ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Steve]

Hard to get back to them and control from my blackberry but it deended on the model. Most were 72-84 hour timeframe but don't hold me to that because I looked at them an hour ago. We got 90% of the city out for katrina in record time but it took me 12 hrs to get to Alexandria (and 16 to get to Atx for gustav.). So if they issue orders tonight, there should be 48-60 hrs based on models to get everyone out. Its going to catch a ton of people off guard though which is why storm2k is so valuable. I was able to stock up on everything I needed without lines anywhere. On standby for the BAm 12z's then cmc, nogaps, gfs, hwrf and gfdl.

[Aric Dunn]

thats a big shift in the models. fell asleep last night never saw the 00z

[Jevo]

12z NAM +54 (Going... Going.......)

[HurrMark]

Turning NNW at 51 hrs, but still west of 06z and much west of 00Z.

[Jevo]

12z NAM +57 (Gone..... weakness in the ridge opened up.. now we'll see how the other models react to it)

For those focusing on the track of the Isaac in the NAM, it's not a reliable model for that purpose. Focus on the environment in front of the storm, this is where the NAM excels.

[Stormlover2012]

yeah nam catching on its always been a behind but slowly shifs west each run

[Stormlover2012]

yeah but nam had been a step behind the whole time, gfs up next lets see if it sticks to its guns

[BigB0882]

NAM insists on the ridge breaking down around 50 hours. If it is right then this would probably indeed end up where the NAM shows it.

[Jevo]

12z NAM +60 (Weakness in the ridge very apparent now)

Timing Timing Timing........

[deltadog03]

This really is a very hard forecast....IF** that weakness opens and "catches" Isaac, then it will be east, but for now most models *gfs based* are not showing that happen...Very tough forecast.

[pgoss11]

12z NAM +60 (Weakness in the ridge very apparent now)

Timing Timing Timing........

Yeah..weakness is very evident at this time..wonder if we'll be back to the sharp NE turn again after landfall

[Steve]

Agreed Aric. But it is commensurate with the westpac ridging into Korea from 3 days ago for 6 days out (from then) for the SE US Coast. B was to go into that Gulf behind Korea and tembin went past Taiwan, looped, hit Taiwan and now hooks off to china. Look for continued strong ridging from the Atlantic in the 7-12 day range if that track (00z last night)verifies. That could, after some early erosion, set the table for the Gulf and the State of Florida to remain open for business, with obviously potential transient troughing, at least a couple more weeks in this pattern.

[HurrMark]

Well, the ridge may be breaking down, but how far west will this be when this happens? The trend is the friend... (or enemy)

[Jevo]

12z NAM +66

[BigB0882]

I have no idea what any of the means, Steve. What does ridging in the 7-12 day timeframe have to do with a landfalling storm in 2-3 days?

[pgoss11]

12z NAM +66

seems to be crawling..

[Stormlover2012]

ive been hearing bout the high in colorado what does the high look like on this run

[HurrMark]

This really is a very hard forecast....IF** that weakness opens and "catches" Isaac, then it will be east, but for now most models *gfs based* are not showing that happen...Very tough forecast.

Even if it does catch Isaac, it would probably be far enough west that AL-MS would feel the brunt of it. So while I wouldn't think Florida is out of the woods, I think the track is still showing a westward trend...

[Jevo]

12z NAM +72

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think it's showing so much of the trough "capturing" it as it is showing less ridging over the upper Florida peninsula thus less of a westerly track.