ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

This is a little right of the forecasted path right now...

[Meteorcane]

RECON will show soon if it is a little right of its points.

[ozonepete]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

Not just on the radar, but satellite as well, it has moved a LOT northwest. This could have serious implications for track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

How so? Im having a hard time even finding the center.. what lat/long are you thinking?

I'm seeing 22.5N 77.4W roughly. But let's wait for RECON.

[BigB0882]

Don't some of the models have it going right of the NHC track until it gets past the keys? I am thinking the HWRF for one. That model still shows a LA landfall but it is further East of the NHC track until it gets past the Keys. I think it shows upper Keys landfall, not far from shore at all. I could be wrong, will go back to look and edit if needed.

[Hurricane Alexis]

he's moved quite a bit north from the previous Cuban radar on this page!

Not just on the radar, but satellite as well, it has moved a LOT northwest. This could have serious implications for track.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm seeing 22.5N 77.4W roughly. But let's wait for RECON.

That's barely off the track then.

[Bruton]

Is it just me or is the blob headed to the N keys?

[CourierPR]

22.5 and 77.4 would be .4 degrees farther north and .2 degrees farther west than last fix.

[WxEnthus]

My husband and I fell in live with Key West years ago. Try to visit there every year. Our beloved Conchs are on my mind tonight. Ill spend some time tomorrow monitoring the weather conditions on numerous webcams in KW and thru out the keys. Here's a link to dozens of streaming cams. http://www.floridakeyswebcams.tv

Thanks for the link to the cams! The Keys are our chosen home away from home. I cannot help but think of how low-lying it is and of course there is just that one road out. Of course, they've been through many storms and know what can happen. I hope everyone has taken appropriate safety precautions -- and they turn out to be unnecessary!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved image through 1:30AM EDT:

[Hurricane Alexis]

Sill looks disorganized imo.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

Change at 2am:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

[Blinhart]

Sill looks disorganized imo..

That is what is worrisome for me. My feeling is that the longer it takes for him to get organized, the further West he will go.

[ozonepete]

22.5 and 77.4 would be .4 degrees farther north and .2 degrees farther west than last fix.

Yeah CPR, and that's not good for SE Florida. It's just what I see, and although I learned from the best (Aric is one of them) we still have to wait for RECON. But .4 degrees north is too much more than it should have been. That would be a jog to the NNW which is, once again, more towards the northern keys or even more north than that. Let's see what RECON fixes.

[tgenius]

If Isaac continues NW heading that significantly wouldn't the watch in Dade get bumped to a Hurricane Warning? Is it really that much North and or to the east of the points?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Sill looks disorganized imo..

That is what is worrisome for me. My feeling is that the longer it takes for him to get organized, the further West he will go.

That will be bad for the gulf coast but better down here. Hopefully it just stays weak it's whole life.

[Hurricane Alexis]

22.5 and 77.4 would be .4 degrees farther north and .2 degrees farther west than last fix.

Yeah CPR, and that's not good for SE Florida. It's just what I see, and although I learned from the best (Aric is one of them) we still have to wait for RECON. But .4 degrees north is too much more than it should have been. That would be a jog to the NNW which is, once again, more towards the northern keys or even more north than that. Let's see what RECON fixes.

Isn't it forecast to start moving WNW in a few hours?

[MiamiensisWx]

Change at 2am:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

That is potentially significant in that it may indicate the NHC now anticipates Isaac to become a hurricane at least 12 hours earlier than originally forecasted. The track still shows a TS at the time of closest approach to Andros.

[Hurricane Alexis]

At this strength I would like for it to make landfall in the mainland....less rain would fall near the center and the tornado threat would be lessened near the center.

[LaBreeze]

Sill looks disorganized imo..

That is what is worrisome for me. My feeling is that the longer it takes for him to get organized, the further West he will go.

My gut feeling too Blinhart. Not liking these runs tonight.

[jinftl]

The NHC had mentioned that in the 5pm Discussion but now in the 2am Advisory they are saying:

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

22.5 and 77.4 would be .4 degrees farther north and .2 degrees farther west than last fix.

Yeah CPR, and that's not good for SE Florida. It's just what I see, and although I learned from the best (Aric is one of them) we still have to wait for RECON. But .4 degrees north is too much more than it should have been. That would be a jog to the NNW which is, once again, more towards the northern keys or even more north than that. Let's see what RECON fixes.

Isn't it forecast to start moving WNW in a few hours?