ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NOAGUY504]

I can't believe the local mets on the radio here in New Orleans (WWL). They just said that there was "uncertainty" with the models with some going to Florida and some going over us. WTF???

What uncertainty??

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

The people I am talking to are complacent because of the local news. I've talked to neighbors and friends who have said "they saying it still might go to florida" etc.. How can it go to florida when no models have been taking it to florida???

I just never understand the local weather mets and media. I know they don't want to panic people but it was the same thing for Katrina, 3 days before Katrina made landfall ALL of the local mets said " not a concern for us, NOT coming close to us" so people let their guards down. Now they are doing it again. They going to wait till later tonight or tomorrow morning to sound the alarm and say " now it's coming this way" and its not going to give people enough time to prepare.

/rant

Just goes to show you can't wait on the powers to be to make those judgement calls for you. If you think you are in harm's way and need to leave - no reason to wait around for anyone else, if you have to means.

In some fairness, they may be talking about the Euro and UKMET which only one is shown on that plot. Both of the 00z runs showed a western panhandle hit. This was also talked about in the 11 am NHC disc.

When 18 models show LA/MS and 2 show FL and they make it sound like " uncertainty" with the models, we don't know, 50/50 it could go to florida, I think that is irresponsible. Especially after they have been hammering into everyone's head the last couple days "it's going to florida panhandle" so they making people think it's still going to go to florida but has a chance to come to us when that should be the complete opposite.

[jinftl]

Had the Mayor called for a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans since the city is under a hurricane watch? Under 72 hours to possible landfall so the wait-and-see window is over if I am correct - the city takes 72 hours to empty.

If this is off topic of Isaac, i apologize.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what effect will that have on the track?

this jump not much.. but it the nw motion continues then the 12z model that are showing more wnw motion now will change. just have to see if this deepens.

[Recurve]

Read the 11 am NHC discussion about uncertainty:

SNIP:

THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL
MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY
3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

[tropicwatch]

recon showing taking a jog to the nw and radar is showing the center possibly being pulled to the convection to its north. getting very close the key west right now.

I was just looking at that and Isaac is doing pretty good. Slowly getting its act together. Once it gets further away from Cuba and pass the keys, I think she will be looking even better. JMHO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really glad this storm is having trouble geting its act together. Tonight will be interesting though

[NOAGUY504]

Update from local mets in SETX (Beaumont area):

Synopsis......Isaac is now moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and should become a hurricane late today or tonight as it continues to move to the west-northwest about 18 mph.

A track generally toward the Louisiana coastline around New Orleans is expected with landfall near Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi Wednesday evening. Some computer models then take Isaac more westerly with some risk that the storm could move into East Texas Friday. Obviously, a more westerly track will bring us much more of an impact Thursday and Friday with gusty winds and locally heavy rains. By the way, there is the chance that Isaac could become a CAT2 or CAT3 at landfall Wednesday night.

This is a difficult forecast and we will have another update late this afternoon.

http://kfdm.com/weather/

That's funny, the Beaumont mets know more about whats going to happen here then our local mets which are still telling people it could still go to florida.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though TWC keeps stating that the hurricane hunters aren't finding winds to justify 65 mph, I don't see them bringing the wind speed down. I think it's way too close to the keys for them to do that....

[duris]

Had the Mayor called for a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans since the city is under a hurricane watch? Under 72 hours to possible landfall so the wait-and-see window is over if I am correct - the city takes 72 hours to empty.

If this is off topic of Isaac, i apologize.

Nope, and not a word on NOLA emergency management text or Twitter alerts. Naginesque.

[NOAGUY504]

Really glad this storm is having trouble geting its act together. Tonight will be interesting though

Im not going to count it out yet, for not having had it's act together and looking pretty ragged on satellite over the last couple days it managed to have 60+ mph winds and cross land and not skip a beat. Once it gets into the open warm water of the GOM I am scored it might bomb out and jump 25-30 mph in 24 hours or less. At this point I think a landfall between Biloxi and LAfayette is very very likely we just dont know yet if it's going to be 75mph or 150mph. I always thought these storms would take time to ramp up then I watched Katrina bomb out after crossing florida and now know what they can do in just 24 hours.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like a nice band developing to the south, and the two bands are now trying to wrap around the center.

Consolidating, imo.

[Texashawk]

Bad as things may be looking, keep in mind that this storm is still (technically) still in the Carribbean. There's still time to sort things out.

[psyclone]

Update from local mets in SETX (Beaumont area):

Synopsis......Isaac is now moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and should become a hurricane late today or tonight as it continues to move to the west-northwest about 18 mph.

A track generally toward the Louisiana coastline around New Orleans is expected with landfall near Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi Wednesday evening. Some computer models then take Isaac more westerly with some risk that the storm could move into East Texas Friday. Obviously, a more westerly track will bring us much more of an impact Thursday and Friday with gusty winds and locally heavy rains. By the way, there is the chance that Isaac could become a CAT2 or CAT3 at landfall Wednesday night.

This is a difficult forecast and we will have another update late this afternoon.

http://kfdm.com/weather/

That's funny, the Beaumont mets know more about whats going to happen here then our local mets which are still telling people it could still go to florida.

no one knows what's going to happen and the NHC mentions greater uncertainty than usual. the Euro still takes the storm to the western panhandle, they are under a hurricane watch and they remain in the forecast cone so it still could go to Florida.

[Time_Zone]

Pressure falling

[GCANE]

Rain rate continues to increase as Isaac moves into the unstable air mass

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

[HurricaneBrain]

Isaac looks to be organizing, getting ready to become a hurricane tonight.

[PTrackerLA]

LA Governor Bobby Jindal holding a meeting at 3:15pm. I would expect to see things escalate rapidly this afternoon. It's TIME to get the word out. I've contacted everyone I know in New Orleans urging them to be prepared to leave tonight or tomorrow morning. The attitude is "huh?" This is scary.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I can't believe the local mets on the radio here in New Orleans (WWL). They just said that there was "uncertainty" with the models with some going to Florida and some going over us. WTF???

What uncertainty??

[ img]http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09[/img]

95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

The people I am talking to are complacent because of the local news. I've talked to neighbors and friends who have said "they saying it still might go to florida" etc.. How can it go to florida when no models have been taking it to florida???

I just never understand the local weather mets and media. I know they don't want to panic people but it was the same thing for Katrina, 3 days before Katrina made landfall ALL of the local mets said " not a concern for us, NOT coming close to us" so people let their guards down. Now they are doing it again. They going to wait till later tonight or tomorrow morning to sound the alarm and say " now it's coming this way" and its not going to give people enough time to prepare.

/rant

Professional Mets in your area are probably not going to make any statement above an uncertainty because the storm is still so far out from you. the "windshield wiper" effect on the models is probably still not over, and it is just as likely to switch back east or even further west than hit your area. Take deep breaths and observe over the next day or so. If you do feel like you are in harms way, by all means get out.

[TwisterFanatic]

Maybe some drier air being sucked in off Cuba from the southeast, but that will change as it pulls away.

[BigB0882]

LA Governor Bobby Jindal holding a meeting at 2pm. I would expect to see things escalate rapidly this afternoon. It's TIME to get the word out. I've contacted everyone I know in New Orleans urging them to be prepared to leave tonight or tomorrow morning. The attitude is "huh?" This is scary.

It truly is. Everyone I have talked to, including the in-laws in Slidell, all think it is going to Florida and don't believe me when I say it very well could hit us. Even when I start to convince them they say "but it is only a tropical storm." I have also been calling all my family in SETX as they need to be as aware as we are.