ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4821 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:07 am

Rotation is starting to show up nicely now on the long range Key West radar.... Using GR-3 I believe I pinpointed to the red circle.. anyone else with the software care to confirm that... the other possibility is the white circle

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: Re:

#4822 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:08 am

thetraveler wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Well, I'm solidly in the new 5 day cone of uncertainty.


Then you will probably be fine. That is the best place to be 5 days out, just ask the folks east of PCB, lol.


We are now less than 3 days from landfall, about 70 hours away according to NHC.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23007
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4823 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:08 am

gone2beach wrote:
If I remember correctly, Katrinia was a real slow mover in comparison to Isaac?


I'm well aware of Long Beach. Drove through there taking photos of the damage after Katrina. Unbelievable devastation. This will be no Katrina, most likely. Could go in to your west, meaning possibly 10-18 foot surge into Pass Christian/Long Beach. Too much uncertainty as to its wind field size and organization to be confident on surge height. Prepare for the worst just in case. Not much difference in forward speed compared to Katrina. Little slower.
0 likes   

User avatar
WxEnthus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:33 am
Location: Eastern U.S.

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4824 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:09 am

Ugh, not happy about the shift west either. Although we're far removed from the coast we'll be to the east of the center and that will likely bring heavy rains and t-storms over our area just in time for Labor Day weekend (first stretch of time I've taken off work all year, of course).

Of course, that's nothing compared to the potential impact of the coastal areas. I hope folks are watching the advisories and getting their plans in motion.
0 likes   
    Disclaimer: Posts herein are my amateur opinion only and should not be used for making important decisions. Defer to the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for official guidance.

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4825 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:10 am

Jevo wrote:Rotation is starting to show up nicely now on the long range Key West radar.... Using GR-3 I believe I pinpointed to the red circle.. anyone else with the software care to confirm that... the other possibility is the white circle

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/7677/rad2h.png


A few more frames have come in.. Im about 95% certain it's the red circle now.. This should help with the wobble watching
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6114
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4826 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:10 am

Jevo wrote:Rotation is starting to show up nicely now on the long range Key West radar.... Using GR-3 I believe I pinpointed to the red circle.. anyone else with the software care to confirm that... the other possibility is the white circle

[img]http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/7677/rad2h.png[/i]

looks to me like your red circle is the southern 2/3 of the developing eye, Ive been following it on wunderground's key west radar and the center seems quite apparent.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7193
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4827 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:11 am

Jevo wrote:Rotation is starting to show up nicely now on the long range Key West radar.... Using GR-3 I believe I pinpointed to the red circle.. anyone else with the software care to confirm that... the other possibility is the white circle

Image


looks like a true center forming within the broad center on my gr2..your screen shot looks very similar to what i am seeing on gr2
0 likes   

User avatar
WxEnthus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:33 am
Location: Eastern U.S.

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4828 Postby WxEnthus » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:13 am

Jevo wrote:
Jevo wrote:Rotation is starting to show up nicely now on the long range Key West radar.... Using GR-3 I believe I pinpointed to the red circle.. anyone else with the software care to confirm that... the other possibility is the white circle

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/7677/rad2h.png


A few more frames have come in.. Im about 95% certain it's the red circle now.. This should help with the wobble watching


It looks like the red circle is the center to me, too. That's the spot that everything seems to be rotating around. Of course with spotty convection radar can be deceiving.
0 likes   
    Disclaimer: Posts herein are my amateur opinion only and should not be used for making important decisions. Defer to the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for official guidance.

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4829 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:14 am

CDO building quickly...here's a comparison between 4 hours ago and now.
Then:
Image
Now:
Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#4830 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:15 am

yeah jevo thats it.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

#4831 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:16 am

am i seeing things?....it looks like it is moving due west
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4832 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:16 am

When will the Recon get there?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: Re:

#4833 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:17 am

BigB0882 wrote:
thetraveler wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Well, I'm solidly in the new 5 day cone of uncertainty.


Then you will probably be fine. That is the best place to be 5 days out, just ask the folks east of PCB, lol.


We are now less than 3 days from landfall, about 70 hours away according to NHC.


I'm well inland, up near the Ohio river, so I won't be getting H winds, but we did get smacked pretty hard by Ike. Lots of tree and power line damage, some structural damage in the area. Winds were only in the 40s and 50s then, but I'm beginning to wonder if we might get a repeat of that.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2422
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4834 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:17 am

Recon should get there in about 30 minutes to the center. Wonder if they'll find an eye or not.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

SNOW_JOKE
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:47 pm
Location: United Kingdom

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4835 Postby SNOW_JOKE » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:17 am

LLC definitely with the red-circle and the first signs of a eyewall beginning to take shape within the circulation. CAT1 for the keys is a confident estimate given the moisture plume being injected into Isaac from the Atlantic, the same plume that's giving the FL Peninsular the 50mph gusts in places.

Another 6mph and Isaac will be CAT1.
0 likes   
For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS Websites.

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4836 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:17 am

2pm intermidiate should be interesting.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4837 Postby Portastorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:17 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:When will the Recon get there?


You can find out about this in our Recon and Recon discussion threads. Head on over for more info.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3396
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#4838 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:18 am

Isaac appears to be wrapping up nicely.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
gone2beach
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 1:20 pm
Location: Long Beach, MS

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4839 Postby gone2beach » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:18 am

wxman57 wrote:
gone2beach wrote:
If I remember correctly, Katrinia was a real slow mover in comparison to Isaac?


I'm well aware of Long Beach. Drove through there taking photos of the damage after Katrina. Unbelievable devastation. This will be no Katrina, most likely. Could go in to your west, meaning possibly 10-18 foot surge into Pass Christian/Long Beach. Too much uncertainty as to its wind field size and organization to be confident on surge height. Prepare for the worst just in case. Not much difference in forward speed compared to Katrina. Little slower.


Thanks....hopefully it won't sit so long over the area and spread some rains where they are really needed. Our AM temp this morning was just 72, compared to 79 last year, same date. We are running a few degress lower (and not quite as humid either) as we were a year ago, in general.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20020
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4840 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:18 am

saved Key West radar loop

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests