ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Morning Visible

[WeatherGuesser]

And, thank you for saying "hit on MS" as Katrina still otherwise continues to this day to be thought of as a N.O. storm by many if not most.....

People forget that Biloxi basically disappeared. For the second time.

Hopefully whatever has been rebuilt so far will have been built better and not on the coast front.

Brings up the question though ... if they get hit hard a third time, will they rebuild?

[tolakram]

Key West, saved radar loop.

[BobHarlem]

This radar http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... 28radar%29 loop is about the perfect view for Isaac's track coming up. Longer loop of it http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?140

[Jevo]

We just had a nice squall line come through my neck of the woods and there was a steady 25mph -35mps sustained wind. I start to see transformers popping a little north of me and check again to see this stations reading 2 miles North of me..

Tornado?

[Shuriken]

Wow on the NOLA call. That may be a big regret later today tomorrow.

They're charmed, I tell yeh: it looked for all the world that the mid-level circ was going to hover up the low-level vortex in the central Caribbean, and they stubbornly refused to shift the cone left -- and came out smelling like roses.

This time, though, more than one model runs it right up the Mississippi delta, so it's a gutsy call.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My forecast:
11am 70mph
5pm 75mph
11pm 75mph
5am 85mph
11pm 95mph
But since recon won't be in there for awhile, they may be hesitant to upgrade to a hurricane.

[GCANE]

Some positive LI numbers over Cuba this morning as expected.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Solar heating during the day today should destabilize the air and expect to see thunderstorms fire up over land late this afternoon.

Most likely they will mix into Isaac and help with core heating.

[AHS2011]

When is recon going to arrive?

[jinftl]

Be safe...don't underestimate a 12-18 hour period of tropical storm conditions...we are just getting going here in south fla....there are 230 miles of bad weather to our east and southeast..that will pass through



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN BROWARD
COUNTY...MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 751 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ASHORE ALONG THE
EAST COAST FROM PALM BEACH TO MIAMI DADE COUNTIES...AND MOVING
WEST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
HIALEAH...
DORAL...
SWEETWATER...
KENDALE LAKES...
MICCOSUKEE RESORT...
INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

[HurrMark]

Haiti/Cuba sure took a number on this. It may take a long time for it to recover.

[BigEasy]

Wow on the NOLA call. That may be a big regret later today tomorrow.

They're charmed, I tell yeh: it looked for all the world that the mid-level circ was going to hover up the low-level vortex in the central Caribbean, and they stubbornly refused to shift the cone left -- and came out smelling like roses.

This time, though, more than one model runs it right up the Mississippi delta, so it's a gutsy call.

Local emergency planners have things under control down here. Obviously learned alot from Katrina. Contraflow one of the biggest. Can move tons of folks out of the general area of SELA, very quickly.
No need to rush to panic. Cautious nervousness.

By 11AM, I would imagine would be the time when local officials would make a call, one way or the other.
They do not want to pull the trigger too early, with a storm that is not even a hurricane as yet. By 11am, if Isaac has been reclassified as a hurricane; I would say that at that time, it is a safe bet a decision may be made. They certainly will be considering to evacuate the low lying areas south of Metro New Orleans.

[BigEasy]

Looks like Hurricane watches issued now for northern gulf coast, including NOLA region per the 5 am advisory

NOT including NOLA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS.

Correct; not including the metro area. But only by a few miles and for obvious reasons. They don't want the more densily populated areas of people to start moving at this time. The low lying areas of less populated areas need to move first. It is well orchestrated and planned, considering Isaac is only a storm at the moment.

[jlauderdal]

Be safe...don't underestimate a 12-18 hour period of tropical storm conditions...we are just getting going here in south fla....there are 230 miles of bad weather to our east and southeast..that will pass through



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN BROWARD
COUNTY...MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 751 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ASHORE ALONG THE
EAST COAST FROM PALM BEACH TO MIAMI DADE COUNTIES...AND MOVING
WEST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
HIALEAH...
DORAL...
SWEETWATER...
KENDALE LAKES...
MICCOSUKEE RESORT...
INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

they just issued the tornado watch so it should get more active as we get into the NE quad...that is a really broad center on key west radar...never could tighten up, will see what happens North of 26.

[Shuriken]

By 11AM, I would imagine would be the time when local officials would make a call, one way or the other.
They do not want to pull the trigger too early, with a storm that is not even a hurricane as yet.

Katrina was only a strong TS when it entered the Gulf.

[rainstorm]

i have a feeling katrina looked alot better than isaac does now when katrina was a strong TS. its like pulling teeth to get anything to form a core this season. if it stays coreless i wouldnt be shocked if it just scooted all the way west across the GOM. what is the record for the longest time a TS survived without ever becoming a cane?

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks fine to me right now. Looks like a storm that went over Haiti and Cuba, and pulling away from land. There's no reason to believe this will not strengthen to a Hurricane in the next 24 hours.

I see convection wrapping around the left side of the center, and thunderstorms firing to the southwest of the center that could easily rotate around the center and start some strengthening.

Looks much, much better than it did 3.5 hours ago.

[ronjon]

Looks fine to me right now. Looks like a storm that went over Haiti and Cuba, and pulling away from land. There's no reason to believe this will not strengthen to a Hurricane in the next 24 hours.

I see convection wrapping around the left side of the center, and thunderstorms firing to the southwest of the center that could easily rotate around the center and start some strengthening.

Looks much, much better than it did 3.5 hours ago.

Agreed, Issac's starting to get that classic tropical cyclone look with heavy convection now expanding at the center. The waters of the SE GOM are extremely warm and this is traditionally a prime intensification area. Upper level conditions are good. See no reason why it may not be a hurricane by this evening.

[AdamFirst]

Driving back home from early shift at work on the Turnpike when I ran into a classic rain band

Dark ominous low clouds, blinding rain, gusts pushing against my car

then in four minutes it was gone

I'm not going out today

[wxman57]

Looking more like a MS landfall early Wednesday, the 7th anniversary of Katrina's hit on MS.

wxman57 you got a city picked out for where Isaac's eye might pass thru? I just want to make sure I am on the west side of the eye please, thanks

Batten down the hatches, Frank. This will be your new house's first big test. Could easily be Gulfport. Possibly west of there. Looking at most likely Cat 2 (Georges comes to mind) but possible Cat 3.