ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blinhart]

But the TWC didn't have GFDL they had GFDI.

[Kingarabian]

But the TWC didn't have GFDL they had GFDI.

Same thang.

[TwisterFanatic]

0zGFS Ensemble Tracks..
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... ck_gfs.png

Looks to be very tightly clustered.

[Rgv20]

What is the GFDI?

"Previous cycle GFDL, adjusted"

Here is a link for the description of the various models the NHC uses...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[Blinhart]

Yeah looks very tightly clustered all over Louisiana. Can hardly see any of Louisiana with all those marks. But I think I saw a couple actually go near Beaumont.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

95 knots is 110 mph, right on the threshold.

Sustained I'm guessing? That's 178kmhr ....

[HouTXmetro]

WTH is going on? I leave the board virtually all day and log on tonight and see the GFS with a dramatic shift west to Louisiana. Not to mention several GFS ensembles headed into SE Texas? What changed throughout the last 18 or so hours. I just new the FL panhandle/AL/MS coast was a done deal.

[brunota2003]

95 knots is 110 mph, right on the threshold.

Sustained I'm guessing? That's 178kmhr ....

Yep, that would be sustained.

[Hurricane Cheese]

The $64,000 question I have tonight is what are the emergency managers in NOLA going to do? The ensembles place them squarely in the cone, and it takes 72 hours to induce a mandatory evacuation of NOLA. If they don't do it and this does indeed become a major hurricane approaching from SE...then....

[ROCK]

Oh, I have been telling you guys for days now....but noooo....I get publicly flogged, dis-embowled and quartered.....


west is the only way....it will not miss right...god speed to those who are in Isass'a path....


JMO....add 2K disclamier.....I just got back from having 9 vodak and cranberries...

[KWT]

Wow some of the models really are bullish, quite a few are very close to major status now!

[Katrina New Orleans]

The $64,000 question I have tonight is what are the emergency managers in NOLA going to do? The ensembles place them squarely in the cone, and it takes 72 hours to induce a mandatory evacuation of NOLA. If they don't do it and this does indeed become a major hurricane approaching from SE...then....

Well I live on the westbank of New Orleans so I can answer that one for you. What will we do evacuate evacuate evacuate!!!!!!! I believe we will get started in the morning no one wants to be responsible for lives after what happen with Katrina!

[jinftl]

I imagine emergency officials go off of the NHC official forecast and not the Isaacs Model thread here...let's see how the experts interpret all the varying data. Evacuations are based off of official NHC forecasts and guidance/discussion. No doubt there is heightened concern when New Orleans is involved based on the time to evacuate, but let's see what the 5am forecast says

The $64,000 question I have tonight is what are the emergency managers in NOLA going to do? The ensembles place them squarely in the cone, and it takes 72 hours to induce a mandatory evacuation of NOLA. If they don't do it and this does indeed become a major hurricane approaching from SE...then....

Well I live on the westbank of New Orleans so I can answer that one for you. What will we do evacuate evacuate evacuate!!!!!!! I believe we will get started in the morning no one wants to be responsible for lives after what happen with Katrina!

[Shuriken]

HWRF:

[ROCK]

another shift west!! from the HWRF...

[HurryKane]

I imagine emergency officials go off of the NHC official forecast and not the Isaacs Model thread here...let's see how the experts interpret all the varying data. Evacuations are based off of official NHC forecasts and guidance/discussion. No doubt there is heightened concern when New Orleans is involved based on the time to evacuate, but let's see what the 5am forecast says

The $64,000 question I have tonight is what are the emergency managers in NOLA going to do? The ensembles place them squarely in the cone, and it takes 72 hours to induce a mandatory evacuation of NOLA. If they don't do it and this does indeed become a major hurricane approaching from SE...then....

Well I live on the westbank of New Orleans so I can answer that one for you. What will we do evacuate evacuate evacuate!!!!!!! I believe we will get started in the morning no one wants to be responsible for lives after what happen with Katrina!

Now that the 5 AM is out:

WWLTV and WDSU (NOLA) are running paid advertisements, no info.
wwltv.com is sounding the alarm about the new NHC path.Wdsu.com says Jefferson/Plaquemines parishes are in high alert.
nola.com has an article buried somewhere other than the front page, filed at 11 pm last night.
WLOX (Biloxi) and the Mobile station are running paid programming with small bugs showing the hurricane watch.

I fear that with it being a Sunday, many will be caught off guard with large forecast shifts occurring on a weekend as happened with Katrina.



(as of 0500 CDT WDSU now has a big red ticker at the top of the screen about Isaac/watches)

[stormreader]

Looking real hard at the latest GFS. Yesterday afternoon with GFS landfall projected near New Orleans and extreme SE La, I thought that we might expect Isaac to come ashore even a little west of that near Grand Isle in SE La. Have to think now that latest GFS is even more telling, with a complete miss by the trough to the north. Anywhere now along central La coast seems more probable with a slower storm as we approach landfall. Somewhere near Atchafalaya Bay and Morgan City looks good. Do think it will have enough N component to move solidly inland near there and not furthe west near Cameron.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Looking at GFS 42hrs, a strong ULL will be anchored NE of Hispaniola.

This should create a good outflow channel across the north and east quads of Isaac.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Anti-cyclone still forecast to be over Isaac which aids stretching his vorticity column vertically and helping him to spin up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Looks like he may have to contend with a pocket of bounday-layer dry air to his west though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Any shift west in his track at that time brings him closer to the Loop-Current Eddy at 26N 89W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260000.GIF

NAM is forecasting CAPE = 2000 at that time with no CIN.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... ding.y=542

[Bluefrog]

You are exactly right HurryKane. Saw on FB a guy post he was headed out fishing. WTH. MODELS SHIFTING WEST STILL WILL PUT US IN A BAD SPOT !!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Guys posted this in other thread but will put in here as well. The reason N.O. is not starting evacs is because they are not under watch. As soon as watch is issued it sets things motion. Forecast is too low right now. We have all seen how fast models can change.