ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Alexis]

Change at 2am:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

That is potentially significant in that it may indicate the NHC now anticipates Isaac to become a hurricane at least 12 hours earlier than originally forecasted. The track still shows a TS at the time of closest approach to Andros.

But it looks disorganized, i think the warning was put because it went a bit more than north than anticipated, just for precaution.

[ozonepete]

If Isaac continues NW heading that significantly wouldn't the watch in Dade get bumped to a Hurricane Warning? Is it really that much North and or to the east of the points?

There is a very real chance that watches will get bumped to warnings for Dade County. Let's see what RECON finds. The NHC wouldn't probably change them til 5AM anyway which is prudent.

['CaneFreak]

Doesn't look disorganized to me...satellite imagery looks like Hurricane Bertha (Cat 2) at landfall in NC in 1996...

Change at 2am:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

That is potentially significant in that it may indicate the NHC now anticipates Isaac to become a hurricane at least 12 hours earlier than originally forecasted. The track still shows a TS at the time of closest approach to Andros.

But it looks disorganized, i think the warning was put because it went a bit more than north than anticipated, just for precaution.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Doesn't look disorganized to me...satellite imagery looks like Hurricane Bertha (Cat 2) at landfall in NC in 1996...

Change at 2am:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

That is potentially significant in that it may indicate the NHC now anticipates Isaac to become a hurricane at least 12 hours earlier than originally forecasted. The track still shows a TS at the time of closest approach to Andros.

But it looks disorganized, i think the warning was put because it went a bit more than north than anticipated, just for precaution.

[/quote]

This has no convection in it's south side though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sill looks disorganized imo..

That is what is worrisome for me. My feeling is that the longer it takes for him to get organized, the further West he will go.

My gut feeling too Blinhart. Not liking these runs tonight.

If it makes it further west it wont be because of the storm's strength. There was actually a pretty big discussion on this earlier today. While weaker usually pertains to a weaker moving system, synoptic steering factors usually trump that. The factors determining how far west this gets include how fast it moves, how strong the ridge to the north is currently, how deep the trough coming down will be in the coming days, as well as its timing, and how quickly the ridge builds in behind that trough. Also of importance is the secondary vort max west of Isaac that is creating a minor fujiwara effect between the two, possibly causing Isaac to take a temporarily more westerly track once in the SE gulf.

[Bocadude85]

Top part of the CDO or whatever you want to call it is starting to show up on long range radar down by Andros Island

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[jinftl]

With recon arriving on the scene i think we will have a much better sense of Isaac's current level of intensity and organization. There have been times when the satellite presentation has looked so much stronger than recon found to be the actual intensity so intensity estimates by satellite alone are done with caution.

What's going on in the blob near the center and south of Andros will tell us alot i think - is that a center trying to spin up into an eventual eyewall or not.

The Government of the Bahamas put Andros under the Hurricane Warning - not sure if that means the NHC suggested or collaborated on that or not.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved through 2AM EDT:



I'm going to create a mosaic image next of the whole country.

[Blinhart]

Cheesy I understand that, but from what I understand the lower level steering currents would be more West that the higher level steering currents.

[MJS1]

Change at 2am:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

That is potentially significant in that it may indicate the NHC now anticipates Isaac to become a hurricane at least 12 hours earlier than originally forecasted. The track still shows a TS at the time of closest approach to Andros.

But it looks disorganized, i think the warning was put because it went a bit more than north than anticipated, just for precaution.

I disagree...it costs money to go into "Warning" mode just as a precaution...even if it didn't, why not go into "Warning" mode during all the hurricane season, even if nothing was brewing in the tropics??...it would lose effectiveness...just my opinion

[jinftl]

Does the fact that the Government of the Bahamas put Andros under the warning factor in - i am not sure how that all works, if other countries coordinate watches and warnings with the NHC or if they do their own thing. Perhaps the NHC wouldn't have put the warning? Only speculation on my part - i know nada about the jurisdictional aspects of warnings!

That is potentially significant in that it may indicate the NHC now anticipates Isaac to become a hurricane at least 12 hours earlier than originally forecasted. The track still shows a TS at the time of closest approach to Andros.

But it looks disorganized, i think the warning was put because it went a bit more than north than anticipated, just for precaution.

I disagree...it costs money to go into "Warning" mode just as a precaution...even if it didn't, why not go into "Warning" mode during all the hurricane season, even if nothing was brewing in the tropics??...it would lose effectiveness...just my opinion

[Bruton]

Where is the hurricane hunter info?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Saved Cuba radar mosaic through 2AM EDT:

[jhpigott]

VDM yet?

[brunota2003]

Does the fact that the Government of the Bahamas put Andros under the warning factor in - i am not sure how that all works, if other countries coordinate watches and warnings with the NHC or if they do their own thing. Perhaps the NHC wouldn't have put the warning? Only speculation on my part - i know nada about the jurisdictional aspects of warnings!

Kind of, sort of. The NHC coordinates with other countries, but ultimately the actual issuance of the warnings falls to the countries themselves. I've seen in the discussions where the forecaster was basically pleading for them to put watches/warning out...saying that they recommend it, etc. The NHC only has jurisdiction in the U.S.

[Sanibel]

Just got back to the island. I'm exhausted. Need sleep and will wake up to see what kind of preparations, if any, need to be done.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Stronger showers are moving in the SE coast.

[MJS1]

[quote="jinftl"]Does the fact that the Government of the Bahamas put Andros under the warning factor in - i am not sure how that all works, if other countries coordinate watches and warnings with the NHC or if they do their own thing. Perhaps the NHC wouldn't have put the warning? Only speculation on my part - i know nada about the jurisdictional aspects of warnings!

/quote]


I think the phrase "The GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS has placed Andros Island......" means lots..I'm sure there's some sort of mutual aid pact between the respective weather services,but I'm pretty sure the Bahamas' government has the final say...

[brunota2003]

Where is the hurricane hunter info?

It's in the thread for Recon

[Sanibel]

Strong breezes shaking the bushes here.


I saw convoys of tree service mutual aid utility trucks driving down 95.