ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ATCcane]

Looks to have turned more west just off the coast at 60hrs

[ROCK]

west drift more like it

[Ntxw]

60hrs slowing and just off or near the coast heading more west than nw.

[ROCK]

west shifts up coming.IMO.....we always say 70% miss right....this looks like it going to miss left BIG time....

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[Deputy Van Halen]

Almost all this model discussion is about landfall locations. I think this is a rare case where the most important thing is where the storm goes after landfall. If Isaac can dump a lot of rain on Kansas, Missouri, etc., he could have his name retired as an honor rather than a dishonor, sort of like a baseball player having his number retired.

Can we expect folks to be posting some rainfall models for the U.S. interior soon?

[Javlin]

At the 60hr ridge is hardly holding by a thread!!

[BigB0882]

Does the GFS not show the same weakness the NAM showed? I know the NAM also sent Isaac West at the end but I never what it shows verbatim.

[wxwatcher1999]

Rock...should i start getting prepared if i live in Port Arthur, Texas

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like I better start preparing. Good grief...

[Ntxw]

72 hrs continues west SLOWLY. Central La coast would be battered for quite some time per GFS.

[Javlin]

ridge breaks @66hrs look to go NE

[BigB0882]

I wonder what kind of conditions that kind of track would give us in Baton Rouge? Would a coast hugger mean we are far enough inland to just have rain or would we also have sustained TS winds? I suppose it all depends on strength.

[Dean4Storms]

Thru 80hrs moving west right along the LA Coastline just offshore.

[pgoss11]

ridge breaks @66hrs look to go NE

Timing will be everything with storm..

[Ntxw]

84 hrs still hugging the Central La coast south of Lafayette getting near western La coastline.

[Portastorm]

Jevo, if the ridge is breaking the storm doesn't appear to be responding per the 12z GFS. Still moving west after 66 hrs.

[BigB0882]

Could this run be any more identical to the last run? Consistent GFS!

[Stormlover2012]

this is more west this run

[perk]

At Hr 84 it appears to be back under a piece of that ridge over Texas.

[Ntxw]

96 hrs coming inland along the TX/La border.



It's waiting for that central conus trough to pick it up