ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FutureEM]

Saved radar.

http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/7964 ... p200km.gif

From the hard to load Cuba site.

That's a big difference from a couple of hours ago, really wrapping back up now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved radar from Camaguey:

[Aric Dunn]

panhandle is at very high risk ... more than areas west. two runs of models are not a consensus . gfs went 4 days from the big bend to destin ... at 2 runs of west is nothing to make certain yet.. the system still needs to organize more. next couple runs will help.... we did get past a big hurtle today with islands so it will be a little more straight forward tomorrow

[Blinhart]

Aric is politely agree to disagree with you, I'm starting to think that the GFS is more in line with what will actually happen, I know you are a Pro Met, but many different news agencies around are buying into the latest run of the GFS, so there must be some credence to it. I'm not trying to start an argument just stating that is pretty bold to say that the GFS is pretty off here. If I misunderstood, I'm sorry.

[jhpigott]

Wind steadily picking up here in Palm Beach County. Out of the NE at 17mph

[blp]

panhandle is at very high risk ... more than areas west. two runs of models are not a consensus . gfs went 4 days from the big bend to destin ... at 2 runs of west is nothing to make certain yet.. the system still needs to organize more. next couple runs will help.... we did get past a big hurtle today with islands so it will be a little more straight forward tomorrow

Aric any ideas on the current heading.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric is politely agree to disagree with you, I'm starting to think that the GFS is more in line with what will actually happen, I know you are a Pro Met, but many different news agencies around are buying into the latest run of the GFS, so there must be some credence to it. I'm not trying to start an argument just stating that is pretty bold to say that the GFS is pretty off here. If I misunderstood, I'm sorry.

well just the other day they were buying into the euro being west and disregarding the gfs.. all I can tell you is the consensus has not changed much and a panhandle solution has been in place for the last almost 5 days. give it one more day and the models will start nailing things down once it starts its nnw turn into the gulf. just prepare as if it was coming . dont wait. if it does not at least your ready.

[MidnightRain]

There's so much focus on the Gulf coast right now, rightfully so, but let's not forget this is heading towards the Keys and south Florida right now. And it could be a significant cane by the time it gets there. He's looking good tonight on IR.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LowndesCoFire]

So the Florida panhandle is in the clear now?

Hardly...don't forget the Euro. Personally, I wouldn't think you're all clear until it's west of you.

From the last few pages, it appears that EVERYONE has forgotten about the Euro and possibly letting guards down, which can be dangerous! Reminds me of a kid with a new toy...lost interest in the old toy! Well another new toy comes out in about an hour so lets see what happens. Just my opinion!

[shredderola]

[MiamiensisWx]

...SRN/CNTRL FL AND THE FL KEYS...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER SRN/CNTRL FL TODAY
WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ISAAC.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WIDE SWATH OF 0-1 KM SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 30-40 KTS OVERSPREADING THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTER OF ISAAC /PER IR
LOOP/...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL DEVELOP OVER THE FL
PENINSULA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN/OUTSIDE THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS OF ISAAC...WITH MLCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
500-1000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A TORNADO THREAT MAY
ACCOMPANY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE N/NERN PERIPHERY OF
ISAAC...AND PERHAPS WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN OUTER RAIN BANDS.
A THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RELATIVELY STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND/OR WITHIN ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY/TRACK FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER INDICATES TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
LATER TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES SERN GULF. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT
BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE W COAST OF
THE FL PENINSULA...WITH THE FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT OF ISAAC
POSITIONED FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY SWD AFTER 00Z. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
SFC HEATING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTO EARLY MON
MORNING.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[BigB0882]

panhandle is at very high risk ... more than areas west. two runs of models are not a consensus . gfs went 4 days from the big bend to destin ... at 2 runs of west is nothing to make certain yet.. the system still needs to organize more. next couple runs will help.... we did get past a big hurtle today with islands so it will be a little more straight forward tomorrow

But don't 2 model runs in a row within 3 days of landfall have much more weight than even 4 model runs in a row when it is 5 days out or more from landfall? 2 runs in a row normally doesn't get me all excited but being within 3 days of landfall does. I'm taking it seriously and I will take it very seriously if the Euro jumps on board.

[shredderola]

NWS out of Melbourne ......

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STORM CENTER...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WHERE
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A POSSIBILITY
OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

DUE TO THE TRACK OF ISAAC WEST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING OVER MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AND SPREAD
NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY
AND NOT DIMINISH UNTIL ISAAC PULLS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SQUALLS WRAPPING
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF ISAAC WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE
AND...IN SOME CASES...MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LONG TRACK AND
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

You would think south fla would be painted red on that map for the threat.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved image through 1:15AM EDT:

[SouthernBreeze]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

[ozonepete]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

Not just on the radar, but satellite as well, it has moved a LOT northwest. This could have serious implications for track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jhpigott]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

Not just on the radar, but satellite as well, it has moved a LOT northwest. This could have serious implications for track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Recon is going to be in there shortly to sort this out. But I'm with you . . . radar and satellite suggest this thing is right of the forecast track. May have some implications for Keys, SFL?

[Bocadude85]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

Not just on the radar, but satellite as well, it has moved a LOT northwest. This could have serious implications for track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How so? Im having a hard time even finding the center.. what lat/long are you thinking?

[Senobia]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

Not just on the radar, but satellite as well, it has moved a LOT northwest. This could have serious implications for track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How so?