ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JamesCaneTracker]

Isaac will not amount to much of anything (rains and some wind) for South Florida and the Keys. It may be a different story as he heads north.

But this storm has always had issues in development and whether it is dry air or multiple lows or whatever. It has been an underachiever which is fine with me.

But unfortunately this is what folks remember the next time there is a threat.

First you NEED the disclaimer for this statement... 2nd it prob. Already as strong as it was in Haiti and there was at least 2 or 3 deaths over there as a result. All it takes for lives to be lost is people not taking this system seriously and going out and doing something stupid... It MAY only be a tropical storm as it moves through the keys but it can still do damage!

[WxEnthus]

When is recon going in?

Wish they had a plane in there now, seeing as how this will be a pretty crucial update (11am) for many people.

I think 1:30EDT is when we will start seeing stats from recon.

There is a Recon flight almost into the system. Should be ready for a center pass in the next half hour to an hour.

I thought the one out there currently is a sampling flight? I could be wrong. Does anyone have the flight plan for today?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I have to agree with 70mph and 994-995mb pressure at 11. Just my guess.

[cheezyWXguy]

Something to keep in mind...while Isaac may be getting better organized, be careful of using radar to draw conclusions. As the center gets closer to radar, the resolution is better, so the presentation will look better too.

Thats true, but after seeing various loops from the cuban radar last night, the banding its showing atm is an improvement from last night. Not a dramatic improvement, but it does hold consistent with a system that has strengthened from 60 to 65-70mph.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1
Sombrero Key Buoy shows a 29.62 reading and dropping (=about 990 mb)
Position 24.6 81.1

[galaxy401]

They'll probably keep it at 65 mph for the next advisory and wait for recon to see what they find.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Isaac will not amount to much of anything (rains and some wind) for South Florida and the Keys. It may be a different story as he heads north.

But this storm has always had issues in development and whether it is dry air or multiple lows or whatever. It has been an underachiever which is fine with me.

But unfortunately this is what folks remember the next time there is a threat.

First you NEED the disclaimer for this statement... 2nd it prob. Already as strong as it was in Haiti and there was at least 2 or 3 deaths over there as a result. All it takes for lives to be lost is people not taking this system seriously and going out and doing something stupid... It MAY only be a tropical storm as it moves through the keys but it can still do damage!

Also, I would be careful what you say because this could make landfall as a major hurricane, and haiti has reported over half a dozen deaths. Try telling Isaac was nothing to those people living in shelters in haiti.

[cycloneye]

Plane is approaching.

[artist]

When is recon going in?

Wish they had a plane in there now, seeing as how this will be a pretty crucial update (11am) for many people.

There is a Recon flight almost into the system. Should be ready for a center pass in the next half hour to an hour.

I thought the one out there currently is a sampling flight? I could be wrong. Does anyone have the flight plan for today?

there are two sampling flights going on right now as well s a regular flight just on the edges of Isaac right now.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Betcha NHC waits until last minute to intensify this thing if they decide to.

[WxEnthus]

Somewhat surprising that it's trying to build an eyewall even though the coc is still so close to the Cuban coast.

[cjrciadt]

Betcha NHC waits until last minute to intensify this thing if they decide to.

Wont be shocked to see a special advisory later at 2pm if needed to upgrade Isaac.

[cheezyWXguy]

Betcha NHC waits until last minute to intensify this thing if they decide to.

No kidding, I wonder if theyll wait for recon to make its first center pass. If that report posted above of the 990mb pressure reading is true, it sounds like its going to be a tough call on intensity unless they wait.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Betcha NHC waits until last minute to intensify this thing if they decide to.

Wont be shocked to see a special advisory later at 2pm if needed to upgrade Isaac.

That's pretty reasonable and likely.

[Noah]

Plane is approaching.

This is an amazing photo.. where can I link to such photos?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Betcha NHC waits until last minute to intensify this thing if they decide to.

No kidding, I wonder if theyll wait for recon to make its first center pass. If that report posted above of the 990mb pressure reading is true, it sounds like its going to be a tough call on intensity unless they wait.

And playing the wait game makes a difference of a sucessful evacuation and diaster, or a bad call on intensity, and less trust. If I were the nhc I'd be sweating now.

[Aric Dunn]

well luckily it did not intensify like it could have. stayed close enough to the coast.

[galaxy401]

By the time recon gets there, it will past the 10 am advisory. I never seen them post an advisory past the offical time.

[WxEnthus]

I thought the one out there currently is a sampling flight? I could be wrong. Does anyone have the flight plan for today?

there are two sampling flights going on right now as well s a regular flight just on the edges of Isaac right now.

Thanks, I see it on GE now. Getting close but there is little chance of adding any data to the 11am update, unless they push it back a bit to get an initial pressure reading. I know they must have their reasons but sometimes the timing of recon is a bit mystifying.

[Sanibel]

Should see Gulf Stream intensification play out over the next few hours.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.