ATL: ISAAC - Models

[wxwatcher1999]

does anyone think the models will shift even more west and what about the upper texas coast are they in play?

[BigEasy]

We know from past experience....a landfalling hurricane on the MS coast or even SE Louisiana will bring the bad NE quadrant of the storm over SW Alabama. That depends on the size and strength of said hurricane, but generally speaking a hit on the MS Coast or towards NOLA brings bad tidings to Mobile as well.

So true. Many folks do not understand the very close proximity ot the three general areas you have mentioned, even though all three are obviously three different states. It only takes 2 hours drive time to get from Mobile to New Orleans etc. A small distance; covering three state areas.

[wxwatcher1999]

wow i just noticed some ensembles go as far west as Galveston!

[Sabanic]

So true . . . From my house here in West Mobile to the The Int Airport in NOLA is only 139 Miles. Even those In the Panhandle do not need to let their guards down. Far too much time, and too much GOM out there, and so many things can change.

We know from past experience....a landfalling hurricane on the MS coast or even SE Louisiana will bring the bad NE quadrant of the storm over SW Alabama. That depends on the size and strength of said hurricane, but generally speaking a hit on the MS Coast or towards NOLA brings bad tidings to Mobile as well.

So true. Many folks do not understand the very close proximity ot the three general areas you have mentioned, even though all three are obviously three different states. It only takes 2 hours drive time to get from Mobile to New Orleans etc. A small distance; covering three state areas.

[amawea]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have been telling my wife that I believed a Mobile, Al. landfall was probably likely since yesterday a.m. The weather to the north and northwest of Isaac is fairly stagnant as far as the weak trough out in the plains. It is not that strong and drifting slowly westward. Because of this I felt Isaac would be east of the Florida west coast.

[tolakram]

General discussion needs to be in the discussion thread please, not the models thread.

[nashrobertsx]

Can anyone give a quick scene-setter for all the factors in play here i.e. ULL to the storm's west moving further away to the west which will cut off dry air to the storm..... upper ridge to the storm's NE.. another ridge over the rockies... the trough over the west coast.....If you can, graphics would be great too along with short explaner. THX.

[poof121]

Not looking good for NOLA...



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[Janie2006]

Frankly I'm not certain why the HWRF is the only model taking this storm to Cat 3 whilst the others keep it in the Cat 2 range. It seems that prime conditions are ahead for intensification.....unless the other models think Isaac's structure can't take full advantage of those atmospheric conditions.

[pgoss11]

Not looking good for NOLA...



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What the heck is the Ukmet seeing?

[Tyler Penland]

gfs is king this year for sure. euro is number 2

Yeah, the Euro's crown is stained heavily now, I don't think early on it did well with Isaac at all but the late stages might be better, however with the last cycle of runs I'm not sure it will perform well again! With the 06z GFS showing the same as the previous one, New Orleans should be put under a watch now.

I would be more surprised if the 6/18z didn't show something similar to the 0/12z runs preceding them. They are run off the same situation, and the 6/18 have a bit less info plugged into them. I generally ignore the off-hour runs of the GFS for this reason.

[rainstorm]

Frankly I'm not certain why the HWRF is the only model taking this storm to Cat 3 whilst the others keep it in the Cat 2 range. It seems that prime conditions are ahead for intensification.....unless the other models think Isaac's structure can't take full advantage of those atmospheric conditions.

lets wait to see if isaac forms a core. right now the models arent too impressed due to isaacs disorganization. intensity is very hard to forecast 3 days out. models may have a cat4 se of NO tuesday am or a slop mess headed into northern mexico.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not looking good for NOLA...



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What the heck is the Ukmet seeing?

reminds me of ivan. identical.

[HurrMark]

Frankly I'm not certain why the HWRF is the only model taking this storm to Cat 3 whilst the others keep it in the Cat 2 range. It seems that prime conditions are ahead for intensification.....unless the other models think Isaac's structure can't take full advantage of those atmospheric conditions.

As wxman57 noted, instability is far lower than normal in the Gulf (similar to late May right now). Also, Haiti and Cuba took a number on its core, and it will take a while to regroup. If we are lucky, it could pull an Isidore (2002) and never regroup despite near ideal conditions (although I think the core is in better shape than Isidore was at the time).

[Steve]

Running A 06z model check beyond the gfs has the gfdl landfalling around port fourchon with the lowest pressure around 976 and a max windspeed of 67 knots. It never really tightens that much and heads toward AR/OK near the end of the run. Previous landfall at 00z was between navarre beach and Santa Rosa Beach. So that was a big swing west.Hwrf on the other hand gets it down to 940mb and 105 knot winds which is very formidable. It goes in west of gfdl around lower st. Mary parish (Morgan city, berwick, Patterson). That's similar to where Andrew made landfall. If you never play with the fim model, and there are a ton of tools, the link below combines ensembles of gfs and fim, which stands for forecast improvement model, which you can play around with. Back out a level for tons of addl parameters. Fwiw, we are on standby here. Our evacuation would be to my house in pensacola which is just as sketchy to me right now as nola. We have gas, water, beer and other essentials in case we get stuck for a while. Its wait and see. As people clue in today, and if the threat for LA becomes more evident, the highways will be gridlocked by tomorrow afternoon. Link to those ensembles : http://www.hfip.org/data_ens/index.cgi?dsKey=fimens

[Janie2006]

Some of the models (less and less with each run, it seems) want to take Isaac into a trough over the Southeast, that's why you see that N and then NE curve. However, if that trough doesn't pick up Isaac then that's another story entirely. In that case you get the last run of the operational GFS.....or something similar to that run.

[Jake8898]

What are the chances this moves even farther west? How large is this storm's windfield?

[rainstorm]

What are the chances this moves even farther west? How large is this storm's windfield?

i would think the weaker it stays the further west it goes. if it stays like it is now it may well hit texas or even mexico as there will be nothing for the upper steering currents to grab.

[stormreader]

Some have asked about moving even further west toward upper Texas. Its possible now, but I think the central La coast is more likely. One thing to be considered is that if Issac will have gained enough latitude by that time that even if she continued with a strong westerly component she would be very close if not on the central La coast. At that point I think there would still be enough of a north component to bring her ashore there (central La). So thats what I'm thinking---near Morgan City La.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wx247]

What are the chances this moves even farther west? How large is this storm's windfield?

i would think the weaker it stays the further west it goes. if it stays like it is now it may well hit texas or even mexico as there will be nothing for the upper steering currents to grab.

Seeing as how there is no model support for this statement, what synoptical features on the models are you using to make this assessment? Please be mindful of the things said over the next few days as there are many who check these forums for information to stay "ahead of the curve" regarding model data.