below.

[galaxy401]

This will be scary if the models do pan this out considering the anniversary of Katrina will be around that time.

[Jag95]

So the Florida panhandle is in the clear now?

Hardly...don't forget the Euro. Personally, I wouldn't think you're all clear until it's west of you.